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RPI (and more) 3/24/08

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  • RPI (and more) 3/24/08

    WSU's RPI ranking has risen to the #10 (warrannolan.com) to #12 (Boydsworld) range.

    Looking quickly over the RPI of the Shox opponents thus far, there don't appear to be many teams that are helping WSU attain that ranking. Teams like Harvard (198 warrannolan.com RPI), LeMoyne (142), Fordham (132), IllSt (71), TCU (58) are dragging on WSU's current ranking. LBSU (1) is the only opponent thus far that is above WSU's current ranking, Washington State (26) is next. WSU's SoS is around 36, pretty mediocre, but surprisingly high considering the number of games vs. weak opponents. Look for a drop in SoS after this week. Note WSU's final #'s for 2007: SoS - 44, RPI - 24, W/L - 52-22 (.702).

    I'll stick by my earlier assertion that winning (i.e. sweeping) vs. the bad teams does not provide a huge negative influence on the RPI ranking - or at least not too bad anyway this time of year.

    That said, however, this weeks opponents Binghamton (235) and North Dakota State (193) are certainly not RPI boosters. This means a sweep of all 5 games will be important. Looking further ahead, the Shox play 9 of the next 10 at home, which should keep the the W/L percentage rising. The current 11-game winning streak, however, is making me nervous. Teams seem to have a tendency to get overconfident and/or the opponents come in with a little extra motivation to end long streaks. A couple or three losses might sneak up to bring the team back to earth a bit, and KU (128) and ORU (30) won't give a damn about a long winning streak. Mid-week starters Kelley and Maune will need to be sharp and the offense needs to work on taking advantage of opportunities - there were 11 runners stranded on Sunday making that game unnecessarily close.

    If the Shocks can get to 24-3, I'd expect a Top 5 ranking in the RPI AND the polls. 22-5 should be good for Top 10.

    --'85.
    Basketball Season Tix since '77-78 . . . . . . Baseball Season Tix since '88

  • #2
    I noticed that with last night's victory we fell four spots in WarrenNolan's RPI from 10 to 14. This week is going to be painful even if we go 6-0!!!

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    • #3
      Originally posted by shockfan89
      I noticed that with last night's victory we fell four spots in WarrenNolan's RPI from 10 to 14. This week is going to be painful even if we go 6-0!!!
      That's why we better go 6-0.

      5-1, to me, is an unacceptable week in this situation.
      Deuces Valley.
      ... No really, deuces.
      ________________
      "Enjoy the ride."

      - a smart man

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      • #4
        Originally posted by shockfan89
        I noticed that with last night's victory we fell four spots in WarrenNolan's RPI from 10 to 14. This week is going to be painful even if we go 6-0!!!
        Yip, that's the price WSU will pay for playing in the MVC as we move into that portion of the schedule.

        WSU has to do well during mid-week games and has to dominate the MVC to keep their RPI respectable.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by shockfan89
          I noticed that with last night's victory we fell four spots in WarrenNolan's RPI from 10 to 14. This week is going to be painful even if we go 6-0!!!
          Yes, it did.

          Look, also at the actual RPI Score, in addition to the Rank. There is a big cluster of teams below Rank #10 at .61XX and just below. There is going to be a lot of movement within this cluster.

          Gene has said Binghamtom won their league last season, so if they're as good as all that, their drag on our RPI might be mitigated later on as they start winning more games.

          I didn't, however, see anything that made me think they could compete with the Shox. 6-0, book it.

          --'85.
          Basketball Season Tix since '77-78 . . . . . . Baseball Season Tix since '88

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Shocker85
            Originally posted by shockfan89
            I noticed that with last night's victory we fell four spots in WarrenNolan's RPI from 10 to 14. This week is going to be painful even if we go 6-0!!!
            Yes, it did.

            Look, also at the actual RPI Score, in addition to the Rank. There is a big cluster of teams below Rank #10 at .61XX and just below. There is going to be a lot of movement within this cluster.

            Gene has said Binghamtom won their league last season, so if they're as good as all that, their drag on our RPI might be mitigated later on as they start winning more games.

            I didn't, however, see anything that made me think they could compete with the Shox. 6-0, book it.

            --'85.
            Like Fordham last year, Binghamton probably did look as a decent team to schedule for this season. They won the American East conference last year with a 17-5 record I believe and their overall was like 28-19. Obviously, they are not playing like that this year, I wish they had.

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            • #7
              Originally posted by KC Shox
              Like Fordham last year, Binghamton probably did look as a decent team to schedule for this season. They won the American East conference last year with a 17-5 record I believe and their overall was like 28-19. Obviously, they are not playing like that this year, I wish they had.
              Yep. Maybe the road is taking its toll on them and once they finally get some home games they'll improve. Based on the records above, their non-conference record was about 11-14. Maybe that league is just bad.

              I thought their starter really put them in a hole by seeming afraid to challenge hitters. 2 walks and a wild pitch in the first inning were compounded by the error. He probably threw > 60 pitches in those first two innings. After that, the hole was too deep for them to recover.

              Good for us, bad for them.

              --'85.
              Basketball Season Tix since '77-78 . . . . . . Baseball Season Tix since '88

              Comment


              • #8
                Two wins this week and RPI drops from 10 to 20 per WarrenNolan.

                N. Dakota St. is little better than Binghamton (191 vs 232), but I expect similar trends through the weekend.

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                • #9
                  RPI

                  Although people almost always look at the rank (now 20th for the Shocks, according to Warren Nolan), as 85 observes, RPI is actually a number (currently .6070, says Nolan).

                  Sometimes it's actually possible for the rank to fall even if the number goes up, depending on what other teams around you do, but that wasn't the case this week so far. WSU started at .6297, but playing two games against a Binghamton team with a 5-11 record coming into the series caused the substantial drop in RPI. (Remember, half of the RPI number is your opponent's winning percentage, and Binghamton's 5-11 translates to .3125, which is a definite downer.)

                  North Dakota State's record is a little better, but not much -- they're 4-7, (including a three-game sweep at the hands of 16-9 Kansas), which works out to .3636. As SB notes, that won't help WSU's RPI cause, even if the Shocks win. By the way, NDSU has been off for six days, according to the schedule I saw, so they may have a little rust to knock off.

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                  • #10
                    I know a few guys that can knock the rust off real quick for um

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                    • #11
                      Looks like the NDS victory dropped WSU RPI ~0.007 (approximately 4 spots). Went from 20 to 24th. So with 3 mores games this weekend, that could be quite substantial.

                      Though WSU should have the ability to recover that if they have a good week next week against mid-week opponents and in the big SWMO series.

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by SB Shock
                        Looks like the NDS victory dropped WSU RPI ~0.007 (approximately 4 spots). Went from 20 to 24th. So with 3 mores games this weekend, that could be quite substantial.

                        Though WSU should have the ability to recover that if they have a good week next week against mid-week opponents and in the big SWMO series.
                        Is anyone familiar with the NPI? I know it is Nolan's Power Index but not sure how it is different? It continues to climb and is up to 15th. It appears a bit flawed with Canisius at #2 even though they have a SOS of 263!

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                        • #13
                          The RPI may be dropping, but how's WSU doing in the much more important "eye test" rankings?

                          Or does that only affect basketball?
                          The future's so bright - I gotta wear shades.
                          We like to cut down nets and get sized for championship rings.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Aargh
                            The RPI may be dropping, but how's WSU doing in the much more important "eye test" rankings?

                            Or does that only affect basketball?
                            I think that is very valid! If we finish 47-9 we will be just fine!!!!

                            Did everyone see the schedule now has a game with Oral Roberts May 13th in Wichita. So we will play them twice at home this year?

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by shockfan89
                              Originally posted by Aargh
                              The RPI may be dropping, but how's WSU doing in the much more important "eye test" rankings?

                              Or does that only affect basketball?
                              I think that is very valid! If we finish 47-9 we will be just fine!!!!

                              Did everyone see the schedule now has a game with Oral Roberts May 13th in Wichita. So we will play them twice at home this year?
                              Yeah, I had raised that question last week, but apparently, ORU was already on the schedule for a 2 for 1 series this year. I thought it was a make up game that benefitted us by playing it at home, but a couple guys pointed out the series was already scheduled like this before the season began.

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