2016 MVC Tournament

[SB Shock]

It tells me pitching and defense win more games than hitting. Someone should pass that along to the coaching staff. :)

No, what is says if u want to be a good team you have to be good in all phases of the game. You will only be as good as your weakest link.

Bill James came up with the "baseball pythag theorem" - which provides a very good prediction on winning %. You can easily do trade studies and what ifs playing around with runs scored and runs allowed per game to see what could have been.


W%=[(Runs Scored)^2]/[(Runs Scored)^2 + (Runs Allowed)^2]
More accurate versions of the formula use 1.81 or 1.83

[1972Shocker]

W%=[(Runs Scored)^2]/[(Runs Scored)^2 + (Runs Allowed)^2]
More accurate versions of the formula use 1.81 or 1.83

Using the power of 1.83 I come up with W% = 0.450 for this year's Shocker team. Actual winning percentage was 0.375. Perhaps the under-performance relative to the formulary prediction can be attributable to a lack of BBIQ and/or mental toughness/experience.

[shockfan89_]

No, what is says if u want to be a good team you have to be good in all phases of the game. You will only be as good as your weakest link.

Thanks for correcting me, what I actually meant is what we have been saying all year long, you can't win with just one phase of the game.

[Cdizzle]

Or coaching.

[SB Shock]

Using the power of 1.83 I come up with W% = 0.450 for this year's Shocker team. Actual winning percentage was 0.375. Perhaps the under-performance relative to the formulary prediction can be attributable to a lack of BBIQ and/or mental toughness/experience.

A few years ago, I had looked at the how WSU performed verus the pythag theorem. I found the best exponent for them was 1.6. My hypothesis why this is lower then the traditional number is due to schedule quality. You play some really bad teams and rack-up some 20-1 victorys will skew things.

In general the difference between projected is attributed to being lucky/unlucky. FWIW, from 2012 thru 2016 - WSU has underachieved every year relative to their runs score/allowed. So either Butler is snake bit, unlucky (luck will change at some point) or bad coach.





But for discussion sake, if you take this year offense and combine it with the following year pitching/defense the projected record would be:

2015 Pitching (5.71 rpg) 30-26
2014 Pitching (4.03 rpg) 39-17
2013 Pitching (4.15 rpg) 38-18
2012 Pitching (4.23 rpg) 38-18

So assuming WSU hitters are capable doing some thing similar as the 2016 season, the pitching/fielding will have to get better by 2-2.5 runs per game next year if they are going to be a good team (meaning at-large quality). The trendlines don't support that will happen. The plot below shows the average of runs score per game or runs allowed per game.

[WSUwatcher]

Well, SB, I'm not too worried about the pitching trend continuing, because I don't see next year's Shocks giving up 8+ runs / game, as they would if you project the last couple of years out one more. That's Al Gore hockey stick stuff, and about equally as plausible.

What we do need to see, however, is a reversal back to the pre-Butler trend of 2011-14 -- and I agree with you that the likelihood of that occurring is not great as long as WSU has the combination of Butler recruiting pitchers and Kemnitz coaching Butler's pitching recruits. That parlay simply cannot be allowed to continue.

[Cdizzle]

SIU wins Game 1 over Evansville, 4-3. Both teams pitching should still be in pretty good shape.

http://stats.statbroadcast.com/broadcast/?id=131962

[mr_baseball]

....This is how I feel about our tourney chances.

[Cdizzle]

DBU leading ISUr 6-0 after 6. Not that I think WSU will have a say in the champion, but if they are to, the winner of the other bracket needs to lose a game to chew up more pitching.

[shockfan89_]

DBU leading ISUr 6-0 after 6. Not that I think WSU will have a say in the champion, but if they are to, the winner of the other bracket needs to lose a game to chew up more pitching.

It is now 9-0 in the bottom of the 7th. I assume Poche will be done after 91 pitches in 7 innings. He would be in pretty good shape to start Saturday night if they don't need him before then.

[Cdizzle]

Poche is back out for the 8th. I would've probably gone with your method. But they did win the league, so what the hell do I know.

[shockfan89_]

Maybe he will throw 110 pitches today and still be ready to go Saturday night?

[Cdizzle]

Maybe he will throw 110 pitches today and still be ready to go Saturday night?

Most likely. And if we're lucky enough to get there, I'm sure we'd go down with a whimper.

[Cdizzle]

I guess now we know why they stuck with Poche.

Now 9-5 in the 9th.

Edit: 9-5 Final DBU wins Game 2. WSU game will start around 3PM central.

[1972Shocker]

Both of the Valley 1st team relief pitchers are from DBU (Seth Elledge and Dalton Higgins). As you would expect in a 9-0 game neither was utilized in this game.

Poche ended up at 101 pitches.