Hey, SB -- I'm not sure exactly what you mean by the 1%-3% improvement per year: are you saying that a guy who hit .300 and improves 1% would then hit .303 after the improvement?
In any case, the Boyd Nation conclusion isn't surprising; Bill James and the sabermetrics gang have made essentially the same discovery in pro ball, namely that players' minor league hitting from one year to the next is in general actually pretty stable and steady, as well as a reasonably good predictor of potential major league performance. Thus it shouldn't exactly shock anyone that the same would apply to guys who are the same age as young, or youngish, minor leaguers but just chose to go to college instead.
In any case, the Boyd Nation conclusion isn't surprising; Bill James and the sabermetrics gang have made essentially the same discovery in pro ball, namely that players' minor league hitting from one year to the next is in general actually pretty stable and steady, as well as a reasonably good predictor of potential major league performance. Thus it shouldn't exactly shock anyone that the same would apply to guys who are the same age as young, or youngish, minor leaguers but just chose to go to college instead.
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