Regional Projection 5/25

[SB Shock]

Eugene Regional
Host: Oregon {4}
1. Oregon 42-14 #5 (P12 Automatic)
4. Southern Illinois 31-27 #111 (MVC Automatic)
2. Clemson 32-25 #31 (ACC at large)
3. New Mexico 34-22 #61 (MWC Automatic)

Waco Regional
Host: Baylor {3}
1. Baylor 43-13 #4 (B12 Automatic)
4. Prairie View 28-23 #227 (SWAC Automatic)
2. Dallas Baptist 39-17 #21 (Independent at large)
3. Tulane 38-18 #55 (CUSA Automatic)

Houston Regional
Host: Rice
1. Rice 40-16 #15 (CUSA at large)
4. Cornell 31-15 #126 (Ivy Automatic)
2. TCU 36-17 #30 (MWC at large)
3. Missouri State 39-20 #37 (MVC at large)

Gary Regional
Host: Purdue
1. Purdue 42-12 #14 (B10 Automatic)
4. Valparaiso 33-22 #142 (Horizon Automatic)
2. Mississippi State 36-22 #24 (SEC at large)
3. Indiana State 41-17 #47 (MVC at large)

Last Five In: Texas, Michigan State, Indiana State, Sam Houston State, New Mexico State
Next Ten Out: Wichita State, College of Charleston, Gonzaga, Auburn, Virginia Tech, Georgia, Maryland, Washington, Utah Valley State, Long Beach State

[shox1989]

I don't see Texas or Sam Houston State getting in over WSU. Texas also went 0-2 in their conference tournament and their rpi is #50 vs. #43 for WSU. It is interesting that they have WSU as the first team out. Man that is close.

[ShockerFever]

I don't see Texas or Sam Houston State getting in over WSU. Texas also went 0-2 in their conference tournament and their rpi is #50 vs. #43 for WSU. It is interesting that they have WSU as the first team out. Man that is close.

And that assumes NO other upsets will occur in the conference tournaments. Well, sorry Pumper. The Big East is stealing a bid. The Southland might be stealing a bid. The potential is there for others as well.

While I agree that Texas in no way, shape, or form deserves a bid, they WILL get one. The bias is far too great. I will bet you a sum of bills that Texas will be getting in. PM me if interested.

[ShockTalk]

And that assumes NO other upsets will occur in the conference tournaments. Well, sorry Pumper. The Big East is stealing a bid. The Southland might be stealing a bid. The potential is there for others as well.

While I agree that Texas in no way, shape, or form deserves a bid, they WILL get one. The bias is far too great. I will bet you a sum of bills that Texas will be getting in. PM me if interested.

The only stealing of a bid that counts as far as WSU is concerned is the one that happened in the Valley.

People on here should know how I feel about the BCS conferences, but the Texas/WSU is not a bias issue. #6 MVC was going to get 3 of 8 teams in, #4 Big XII 4 of 9. If both conferences have a team steal a bid, the #4 conference will get an extra bid before the #6 conference where both teams involved are so very close the same.

[WSUwatcher]

Well, 1989, I also saw the Shocks listed earlier today at the front of SEBaseball's "next ten out" list, but they were in that same spot yesterday and Gonzaga, which had been projected in, has dropped out without the Shocks moving up, so who knows how significant the order is? Besides, SEBaseball isn't on the selection committee.

Anyway, I'm as optimistic as the next guy if not more so, but I would be absolutely shocked if the selectors leave Texas out, especially to pick WSU. Not that they shouldn't -- it's easy to make the case that Texas doesn't deserve to continue, given their 0-2 finish in tourney play, mediocre overall record (worse than WSU's), relatively unimpressive RPI (worse than WSU's), and poor finish (4-6 in their last 10, with two of the wins being against Texas Southern, plus losing their last three conference series in addition to the flameout in tourney play). They're playing poorly and even worse, they have injuries out the wazoo -- especially to their pitching staff, which suggests that they're probably weaker now than they have been all year. There's absolutely no reason to think they would field a particularly representative team. Having said all that, do you seriously believe that TEXAS, especially Texas baseball, won't get every possible benefit of the doubt?

WSU's chance probably comes down to whether the selectors look at profiles dispassionately and without being swayed by names or leagues, in which case the Shocks could have a leg up on a team like Texas. WSU has the RPI on Sam Houston, but SHSU won its (admittedly mediocre) conference easily and might get rewarded for that, just as St. John's, with an even worse RPI and otherwise unimpressive resume, was the regular season co-champ of its even more mediocre league (as well as currently being unbeaten in its conference tournament -- they may win their way in). Maybe the best other candidate for WSU to sneak past would be Michigan State, which will fall behind the Shocks in RPI if they lose their next tournament game and was worse in Big Ten play than WSU was in the much stronger Valley.

For what it's worth (and I'm not on the committee either, unfortunately), here's what I think will happen: if (a) the selectors can't handle the idea of four MVC teams in the tournament -- this is baseball, for heaven's sake -- then WSU will almost surely be the odd man out. Gene and Brent and Doc will complain, especially if Texas and Michigan State and St. John's get in, and they'll all have their legitimate points. But all the Shocks had to do was not blow a couple of very winnable MVC games, such as one against Indiana State and one other, and they could have been seeded first, been in the preferable bracket, and had the regular season championship as a credential. They didn't, so too bad -- if they get the shaft, it will be their own fault for putting themselves in that position. On the other hand, if (b) the selectors look at just profiles and resumes, and not leagues or the need to give the Big Ten or Big East at least one at-large team, then WSU still has a chance, and maybe a fairly decent one. My guess is that SEBaseball's choice to put WSU on the wrong side of the bubble is based on their belief that the committee is likely to choose (a).

[ShockTalk]

Well, 1989, I also saw the Shocks listed earlier today at the front of SEBaseball's "next ten out" list, but they were in that same spot yesterday and Gonzaga, which had been projected in, has dropped out without the Shocks moving up, so who knows how significant the order is? Besides, SEBaseball isn't on the selection committee.

Anyway, I'm as optimistic as the next guy if not more so, but I would be absolutely shocked if the selectors leave Texas out, especially to pick WSU. Not that they shouldn't -- it's easy to make the case that Texas doesn't deserve to continue, given their 0-2 finish in tourney play, mediocre overall record (worse than WSU's), relatively unimpressive RPI (worse than WSU's), and poor finish (4-6 in their last 10, with two of the wins being against Texas Southern, plus losing their last three conference series in addition to the flameout in tourney play). They're playing poorly and even worse, they have injuries out the wazoo -- especially to their pitching staff, which suggests that they're probably weaker now than they have been all year. There's absolutely no reason to think they would field a particularly representative team. Having said all that, do you seriously believe that TEXAS, especially Texas baseball, won't get every possible benefit of the doubt?

WSU's chance probably comes down to whether the selectors look at profiles dispassionately and without being swayed by names or leagues, in which case the Shocks could have a leg up on a team like Texas. WSU has the RPI on Sam Houston, but SHSU won its (admittedly mediocre) conference easily and might get rewarded for that, just as St. John's, with an even worse RPI and otherwise unimpressive resume, was the regular season co-champ of its even more mediocre league (as well as currently being unbeaten in its conference tournament -- they may win their way in). Maybe the best other candidate for WSU to sneak past would be Michigan State, which will fall behind the Shocks in RPI if they lose their next tournament game and was worse in Big Ten play than WSU was in the much stronger Valley.

For what it's worth (and I'm not on the committee either, unfortunately), here's what I think will happen: if (a) the selectors can't handle the idea of four MVC teams in the tournament -- this is baseball, for heaven's sake -- then WSU will almost surely be the odd man out. Gene and Brent and Doc will complain, especially if Texas and Michigan State and St. John's get in, and they'll all have their legitimate points. But all the Shocks had to do was not blow a couple of very winnable MVC games, such as one against Indiana State and one other, and they could have been seeded first, been in the preferable bracket, and had the regular season championship as a credential. They didn't, so too bad -- if they get the shaft, it will be their own fault for putting themselves in that position. On the other hand, if (b) the selectors look at just profiles and resumes, and not leagues or the need to give the Big Ten or Big East at least one at-large team, then WSU still has a chance, and maybe a fairly decent one. My guess is that SEBaseball's choice to put WSU on the wrong side of the bubble is based on their belief that the committee is likely to choose (a).

I agree with most everything you said @WSUwatcher (including the later things about Texas), except we need to get off this Texas/WSU thing. If Texas has a mediocre record, so does WSU as there is only .005 difference. If Texas' RPI is relatively unimpressive, so is WSU's. There's only 5 spots difference, not 20, 15, or 10. And both teams left their tourney 0-2. While WSU was finishing their regular season which included CU (2-1) and Bradley (3-0), Texas had 4 of 6 road games against Baylor (1-2) and Missouri (1-2). WSU could have just as easily finished with Evansville (1-2) and Ind St (1-2).

[WSUwatcher]

I agree with most everything you said @WSUwatcher (including the later things about Texas), except we need to get off this Texas/WSU thing. If Texas has a mediocre record, so does WSU as there is only .005 difference. If Texas' RPI is relatively unimpressive, so is WSU's. There's only 5 spots difference, not 20, 15, or 10. And both teams left their tourney 0-2. While WSU was finishing their regular season which included CU (2-1) and Bradley (3-0), Texas had 4 of 6 road games against Baylor (1-2) and Missouri (1-2). WSU could have just as easily finished with Evansville (1-2) and Ind St (1-2).

All true, Talk. Personally, I think WSU should be chosen over Texas, because it isn't supposed to be the league that matters, but the team and its resume. I also believe that Texas should be downgraded because its recent injuries have made it a weaker team than its record indicates. But I'll agree that it isn't a huge, clear cut difference -- and I don't think it's going to happen, as SEBaseball obviously doesn't either. And I do think the biggest advantage Texas has is its name and affiliation.

Not complaining, just observing -- as I said before, the Shocks had it in their power to make all of this academic, and they failed to take care of business. So if they come up short, they have no room to gripe.

[shox1989]

I really don't think WSU will make it. Especially with all of the tournament upsets (although a rpi of #43 and a SOS of #39 at least keeps them in the discussion). But there is at least one site that has WSU in as of 5/25:

http://www.chasingomaha.com/college-baseball-features/2230.html


They have WSU going to Waco as a #3 seed.

[Ta town]

I will point out that they have Tulane listed as auto bid, well Tulane is 1-1 currently playing #26 UCF in losers bracket. No way Tulane takes an at large so I don't know how they figure this. Granted UAB is undefeated in CUSA tourey and if they win that will certainly take Tulane's spot on this list.

I would say no way WSU makes it but who knows.

Also that list has both TCU/UNM in from the MTN. Well UNM hasn't won the auto yet and WSU certainly stacks up well with their resume. So today I would be rooting for UCF and TCU and ECU vs UAB. There has got to be a ton of games like this today but I just looked at this particular bracket and tried to figure out where WSU might jump in.

What a crying shame, beat SIU on Tuesday and the shox would be sitting pretty good right now. Geez it's irritating when you think about it.

[WSUwatcher]

That's really what it comes down to, Ta. All of this speculating and hoping this team wins or that one loses, or thinking that WSU should get in over so and so, is avoidable in a very simple manner: just win a couple of games that could have, and probably should have been, won -- and when a team loses 25 it's not hard to find several candidates -- and the Shocks could be reasonably comfortable right now.

Remember what a pleasure it was back in March when the only question for the basketball Shockers was what seed they'd have? It works that way in baseball, too, and you can bet your last dollar that the Shocker coaches tried everything in their power to get that message across. But sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, and sometimes it isn't about you (like the elimination game against MSU) -- because the other guys, who are trying to win just as hard as you are, just kick your tail. That's baseball.

Edit: By the way, I just looked up the MWC, and they only have FIVE teams who even play baseball: TCU and New Mexico (who tied for the regular season championship at 18-6, although TCU has a far higher RPI, which is why Ta is hoping UNM doesn't add a second MWC team to the NCAA field), San Diego State, UNLV, and Air Force. The last place team, AF, was dropped and the others are playing a quick four team tournament in which UNM has the upper hand right now.

[shox1989]

That's really what it comes down to, Ta. All of this speculating and hoping this team wins or that one loses, or thinking that WSU should get in over so and so, is avoidable in a very simple manner: just win a couple of games that could have, and probably should have been, won -- and when a team loses 25 it's not hard to find several candidates -- and the Shocks could be reasonably comfortable right now.

Remember what a pleasure it was back in March when the only question for the basketball Shockers was what seed they'd have? It works that way in baseball, too, and you can bet your last dollar that the Shocker coaches tried everything in their power to get that message across. But sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't, and sometimes it isn't about you (like the elimination game against MSU) -- because the other guys, who are trying to win just as hard as you are, just kick your tail. That's baseball.

Edit: By the way, I just looked up the MWC, and they only have FIVE teams who even play baseball: TCU and New Mexico (who tied for the regular season championship at 18-6, although TCU has a far higher RPI, which is why Ta is hoping UNM doesn't add a second MWC team to the NCAA field), San Diego State, UNLV, and Air Force. The last place team, AF, was dropped and the others are playing a quick four team tournament in which UNM has the upper hand right now.

I think the Valley should only play a "quick 4 team tournament". Having your #6 team play your #8 team in the tournament championship game is down right embarrassing.

[shockfan89_]

I agree! You do know if this happened in the ACC or the SEC they would say this shows the caliber of teams from top to bottom and proves 8 or 9 teams deserve bids...

[WSUwatcher]

I think the Valley should only play a "quick 4 team tournament". Having your #6 team play your #8 team in the tournament championship game is down right embarrassing.

I'd actually go for that, too, and it would provide a better product and be another way to give the regular season some meaning, but the league's large contingent of non-serious weak sisters in baseball would never accept it. They want their chance to catch lightning in a bottle for a few days.

Maybe if the weaklings don't fend off DBU in realignment this time around and the Valley ends up with nine baseball teams, they'll at least go back to a six-team field. That would be a step in the right direction.

[shox1989]

The Chasing Omaha web-site updated their regional projections this morning (Sunday) and they have WSU as the first team out:

http://www.chasingomaha.com/college-baseball-features/chasing-omaha-regional-projections-5272012.html

This web-site had WSU in as of Friday. It looks like they dropped WSU four places after the weekend upsets. He has also dropped Texas out as well.

[DUShock]

I just hope Krusty finally hangs it up.