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Around the American 2020 Version

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  • Around the American 2020 Version

    Mixed start for the conference.

    UCF is probably the best story. 3 game sweep at Auburn and the Knights crack the poll in week 2 at #19.

    ECU is 6-1 and ranked 21. The Pirates will be good until there's a regime change.

    Tulane won 2-3 at Fullerton and is 6-1. Also swept a decent FGC team and won at previously ranked ULL. The Green Wave is good again this year but with improved pitching.

    UCONN is 3-3 against a brutal schedule. They've handed #16 Michigan their only 3 losses. 3-1 against the Wolverines and also lost to #2 Vandy.

    Houston is hard to figure out so far. They lost 2 of 3 to Youngstown State at home (both losses in extra innings) but then beat a ranked Stanford team, lost to undefeated #24 Tennessee and then lost a 3-2 10 inning thriller to current #5 Texas Tech. The Cougars are 2-4.

    Memphis is 4-3 playing 6 of their 7 games at home against inferior competition and losing their only roadie so far at Central Arkansas 5-3.

    Cincinnati is winless so far, but has played mostly solid competition. Lost all 3 at #9 Florida State and then in Georgia lost to #17 Georgia Tech but also lost to Kennesaw State and Georgia State. Small sample size and when half your games at FSU, your ERA is probably going to be elevated a bit and theirs is 8.49 six games in. They are also kicking it around a bunch fielding .954 and struggling behind the plate with 5PB and opponents successful on 80% of SBAs. I think Cincy is really well coached and overachieved last season. Let's see if they can continue that this season.

    South Florida is a mess. 6 home games against Marist and Northeastern only got them 2 wins (against Marist) and NE shut them out twice. In between they lost to Florida A&M and FSU at FSU. Losing to the Seminoles is forgivable, but losing to the Rattlers is not. After beating the Bulls 5-1, the Rattlers are now 1-5 with 2 losses to Mercer and 3 to Eastern Illinois, all in Tallahassee.

    Not a terribly interesting week in the conference.


    ECU does host Indiana and Ole Miss along with High Point in a mini tournament this weekend.

    Midweek matchups of interest include USF at Miami...that could be ugly. Cincy hosts the Trees tomorrow.

    Most other schools have relative cupcakes this week.


  • #2
    Way too early to matter but I was bored:

    Current ELO and RPI rankings per WarrenNolan


    ECU 19-7
    UCONN 33-37
    UCF 36-81
    Tulane 38-92
    Houston 73-264
    Memphis 136-189
    USF 141-283
    WSU 170-66
    UC 184-206

    Hofstra 295-172
    Texas Southern 294-211
    Ark-PB 291-254
    Nevada 265-289
    Air Force 246-239
    Northwestern State 163-68
    KSU 147-272
    Nebraska 122-169
    Kansas 121-123
    Creighton 81-222
    ORU 68-26
    Louisiana Tech 39-27
    OU 34-91
    OSU 28-39


    Rankings 2/24/2020

    Coaches Poll (useless see Stanford 1-6 scoring 2 runs or less in every game except against Houston where they scored 4, and lost)

    OSU 17
    ECU 19

    OU 29, UCONN 43 Houston 45 Creighton 54


    D1 Baseball

    UCF 19
    ECU 21
    OU 22

    Comment


    • #3
      WuDrWu , how would you rank our conference compared with other conferences? I know it's way too early to tell, but ballpark, are we a top 5 conference? Top 7? Top 10? Top 12?
      Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!

      Comment


      • #4
        Somewhere between 4-8.


        The SEC is a clear 1. PAC 12 probably 2. ACC would be right there. Big 12 is top heavy but probably a shade ahead of the American.


        BigPriest is top heavy but behind the American, imho. UCONN switching will level that just about. B1G is tough to figure. Some strong programs. Right there with the American.


        West Coast, Southern, CUSA, Sunbelt and Valley are all probably tougher than they look but have enough bad teams to drive them down, and rarely a really strong team.


        Losing UCONN hurts baseball, but if we can return to top 50 status, that should mean ECU, UH, UCF, WSU and right now at least Tulane all being strong programs. USF SHOULD be better.

        Comment


        • #5
          Okay I will pencil us in as the #6 conference and then be pleasantly surprised when WSU gets a few unexpected wins this season!
          Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!

          Comment


          • #6
            You didn't ask for my opinion, but according to WarrenNolan RPI:
            2014 6th
            2015 3rd
            2016 6th
            2017 4th
            2018 4th
            2019 5th

            I would wager 4-7 is a fairly safe bet for the AAC each year. Hopefully towards the top of that in a few years if WSU can become a buoy instead of an anchor. It's worth noting that you shouldn't equate your idea of quality basketball teams to baseball. There's a strong correlation to warm weather and baseball success. WSU was one of the outliers in that regard for many, many years. The B10 is finally starting to invest enough to move themselves up.

            Agree with Doc that losing UConn hurts the league. It feels like they are fools-gold with the location and facilities, but they've been fools-gold for 10 years, so that's just being petty at some point. The Big East is a consistently poor baseball league (again, cold-weather). Will be interesting to see if a)Penders leaves UConn for a better league, b)UConn+Creighton make that into a decent league c)UConn rules the league for a while.

            WSU/Tulane/USF are capable of rising and making this a really great baseball league.
            Last edited by Cdizzle; February 25, 2020, 12:25 PM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post
              WuDrWu , how would you rank our conference compared with other conferences? I know it's way too early to tell, but ballpark, are we a top 5 conference? Top 7? Top 10? Top 12?
              Also not worth much at all, but current predictions from WN have WSU at 13-11 in conference, finishing 4th and 34-23 overall with a 90 RPI. There's plenty wrong with those numbers but anyway.

              I think it's likely we're around .500 overall and battling for 6-7-8 in conference.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by WuDrWu View Post

                Also not worth much at all, but current predictions from WN have WSU at 13-11 in conference, finishing 4th and 34-23 overall with a 90 RPI. There's plenty wrong with those numbers but anyway.

                I think it's likely we're around .500 overall and battling for 6-7-8 in conference.
                So, sooo early for metrics.

                I am curious when they become useful/reliable. I have a sense for basketball. In baseball, you get more discrete data points, but no more connectivity (56 games instead of 30, but lots of 3-game series). My sense is that you get a higher percentage of decent non-conference matchups, and those usually continue throughout the entirety of the year. The former probably makes the gap between good/not-good more reliable and the latter means you can still get some decent movement late in the season as you aren't just trading RPI around within your league.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Cdizzle View Post
                  You didn't ask for my opinion, but according to WarrenNolan RPI:
                  2014 6th
                  2015 3rd
                  2016 6th
                  2017 4th
                  2018 4th
                  2019 5th

                  I would wager 4-7 is a fairly safe bet for the AAC each year.
                  Yeah, I mean AAC seems to be chalking up some solid wins very early on. So I can see that. Where was the MVC back in the heyday? Top-5ish as well? Where is the MVC now?

                  Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    All this baseball talk reminds me ... Jason Jordan, if you're out there, I want my damn cassette tape back!! You know the one ... the one with all the heavy bass on it!!

                    There, I got that off my chest.
                    Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Kung Wu View Post

                      Yeah, I mean AAC seems to be chalking up some solid wins very early on. So I can see that. Where was the MVC back in the heyday? Top-5ish as well? Where is the MVC now?
                      Define heyday? I don't think we have RPI numbers that go back that far. The MVC has and is still bouncing around a lot between 5 and 12ish. But some of the periods of highest national relevance (ie WSU's heyday) may not have coincided with the best RPI years for the MVC.

                      Not sure if this is the direction WuDrWu wanted this thread to go, but who cares, we're talking about baseball on ShockerNet again!

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Cdizzle View Post

                        Define heyday? I don't think we have RPI numbers that go back that far. The MVC has and is still bouncing around a lot between 5 and 12ish. But some of the periods of highest national relevance (ie WSU's heyday) may not have coincided with the best RPI years for the MVC.
                        Well, I was thinking late 80s and early to mid 90s.
                        Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Cdizzle View Post
                          You didn't ask for my opinion, but according to WarrenNolan RPI:

                          WSU/Tulane/USF are capable of rising and making this a really great baseball league.
                          Agree with this statement; could the Shockers and Tulane already be exhibiting needed improvement?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Shocker1976 View Post

                            Agree with this statement; could the Shockers and Tulane already be exhibiting needed improvement?
                            I'm really excited about WSU baseball, but we aren't there yet. It's going to take a little time.
                            Last edited by Cdizzle; February 25, 2020, 06:46 PM.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Cdizzle View Post

                              So, sooo early for metrics.

                              I am curious when they become useful/reliable. I have a sense for basketball. In baseball, you get more discrete data points, but no more connectivity (56 games instead of 30, but lots of 3-game series). My sense is that you get a higher percentage of decent non-conference matchups, and those usually continue throughout the entirety of the year. The former probably makes the gap between good/not-good more reliable and the latter means you can still get some decent movement late in the season as you aren't just trading RPI around within your league.
                              The other things weird about comparing baseball teams is that mid week games showcase pitchers especially that likely will make few if any appearances on the weekends when it matters (or postseason) yet those games mean exactly as much.

                              Comment

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