Been a Decade Since the Shockers Won 40 Games in a Season

[WuDrWu]

Here are the series we have remaining and my opinion if we have a reasonable expectation of winning the series.


Reasonable chance of winning the series:



USF 3
UC 3
MU 3
UH 3
Nebraska 4
CU 3

KU 2
KSU 1
ORU 2


These series not so much:


TU 3
UCONN 3
UCF 3
ECU 3
OSU 2
OU 2

Really considered moving CU into the bottom set here, but we matchup favorably in my opinion. I don't think it's pessimistic that we might not win more than 1 or 2 in that bottom set of games. Basically 13 games against ranked teams plus UGONE who is just more talented, and very well coached.

Just winning the 5 three game series, splitting with NU, taking 3 of the other 5 games and just 2 from the bottom set would be 17 plus 12 we have or 29. 29-26 going into the AAC Tourney which would be win or go home status in Clearwater.

Warren Nolan, which does a reasonable job at predicting (and it's still too early to put much stock in it), has us finishing 38-17 but only a 58 RPI which would probably be wrong side of the bubble, but definitely bubble territory.

One nice thing is the American has had a good 2 weeks and is up to 4 in both RPI and ELO as a conference, trailing the SEC, Big12 and ACC. I don't believe ECU will be quite as good as they predict (top 5) but UCF will, and Tulane and UGONE much better than they predict. I expect our conference to get at least 3 teams in the tourney, and a stretch for 4.


Everyone knows the SEC is the best conference, but until they make teams play road games, or adequately punish them for not, it's going to remain insanely unfair.

So far the 14 SEC teams have played 199 non-conference games, and only 26 have been road games. 6 of the 14 teams have played 0 or 1 road games. In fact, Mizzou and Kentucky have played 9 combined road games, so the other 12 teams have combined for 17 road games. If you never travel, life is pretty easy.

[Kung Wu]

Killer overview WuDrWu! This gives me something to reference back to and help set some expectations as the season progresses! When you say this is a series we could win, my cautiously optimistic self just says, "okay that means we take 2 of 3". If we do that for the first 6, that gives us 12 wins. Then we just got eek out 4 more games from the smaller series or second set of tougher teams. We can do it!

[WuDrWu]

I figured it as 2 of 3 for "winning the series". I kind of expect them to sweep either UC or USF. It's a long season, we have little to no depth and aren't exactly beating decent teams 8-1...BUT the team is playing like an actual team interested in winning games for the first time in 7 years, so there's that to build upon.

We have 6 more home games in this stand, then off to Houston. The Cougars are down a bit, don't have the lock down starting pitching they've had in recent years, and frankly just aren't quite as good as they've been. If you want to be a top 4-5 team, they are a team you need to take at least 2 from on that weekend. I think these 9 games will give us a real good idea if this is a right the ship, change the culture, enjoy some success and look forward to the return of Shocker baseball that we all know and love, or if we throw expectations out the window and refocus on some new, loftier goals.

[Cdizzle]

I'd be all in on the over of 2.5 of that bottom set. But also expect to lose more games in the top set. Hopefully it evens out.

I hope the team is shooting a little higher, but if they can grab 30 regular season wins, and do it with solid play the way they mostly have been, I'll be happy as a clam.

[ShockerFever]

30 wins would be an amazing feat with this bunch and should make Wedge AAC COY.

[Cdizzle]

30 wins would be an amazing feat with this bunch and should make Wedge AAC COY.

I don't think he'd be AAC COY, but I don't disagree with the sentiment. Like I said, I'd be very happy if we could get to that point. It seems like a good goal at this time. Challenging, but not unobtainable.

[WuDrWu]

I agree. Also in my scenario, I didn't include tomorrow's game with La Tech and a potential rescheduled game to account for the lost Nevada game, against a probable patsy.

[Shocker1976]

Thanks DrWu for the summary overview; excellent projection IMO, probably because right now I optimistically believe the Shocks are on their way to 29 victories. The team continues to improve my confidence in their chances to win and I have not met any of the coaches in person. Great memories must be developing every day for those players being involved with the Shocker coaches.

[WuDrWu]

Everyone knows the SEC is the best conference, but until they make teams play road games, or adequately punish them for not, it's going to remain insanely unfair.

So far the 14 SEC teams have played 199 non-conference games, and only 26 have been road games. 6 of the 14 teams have played 0 or 1 road games. In fact, Mizzou and Kentucky have played 9 combined road games, so the other 12 teams have combined for 17 road games. If you never travel, life is pretty easy.

Following up on this, the SEC has played 13% of it's games on the road. By comparison, the American has played 123 games, 41 on the road, 33% for the 4th best conference. What do you think the 15th or 16th best conference numbers look like?

I'm not trying to sound like Mark Adams (who is still right) and I realize there are other factors (weather being paramount among those factors) but those are biases that just aren't accounted for when determining rankings and selections in baseball. Move the season back at least 2 weeks, value road games more (not neutral games for A&M at Round Rock) or else this is just going to get worse and worse, as it has for the last 20 seasons or so.



My underlying point, and the same point I've made many times over the past few seasons, is the landscape of college baseball has changed, significantly, and likely will continue to change, probably not favorably when measured against the interests of WSU. Many seasons prior to 2010 we played more than 56 regular season games, and in some cases a lot more. And while many, if not most or all, of those years WSU challenged themselves with difficult non-conference series against the likes of LBSU, Fullerton, Arizona among others, they still played plenty of patsies, more than they do now.

In 2010 (the last 40 win season) we played games against Eastern Michigan, North Dakota (2), Central Arkansas (2), Tabor, Rogers State and Bethany. Those are 8 all but guaranteed wins against vastly inferior programs, 3 of which aren't even D1. And while the Valley was always competitive, I don't think you'll find any Bradleys, Evansvilles, Illinois States or SIUs (another 12 easier than anything we face now) in the American. Also, unless I haven't been paying attention, the American tournament is 1500 miles away (no complaints from me btw, I love the trip) and not mostly in Wichita.

Even in 2008, our last great team, when WSU won 48 games they had the follow opponents: Fordham, Northwestern, Emporia State, LeMoyne, Harvard (3), Binghamton (2), North Dakota State (4) & Tabor. 14 awful games, and then Bradley, UNI, Evansville and Illinois State (at least) who were all terrible Valley teams and worse than any American programs.


It IS different now. Trying to compare to those days isn't fair to the current program.

[1972Shocker]

So we are 14 games or 25% into our schedule. While clearly these portion of our schedule appears to be the weakest quarter section of the schedule I think a 12-2 record probably exceeds about anything most of us expected. OTOH, while the pitching and defense has been, with a couple of exceptions, very solid so far the offense the offense has done just enough to get us by.

So how that will hold up over the next 13 games which will get us through our 1st two AAC series of the year against Houston on the road and Tulane at home?

We have the finale of the LaTech series which at best would seem to be a toss up.

That is followed by a 4 game home series against Nebraska next weekend at home including a doubleheader on Saturday that will surely challenge the depth of the pitching staffs of both teams. Nebraska is 4-8 at this point and has an RPI ranking of 197 for what that is worth this early in the year. They do own a win over #13 Arizona State. They conclude a 4 game home series over 3 days against Columbia today and then host Northern Colorado at home on Tuesday and Wednesday before heading to Wichita next weekend. With the Shockers not playing a mid-week game this week that would certainly seem to favor the Shocks pitching staff. 6 games in the week prior to the series with the Shockers vs 3 games for the Shockers over that same week.

The 4-game Nebraska series is followed by a Tuesday game against Oral Roberts at Eck Stadium. ORU's is currently 5-9 with an RPI of 153. Just about all of ORU's game have been close and for whatever reason ORU always seems to play well against the Shockers. This weekend ORU is playing 3 at Dallas Baptist. DBU won the first 2 games of that series 3-2 and 3-1. ORU plays mid-week game at Missouri State this week and a 3 game series against South Dakota State next weekend.

The Shocks then open AAC play at Houston. Houston is 5-8 with an RPI of 131 at this point but their schedule is ranked #46 so they will be well tested.

Before taking on Tulane the Shocks head to Stillwater for a Tuesday game against Oklahoma State. The Cowboys are 10-5 against a SOS ranked 17th and have an RPI of 17.

Tulane is currently 12-2 against a SOS of 165 and have an RPI of 44. By comparison the Shocks are 12-2 against a SOS rated #186 with an RPI of 45.

I see the possibilities here as pretty wide ranging. We could potentially do very well in this stretch of games or we could potentially do not so well as I would expect most of the games to be close contest that would go either way.

In any case, I hope the Shocks continue to play solid baseball and don't start giving games away.

Will start the 2nd half of the season of with a road trip to #15 UCF plus we have a return game with Oklahoma State, home-and-home mid-week games against #16 Oklahoma and a road series at ECU who has an RPI ranking of #8 currently not to mention the rest of the schedule will be tougher than what we will have played during the 1st half of the season.

Hopefully, the next 13 games go well as the 2nd of the season will be quite challenging. The Shock may be lucky to go 12-16 in the 2nd half of the season and it could easily be worse that that.

[JayPak]

Really considered moving CU into the bottom set here, but we matchup favorably in my opinion.

Creighton baseball was legit last year. This year, outside of the Friday pitching tandem which is above average, Creighton sucks at all 3 facets (pitching, hitting, defense) and if the Shox don’t win this series, then you suck too.

[Cdizzle]

wrong thread nm

[Shockm]

Okay, you guys said 28 is the magic number.

We are sitting 12-2 and have not ran the guantlet yet.

Where do we get 16 wins from here?

One game at a time.

[Kung Wu]

One game at a time.

Definitely. I'd try for 2 at a time when I was younger, but it never worked out.