AAC Baseball - Player Losses & Quality Returning Players

[1972Shocker]

Now that the MLB draft is over I thought I would look at what each AAC team has in departing players and what they may have returning:

The following list shows the departing players. The 3 numbers in parenthesis are 1st Team All-AAC players who are Top 20 round draft picks and/or seniors + 2nd Team All-AAC players who are Top 20 round draft picks and/or seniors + other players who are Top 20 draft picks and seniors drafted in round 21 or later. Added to that total is the number of other seniors whe were not drafted and not on the All-AAC teams who were regualr contributors to their teams. Seniors who played sparingly were ingored. The teams are listed in order of finish. My assumption is that players drafted in the Top 20 rounds will sing pro contracts and those in later round will not. There are only 7 underclassmen in this latter category so even if some of them sing it would not have a big impact on this study

To summarize the first set of numbers are All-AAC players, Top 20 underclassmen draftees and any senior draftees. The second number is undrafted seniors who were regular contributors. So, for example, USF who is losing 6 + 0 = 6 is probably losing more quality than UConn who is losing 4 + 2 = 6.

1. Houston = (1+0+2) = 3 plus 4 = 7 players. (Includes Jr. LHP Aaron Fletcher - The AAC Pitcher of the Year - Drafted in Round 14).
2. USF = (1+4+1) = 6 plus 0 = 6 players
3. UConn = (1+2+1) = 4 plus 2 = 6 players
4. ECU = (1+1+1) = 3 plus 4 = 7 players
5. UCF = (1+0+3) = 4 plus 2 = 6 players
6. Cincy = (2+0+1) = 3 plus 5 = 8 players
7. WSU = (1+1+7) = 9 plus 1 = 10 players (This includes Keylan Killgore)
8. Tulane = (1+0+0) = 1 plus 3 = 4 players
9. Memphis = (0+0+2 = 2 plus 4 = 6 players

So the Shockers would appear to be losing the most quanity and the most quality of players if you buy the proposition that All-AAC honors and Top 20 draft picks indicates quality. Cincy comes the closest to the Shocks in terms ot total numbers departing but not in the quality of player departures.

How about the returning players. Who has the most quality returning? The following shows the number of 1st team All-AAC players either drafted in Round 24 or later or not drafted + the number of 2nd team All-AAC players either drafted in Round 24 or later or not drafted + other players drafted in Round 24 or later who I am assuming wil return.

1. Houston = (0+3+0) = 3 players
2. USF = (0+1+0) = 1 player
3. UConn = (1+0+0) = 1 player (Does not include Fr. IF Christioan Fedko - The AAC Rookie Position Player of the Year)
4. ECU = (3+1+0) = 4 players (Including So. OF/DH Bryant Packard - The AAC Player of the Year but not including Fr. LHP Alec Burleson - The AAC Rookie Pitcher of the Year)
5. UCF = (1+4+2) = 7 players
6. Cincy = (0+1+0) = 1 player
7. WSU = (1+0+0) = 1 player (That would be Luke Ritter)
8. Tulane = (0+0+2) = 2 players
9. Memphis = (0+0+1) = 1 player

Looks like UCF and ECU are leading he way in number of quality returning players followed by Houston.

Obviously the missing components are how much will the returning players who were not All-AAC picks or draft picks and which recruiting classes will contribute the most. It is somewhat interesting that there were no freshman on either the 1st or 2nd All-AAC teams (33 players in total) The numbers would indicate the Shockers, as much or more than anyone else in he league will be dependent on these two groups of players to make a move forward.

While some of the players drafted in the Top 20 rounds may return and some drafted in rounds 24 and later may not return I don't think these will be too signficant although getting Keylan Killgore back would be a big help to the Shocks. OTOH, not getting Luke Ritter back would be a hit the Shocks can do without.

[ShockTalk]

All of the following would be not considering incoming players.

Would it be fair to say, that given your analysis of quantity and quality of players probably gone and those possibly returning, and where the teams finished last year, that Houston, ECU, UCF, and I'd put UConn, should be better off than WSU?

I would say that USF, Cincy, and Tulane (particularly since they were only 1/2 game behind WSU) should be no worse off than WSU if not a little better off.

If WSU has a number of incoming players who can be impact players, they could be on top of the 2nd group of four, but they might need to be exceptional to make inroads into the top 4. I would view this as being near the top we could achieve. Anything less, would keep us out of the top 4 and probably drop us some in the 2nd 4.

All of this not knowing the strength of the other schools incoming class, and given this is the AAC and not the Valley, one should expect several of these teams to also have strong new players.

[1972Shocker]

Yeah I think that is a fair assessment.

[1972Shocker]

While the Shockers may not have has much power on the offensive side next year with Bohm, Jenista, Troutwine and Dugas moving on I still think the key to them being successful will be how the ptiching staff develops and progresses. Of course, in baseball that is true almost every year.

While we lost some solid pitchers in Heuer, Sanburn, Tyler and possbily Killgore none were automatic wins or saves, especially in AAC play. Getting KIllgore back would be helpful although maybe not critical.

The guys we have returning for the most part have pretty much all shown glimpses that they can be solid contributors but not too many have demonstrated that they can be consistent and dependable game in and game out through a full season. Will another summer and off-season under the tutelage of Mke Steele plus natural maturing get them over the hump. Only time will tell.

Do any redshirts or incoming recruits have the ability to step in and produce? Doc seems high on Ryan Stuempfig who redshirted this past season. Hard to predict which of the incoming freshmen might be able to step in and contribute on the mound. I make WAG and say RHP Conner Peters, RHP Miller Pleimann and LHP Cal Carver might be the most likely candidates.

[txkidsports]

There have been some late signings which are game changers. 2019 season looks very bright.

[1972Shocker]

My assumptions that Keylan Killgore would sign and that Luke Ritter would return proved to be accurate.

USF's Shane McClanahan almost threw me a nasty curve as he waited until the final day (Friday, July 6th) to sign with the Rays.