At-large chances

[WSUwatcher]

I can pump sunshine with the best of them, shockfan, but after looking at the standings and other rankings on Warren Nolan's site, I'm stumped as to how you consider WSU competitive with Central Florida (and I'd be pretty nervous if I were one of UCF's fans). I just don't see it happening.

[shockfan89_]

I don't either! My logic (or lack of) is that only 5 AAC teams will get in. UCF is the only team we can really make an argument that we compare with since the others are a lock no matter how they perform this weekend (and admittedly that is even a stretch). UCF has a much better conference record, higher RPI, better record against the top 50 and top 100, much better SOS, and beat us 2 out of 3 head to head.

I guess 6 AAC teams is possible but I could only find one Regional projection yesterday that still had us in. One publication had us as first 4 out, and several didn't even mention us. My "hope" was based on UCF going 0-2 and us winning at least two games. Not sure that would be enough, but I think if we win 2 games this weekend we MIGHT get an at-large.

[WSUwatcher]

Unless the NCAA is really hard up for teams, wouldn't they just leave out both WSU and UCF is that's what their performance this weekend indicates? I look at the numbers on Warren Nolan's site, and to me UCF looks a little shaky -- and it didn't help them to start with the first round loss you were hoping for -- and WSU is beyond shaky. I have to believe the Shocks have pretty much shaken themselves out of at-large contention with their play in conference, and it amazes me to see that anyone thinks they're still at least on the baseball bubble.

[shockfan89_]

I haven't seen a Regional projection that doesn't include UCF. I assumed by that they were almost a lock. If you think UCF is on shaky ground, I might as well give up on our chances. I think UCF has a much better case for an at-large than WSU.

[ShockerFever]

I believe that Butler will be the head coach next year regardless of what happens this weekend. If we perform well this weekend and get an at-large bid to a Regional that will be the justification for another year. I just hope that we don't do a contract extension unless it has a VERY low buyout provision.

My opinion is we need to perform better this weekend than UCF does. If we significantly outperform them in the tournament I think we have a decent chance of making a Regional. If UCF stays around longer than us, I think our chances are very slim.

If Butler is the head coach next year, then Boatright will be proven to be a fraud and would further seal the athletic department's lack of caring for the baseball program.

You think we have a "decent" chance of making a regional? Sure, I'll believe we have a "decent" chance at making a regional - by winning the whole damn tournament (which would actually be a hindrance to the future of WSU baseball). Our RPI is around 50. We finished 7th (a tie away from 8th) in a 9 team league. We finished 9-14-1 in said league. We won TWO conference series all year (against #8 and #9). This all with MLB talent, multiple first-teamers in year FIVE.

You seriously think this team has a chance for an at-large berth with all of that going against it? Me thinks you're on the sunnier side of things with that analysis.

[shockfan89_]

You know I don't disagree with anything you said. I am just preparing myself for another post-season disappointment when ADDB comes out in full support of HCTB and Mike Kennedy goes on and on about how great the future is looking and how all the pieces are finally coming together (like he has since year 2). I think it is more likely we will see a contract extension than a coaching change. Just trying to look on the bright side until reality sinks in with this AD...

[shockerfanmas]

So.. what does College Sports Madness know that no other projections do? They have had WSU in the field all season, and still have us projected as the First Four In. From looking at the bracket, they have us as a #2 seed. Are they just really out of touch with reality or what?

[shockfan89_]

The glaring issue with College Sports Madness projections is they have WSU in over LSU, Illinois, and Purdue. I don't see LSU being excluded as even a remote possibility.

LSU is 34-23 (15-15) with an RPI of 40. They have a much better conference record in the #1 rated conference. They have a better record against the top 50, top 100, with an SoS of 18 and they have already won their opening tournament game against Mississippi State.

Purdue finished 2nd in the #6 rated conference with a 17-6 record (34-18 overall). We have a better record against the top 50, but theirs is better against the top 100. They have a current RPI of 39.

Illinois finished 15-9 in the #6 rated conference with an overall record of 30-18 overall. They have a better record against the top 50 and top 100 and they currently have an RPI of 48 with a non-conference SoS almost 3 times as high as ours (57 vs 149).

If we play well in our tournament and Illinois goes 0-2, I could see us getting in over Illinois, but I don't know how we can expect to get an at-large over a team like Purdue that finished 2nd in their conference with a 17-6 record when we are at 7th with a record of 9-14-1. I know the AAC is a better conference, ranked 4th vs 6th, but I just don't see it. I think we compare much more favorable with Illinois, but I would still take them over WSU at this point in time.

[WstateU]

So.. what does College Sports Madness know that no other projections do? They have had WSU in the field all season, and still have us projected as the First Four In. From looking at the bracket, they have us as a #2 seed. Are they just really out of touch with reality or what?

[WSUwatcher]

Well, IF Central Florida really was a serious at-large candidate, and IF the Shocks finish the job against UConn and play deep into the tournament, they'll probably move ahead of UCF, and very possibly into the RPI top 40.

At that point, the question becomes, does WSU supplant UCF as shockfan89 is hoping, or do they just both stay home? As before, I'm still thinking, just win, baby. Then the question is resolved.

Edit: Well, so much for taking care of business today. I suppose the Shocks can still play deep into the tournament, but their margin for error is now gone. The road to Omaha (or even the first stop on the way) just got a lot longer and tougher, and the detour was entirely self-imposed, as has been the case pretty much throughout conference play. It's hard to see this team as anything other than an underachiever so far, although there's still time to evade that label.

[ShockerFever]

Well, IF Central Florida really was a serious at-large candidate, and IF the Shocks finish the job against UConn and play deep into the tournament, they'll probably move ahead of UCF, and very possibly into the RPI top 40.

At that point, the question becomes, does WSU supplant UCF as shockfan89 is hoping, or do they just both stay home? As before, I'm still thinking, just win, baby. Then the question is resolved.

lol good call

Please put this damn thread to bed already. It's embarrassing. UNI-level embarrassing.