SMU to Pac-12?

[The Truth]

I've been hearing that they could be announced as a new Pac-12 member within the next few months along with San Diego State.

[SubGod22]

If they do get invited, they're definitely gone, even though the PAC is taking a major hit and with more to come.

I'm still shocked that the PAC presidents would agree to SMU. I get the Dallas location, but nothing else really falls in line with the conference. Not sure SDSU does either, but they do desperately need a SoCal presence.

[The Truth]

I don't get SMU either. They haven't been truly relevant since they got the death penalty and they're not even desirable to the Big 12. In my view Boise State is the biggest brand in the Mountain West Conference and I believe that the Broncos even get a larger piece of the pie than everyone else in that league. To me, SDSU and Boise would be the obvious two picks if they are going to expand back to 12.

[jcdshocker]

I heard the SMU rumor to the PAC 12 as well. If true they are gone. Memphis has to be looking elsewhere as well. Not sure where they fit.

[SubGod22]

I don't get SMU either. They haven't been truly relevant since they got the death penalty and they're not even desirable to the Big 12. In my view Boise State is the biggest brand in the Mountain West Conference and I believe that the Broncos even get a larger piece of the pie than everyone else in that league. To me, SDSU and Boise would be the obvious two picks if they are going to expand back to 12.

One thing SMU has over Boise in a major way is academics. Presidents still care about such things and the PAC still views Boise as a glorified JUCO in a small city in a small state. Their brand also isn't quite what it once was. SMU does give the PAC Dallas which I get. SMU will easily have the lowest enrollment numbers. The closest to them would be Stanford which still has a student population of +4000 on the Ponies.

Also, access to Texas goes a lot further than access to Idaho. The Washington and Oregon schools already have deep reaches into Idaho.

The good news about all of this is losing SMU isn't a major blow and we don't lose Dallas as we will have North Texas. The MWC losing SDSU might make it possible for the AAC to go back and try to grab a couple of schools. SDSU was one of, if not the one, that held up a larger pull from the MWC when last attempted. I'd expect the AAC to go after at least 3 and move to a 16 team league, or they could go after 5 and jump to 18. We know AFA and CSU are the first two that would be targeted. After that there are a number of options. Based on how the AAC views itself, mostly urban research universities, one would think UNLV would be a high end target. Utah State would make sense. The AAC might like Boise, but part of me thinks it would be fun to let them flounder in a much weakened conference and see if the XII ever takes a chance on them. If we're taking western schools, odds are they'd like at least one California school so Fresno would probably get the nod. I believe they're generally more successful than San Jose State.

Or, the AAC could take both SJS and FSU to guarantee California games for the western adds every year. But if we were adding five that would make the fifth be between UNLV and Utah State I would think. UNLV is the sexier city, but Utah State has had the better athletics and probably better on the academic side, but I admit I haven't looked into UNLV closely. I just like the idea of easy roadies to Vegas. Or you blow it all up and go to 20 with SJS, FSU, AFA, CSU, UNLV, USU and one of Boise, Wyoming and New Mexico. Or you forget those last three and add one eastern team in Toledo, Buffalo, Georgia State.

Though the PAC could be scrambling in a couple of years as well with both the B1G and the XII looking west. It's possible we see Oregon and one other to the B1G in the near future. The Arizona schools along with Utah and Colorado could end up in the XII. A lot of major shifts coming in the next few years as I think both conferences will poach from the PAC.

[SubGod22]

I heard the SMU rumor to the PAC 12 as well. If true they are gone. Memphis has to be looking elsewhere as well. Not sure where they fit.

Memphis has nowhere to go. The XII will add again but they'll be looking west at the PAC schools. Memphis isn't getting in the ACC or SEC. The AAC is the best they can do right now and it's not a bad place to be. Especially if we can pick up some MWC schools if SDSU does in fact join the PAC.

[ShockTalk]

I can see where SMU would go to the Pac for the money. What I really don't get is the "Dallas viewership" angle for the Pac. Just how much "viewership" does SMU have now? Would it really get better viewership if they were in the Pac than what it is now? Just what does Texans care about the west coast? And then there is the Cali exodus of people to places like Texas. Are they more likely going to watch the Pac if SMU is in it? They can watch their Pac teams now if they want to.

[SubGod22]

I can see where SMU would go to the Pac for the money. What I really don't get is the "Dallas viewership" angle for the Pac. Just how much "viewership" does SMU have now? Would it really get better viewership if they were in the Pac than what it is now? Just what does Texans care about the west coast? And then there is the Cali exodus of people to places like Texas. Are they more likely going to watch the Pac if SMU is in it? They can watch their Pac teams now if they want to.

It's not necessarily viewership as much as it is potential reach. That's why the B1G added Rutgers when they did. Rutgers brought nothing to the table from an athletics viewpoint and NYC didn't really care about Rutgers, but it put them in the NYC market. SMU gives them direct access to Texas and the Dallas metro. It's also why they want to add SDSU. The PAC doesn't really want SDSU. I don't know what kind of following SDSU really has, but it would keep the PAC in SoCal and that's important to them.

It's also why the AAC considered teams like FAU (Miami) and UTSA (San Antonio). It's why the AAC didn't really consider schools like Marshall or App State. It's also why if the AAC does add another eastern school at some point that Georgia State (Atlanta) will get strong consideration.

[The Truth]

I really don't think the AAC or MWC will be able to poach each other. Once CSU and AFA turned down the AAC, the AAC decided to turn into the "southern metro cities conference" plus Temple and us. I agree that GA State is probably where the American looks first if we decide to get back to 14, assuming SMU leaves.

[SubGod22]

I really don't think the AAC or MWC will be able to poach each other. Once CSU and AFA turned down the AAC, the AAC decided to turn into the "southern metro cities conference" plus Temple and us. I agree that GA State is probably where the American looks first if we decide to get back to 14, assuming SMU leaves.

I really believe SDSU wasn't willing to move and that made CSU and ASA hesitant. With SDSU gone I think there's a chance to go back west. The MWC can't poach AAC schools because their media deal is worse and the exit fee from the AAC just wouldn't make sense. AFA and CSU were close to coming. And if you can convince a few others to come with them, I think it could definitely be possible. I also think if we were able to add a couple of specific schools that ESPN might bump the pay up even. They'd get more content in more time zones and that plays with networks. No guarantees, but Aresco would be working the phones to make it happen.

[The Truth]

I really believe SDSU wasn't willing to move and that made CSU and ASA hesitant. With SDSU gone I think there's a chance to go back west. The MWC can't poach AAC schools because their media deal is worse and the exit fee from the AAC just wouldn't make sense. AFA and CSU were close to coming. And if you can convince a few others to come with them, I think it could definitely be possible. I also think if we were able to add a couple of specific schools that ESPN might bump the pay up even. They'd get more content in more time zones and that plays with networks. No guarantees, but Aresco would be working the phones to make it happen.

An AAC media deal with 16 teams would be worth around $5-6M per school annually. The current MWC deal nets each school $4M per year. The MWC has a buyout of $16.5M if a 1+ year notice is given, so it would at minimum take about a decade for any MWC school to make their money back if they left. I just think the chances of it happening are very small.

Most schools in the AAC and MWC are looking to move up to a Power Conference, not laterally. Paying a $16M (MW) or $18M (AAC) exit fee once is fine, but planning on doing it twice wouldn't be the wisest decision.

[SubGod22]

https://www.si.com/fannation/college/cfb-hq/.amp/ncaa-football/college-football-expansion-big-12-wants-pac-12-schools-report

SI is officially talking about reports of the XII targeting the Arizona schools along with Utah and Colorado.

I wouldn't be surprised to see this happen within the next few months. At which point, the B1G may go ahead and move on Oregon and one other (Washington).

[SubGod22]

Cardinal Sports Report - Joint Statement from Pac-12 about media rights; best expansion candidates?

“The 10 Pac-12 universities look forward to consummating successful media rights deal(s) in the very near future. Based upon positive conversations with multiple potential media rights partners over the past weeks, we remain highly confident in our future growth and success as a conference and united in our commitment to one another.”

It will be interesting to see if there will be a media rights deal announced before the announcement of new members of the conference or if this new deal will be contingent on the league expanding to 12 teams or more. San Diego State and SMU have been the two schools considered the front runners for expansion for obvious reasons. San Diego State would help the Pac-12 regain a footprint in Southern California while also getting access to a very underrated media market. SMU would expand the Pac-12 footprint into the state of Texas and get them exposure in a very solid Dallas media market as well.

On top of them residing in good media markets, San Diego State and SMU are also very solid academic schools with solid athletic programs. Both schools have been really solid in men’s basketball and football over the years, which are the two sports that matter the most. When you consider all that, it’s no surprise those are the two schools talked about the most when it comes to Pac-12 expansion.

I've seen some reports about the Pac having talks with Apple to be their go to media option. Personally, I think that would be a bad idea from an exposure standpoint for a conference already beginning to suffer. Apple has the money, but it will be out of sight, out of mind for many. I don't think most non Pac fans are going to bother subscribing to a Pac channel.

The article also talks about the Pac going to both 14 and 16. Options for such included Fresno State as option 13 with either New Mexico or Rice or even Tulane being option 14. Essentially travel partners for SMU and SDSU. They then went on to also mention Utah State and Colorado State as options to get to 16.


I also saw a few headlines about the XII talking to Fresno State, but I couldn't access the articles without a subscription. That one had me curious.

I still think the Pac needs to do something soon, because I don't think it'll be too long before the B1G and XII move on their western options. I think Oregon and Washington join the B1G by 2025 and the same with the XII and Arizona, Arizona State, Utah and Colorado. Announcements if not moves.

Which, if you're a school looking to join the Pac right now, you have to be aware of that happening and be completely aware of what any media deal looks like upon your addition and what happens to it if any or all of those six schools leave.

[SubGod22]

Reputable sources are talking about talks.

What will the PAC do if the four corners bolt? What will Oregon and Washington do?

Will the PAC end up taking the big MWC schools and do what they can with that?

How much will their value fall?

[pogo]

There was an article that I read from a former football coach and AD at Oregon that pretty much predicted that the PAC 12 would not be a power conference after the big and the big12 finished realignment. So If SMU wants to bolt I say go ahead.