Nevada Update

[WuDrWu]

The state's largest newspaper, the Las Vegas Review Journal, officially endorses Sharron Angle.

The paper has endorsed Sen. Reid previously, but as noted in this editorial, now sees Harry as a left wing nut tied to special interests and not Nevadans.

http://www.lvrj.com/opinion/election-offers-clear-choice-104232129.html

Washington state now appears up for grabs as well.

One site I looked at yesterday had their mathmatical model at a 95% for a GOP House gain of 17-85 seats.

Most models put a GOP takeover of the House now at greater than a 60% chance.

Hand to hand combat indeed, Mr. President.

[SB Shock]

Projections I have seen is:

House 227 Republican, 208 Democrat
Senate 52 Democrat, 48 Republican

[Maggie]

52 Senate seats is pretty optimistic (I wouldn’t put money on it) but not out of the question.

The Republican challenger leads in the latest polling in every one of the following races: North Dakota, Indiana, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, Colorado, West Virginia, Nevada, Illinois (Alexi Giannoulias is a real tool – I think he said on Sunday that the stimulus package kept people from standing in soup lines – good grief :roll: ), Wisconsin, and Washington.

This state of affairs can change, certainly. There are races within the margin of error or with conflicting polling data. But that runs both ways. Connecticut may tighten up – I was very, very skeptical when Linda McMahon began her bid for Senate, but although she still trails, she has run a fantastically disciplined and focused campaign. She has also held her own and more during the debates – she asked her opponent Dick Blumenthal how are jobs created, his meandering nonsensical answer was classic. Carly Fiorinia in California has also been hanging tough – boy do I want her to win.

So there are a minimum of 12 potential pick-ups with varying degrees of difficulty for the GOP. It would be foolish to say a Senate pick-up is “likely,” but it’s simply wrong to say it’s a long shot.

I think the likely scenario is that the GOP falls just short of a majority in the Senate. And that is okay – as I mentioned before what is most important, for the GOP, is having a solid cushion over 41.

Who would have thought this was even possible two years ago?

[Maggie]

As for the House ending up 227(R)/208(D) which I think would be a pick up of about 49 seats, from what I have read I don’t think that is an unreasonable prediction. The GOP needs 40 seats for a majority and I think it is more likely than not they will get to 40. Anything over that is gravy.

But be prepared, if the GOP doesn’t take the Senate (which will probably be the case) and flips “only” 40 to 50 seats in the House, the MSM will declare it a “victory” for Democrats and President Obama.

[ABC]

The best source for political news and the most updated polls is Real Clear Politics.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

They average all of the polls.

They do a great job of linking to articles on both sides and the middle; and there is a "Real Clear Sports" too.

With no toss-ups, Real Clear Politcs has the Senate at 50-50.

The don't list the House races w/o toss ups, probably b/c there are too many.

However, as of today, they have the House at 210 GOP, 186 Democratic with 39 toss ups. 37 of the toss up seats are Democrat seats.

Almost all of the House races with recent changes have changed to being more favorable for the GOP.

That doesn't bod very well for the Ds.

[Maggie]

They have Gillibrand in New York as a likely Dem. That race might end up being closer than most people think. Gillibrand has a creditable opponent in Joseph DioGuardi. Gillibrand’s approval ratings have been low throughout her tenure, meaning she’s vulnerable. If word spreads about DioGuardi, he’ll have a shot.

[wu_shizzle]

Never discount the "ground-game" of Harry Reid, but it looks like he's done.

New polling today has Sharon Angle with her largest lead of the campaign.

Even the NYT is reporting this.

[SubGod22]

It'll be interesting as there have already been complaints about voting machine screw ups in favor of Reid. It's said to be isolated and I haven't followed up on it.

Angle may have issues, I don't know, but Reid is horrid.

[AMaizNShocks]

It'll be interesting as there have already been complaints about voting machine screw ups in favor of Reid. It's said to be isolated and I haven't followed up on it.

I thought I heard there were concerns about the unions who operate the machines tampering with them in some way.

[WuDrWu]

Sharon Angle has done a very good job for a newbie. As a conservative, I cringed in near horror the first time she spoke.

Since then, she has polished her delivery and anyone with even a marginally open mind would tell you she easily won the debate with Reid (and I thought she crucified him).

The state's biggest paper endorsed her, even after endorsing Reid in every election before this one. This cycle seems to be saying "I am not sure if I like this person, but I am willing to give them a chance because I KNOW the incumbent is a problem".

In perhaps the best retort of this election, here is the exchange between left wing loon, mentally handicapped and completely talentless Joy Behar (how the hell does this person get work beyond custodial?) and soon to be Senator Angle.

(From the "Left View" on Tuesday)

Angle is "a moron on top of being evil," Behar said. "I'd like to see her do this ad in the South Bronx. Come here, *****, come to New York and do it." To the protests of co-hosts Sherri Shepherd and Elisabeth Hasselbeck, she predicted, "She is going to hell, this *****."


To which Angle replied by sending flowers to Joy with the following note attached:

Joy, raised $150,000 online yesterday. Thanks for your help, Sharon.


Brilliant.

http://politics.blogs.foxnews.com/2010/10/28/sharron-angle-sends-views-joy-behar-flowers-after-salty-diatribe#ixzz13fn842YO

[RoyalShock]

It'll be interesting as there have already been complaints about voting machine screw ups in favor of Reid. It's said to be isolated and I haven't followed up on it.

I thought I heard there were concerns about the unions who operate the machines tampering with them in some way.

The concerns don't have any real basis other than guilt by association. The technicians contracted to repair the machines are SEIU members. And of course, the SEIU backs Reid. As far as I know, there haven't been any allegations against the techs yet.