S. Korea vs N. Korea [Cold war goes Hot]

[SB Shock]

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/37329506/ns/world_news-asiapacific/

S. Korea cuts all ties and will not allow passage of N. Korea shipping in their waters. N. Korea denies they did anything and if they keep getting blamed they will go to war.

"Timed to coincide with the evermore undisguised moves to resume the psychological warfare against the DPRK in the areas along the MDL, there appeared a slogan for the said warfare at MP [military police] post 330 of the puppet Third Infantry Division in the Demilitarized Zone in the central sector of the front and it is set to install even louder speaker for resuming the broadcasting as part of the said warfare.

This is an open breach of the inter-Korean military agreement, a grave military provocation to the DPRK and a serious incident driving the inter-Korean relations to the worst phase.

The KPA soldiers are now greatly enraged by this provocation of the group of traitors and asking for the issue of an order to blow up such means for the psychological warfare as the new slogan and louder speaker with their sighting shots.

Requested by the soldiers and upon the authorization of the superior, I serve the South Korean group of traitors the following warning: 1. The slogan for psychological warfare against the DPRK carved on a wall of the building of MP post 330 should be immediately removed and those involved in the crime sternly punished.

Nighwatches assessment of this diatribe:

Warnings attributed to field commanders are almost unprecedented. The specificity in the statement indicates this is not a bluff. Expect shooting incidents across the DMZ, as well as naval clashes. Activation of civil defense measures would indicate the North is preparing to escalate to all out war as it threatened last week. This is a warning item.

North Korea actions remind me of Arkansas Brian Walker in the Ole Miss game. When you start believing your bluff, the following happens:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=26axJdDKYWw

[SB Shock]

STRATFOR is reporting that NK has sortied 4 submarines.

NK has told SK in the joint factory complex to leave.

[SB Shock]

NK declared it would sever all communication with SK if they continue to blame them for sinking SK ship.

NK Committee for Peaceful reunification of Korea announced a total freeze in inter-Korean relations.

NK claims SK warships are trespassing in territorial waters and this could lead to conflict.

SK resumed propaganda broadcast across the DMZ.

Reuters is reporting that NK forces have been ordered to increase alert status. This has not been confirmed yet by SK officials. If this is true, SK and US forces will mirror the alert status.

[SB Shock]

1st incident at sea occurred yesterday. SK Destroyer intercepted and turned away a NK cargo ship. The question will be whether NK responds in any way?

NK Defector is claiming that NK Military has been ordered to stand ready for combat. SK government is still trying to verify.

Free NK radio is reporting the a "return to barracks" has been sent out to the military. This is another measure to increase readiness.

Russia is sending experts to SK to study the results of the investigations of the sinking of Cheonan.

[SB Shock]

South Korean media (via Fox) is reporting US-Korean readiness has moved from 3 to 2 (1 being highest). This mean more spy satellite and U-2 spy plane coverage.

"I don't think they're really interested in going to war," said Daniel Pinkston, a Seoul-based analyst for the International Crisis Group think tank. "Because if it's all-out war, then I'm convinced it would mean the absolute destruction" of North Korea. "And their country would cease to exist."

But then again most experts did not believe NK would invade during the summer when the rice paddies were not frozen over. Question is will NK blink?

[SB Shock]

Reports are that there have not been any changes in border crossings /service (Russia, China) and they are still sending diplomats abroad. This is a sign of normality.

Meanwhile the military has announced that they will "complete nullify" various accords and will attack any SK ships that enter their waters.

The contradictory message may be a sign of NK leadership in disarray.

[SB Shock]

China prime minister sends a message to NK by saying that they "will not protect" whoever sank the SK warship. But they stopped short of blaming NK.

China offered their condolence to SK for their loss of life in a China-SK summit.

NK has demanded to the the evidence be presented to them. Nightwatch commentary suggest this all indicates the NK is slowing or stopping the military escalation for a few days.

[SB Shock]

U.S. Joints Chief of Staff Adm. Mike Mullen said today that the U.S. is worred the NK may launch another attack. Mullen also said the lack of clarity about succession plans in North Korea has added to the uncertainty surrounding the situation.

[SB Shock]

NK has seemed to back away from this crisis at this moment waiting to see what SK and the US might do.

SK is pushing ahead with UN security council condemnation. SK also said that the U.S. has postponed their joint naval exercise that was suppose to start next year. NK will interpret this likely that the US doesn't want to provoke NK and will be used as a another triumph against the imperialist. Nightwatch assessment:

As the confrontation now stands, the North surreptitiously, in cold blood and with malice sank an Allied patrol ship with impunity. two months ago. Every US ally in Asia will understand this state of affairs as signifying a weakening of the US commitment to the defense of its allies, every day that it persists.

[SB Shock]

Just as things seemed to be calming down a little

North Korea threatened Sunday to retaliate against South Korea for taking it to the U.N. Security Council over the deadly sinking of a warship, calling the action an "intolerable provocation."

[SB Shock]

NK said that their military will respond to any measures taken by the UNSC.

SK said that NK has raised their military readiness though there have been no fresh provocations.

NK has also said they will destroy the SK loud speakers.

Nightwatch analysis says that they believe

In sum, the leadership in Pyongyang apparently does not know who sank the Cheonan and the military does not want to be punished before it gets a chance to examine the evidence.

A military faction clearly wants to shoot guns at South Korea, for reasons that are hardly plausible, but deadly nevertheless.The motivation for this has less to do with UN action than with a sense - conveyed in multiple discordant public statements - that the South and the US do not fear the North's military capabilities. They seem to think they have something to prove and so will stage a military demonstration.

At least one leadership faction strongly wants to avoid further escalation, despite the military bluster. That group has offered the US an exit strategy that apparently requires reassurances of US good intentions that were given ten years ago!

[SB Shock]

the Obamination continues

The lesson of the 1996 Taiwan Strait Crisis is that a great power must act like a great power or it is not a great power. The US sent two carriers to deter China from intimidating Taiwan at that time. The US acted like a great power regardless of China's pique and military ineptitude.

A failure to hold show of force exercises off North Korea for any reason means the US is sending the message that it is no longer the great power of Northeast Asia and the protector of its allies. The North Koreans will have completed a clean sweep, sinking an allied ship, intimidating the UN, gaining Chinese support and forcing the US to back down in support of its ally.

[SB Shock]

North Korea attacks South Korea this morning with Artillery fire. NK has fired over 200 artillery rounds on to a SK island injuring 10 SK soldiers. SK has responded by firing counter-battery fire of 80 shells and scrambling F16 fighters and placing its military at its highest alert level.

[SB Shock]

SK has decided to escalate if NK continues provocation with a multi-fold" retaliation.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/news/2010/11/23/0200000000AEN20101123013200315.HTML

SEOUL, Nov. 23 (Yonhap) -- President Lee Myung-bak ordered his military Tuesday to strike North Korea's missile base around its coastline artillery positions if it shows signs of additional provocation, his spokeswoman said.

[SubGod22]

It was only a matter of time. This is going to get worse, I have no doubt.