New Gallup Poll Shows Dominant Political Group

[ISASO]

Polling now shows that Independents are migrating to the right in statistically-significant numbers. Period Dot (as the Greek scholar at my church is fond of saying).

It is clear that America is revolting against the Marxists.

[ISASO]

How are those state gubernatorial races looking today?

[WuDrWu]

Last I saw WSJ/NBC poll had Corrzine (D) ahead of challenger Christie (R) by about 5 points. Rassmussen still has Christie ahead. There is a 3rd party (I) candidate that is certainly stealing votes from Christie.

In Virginia, it's all over but the shouting. Republican Bob McDonnell is crushing Democrat Creigh Deeds 54% to 41% with only 4% undecided.

Republicans will again take control of South DC and restore order to that part of the country.

Real Clear Politics (right leaning) has conservative (and Palin backed) Hoffman up by 5. DailyKos (left jumping) had Democrat Owens ahead by double digits 10 days ago...but this is a conservative district and the Republican candidate is a nutjob and still stealing votes from Hoffman. If she were to drop out (she has absolutely ZERO chance of winning at this point), this race would be a rout.

[SubGod22]

I hadn't seen any new numbers on Hoffman. Hopefully RCP is correct and a message will be sent.

[Maggie]

To add to WuDrWu’s comment:

Yes, it looks as if, barring some sort of late revelation, the Virginia race is over. The only question right now is whether Deeds will simply lose or get taken to the woodshed.

New Jersey is a toss-up right now. If the polls still show a dead heat by Election Day, Christie stands a very good chance of winning. Undecided voters know what they have gotten with Corzine: the worst state and local tax burden in the naiton, higher tolls, residents fleeing, higher unemployment, a deep-rooted culture of corruption. If Corzine hasn't closed the deal by now, it's not clear what he could do in the next four days to change people's minds. Bringing in all these high-profile national Democratic figures, including the President, I don’t think helps Corzine much – New Jersey politics are notoriously local and the percentage of voters that view Corzine unfavorably has remained very high. It sort of screams, "I know you don't like me, but you might like my friends." :noidea:

Daggett (3rd party) is the wild-card and he has been hurting Christie. A lot of conservatives from New Jersey I have talked to mention they preferred, as I did, Steve Lonegan in the primary. Some have indicated they’ll stay home, dissatisfied with their choices and determined to “send a message” to Christie that he should have emphasized their preferred issues more. To which I say – feh.

My policy has always been that I will support the most conservative candidate electable. Protest votes on ideal candidates are ultimately ill-advised and self-indulgent. Lonegan is not on the ballet and Daggett (who I have not paid close attention to) cannot win so hopefully they will throw their support Christie’s way. Also, Daggett is likely to lose some support as we get closer to the election – precisely because he can’t win and it is likely the majority of that support will end up with Christie.

The choice in NY-23 is, in my judgment, for conservatives something of a no-brainer. I often vote Republican by default because the GOP is the more conservative of the two major parties. If a sensible conservative can beat a liberal Republican, then I see no reason to support the Republican out of some team mentality.

What is happening in NY-23 is a product of how bad Scozzafava is coupled with the fact that New York has a long-standing conservative third party. The contest in NY-23 is what the New York Conservative party was made for. The state's cross-endorsement policy means that the Conservatives (and its left-of-center mirror images) generally function as pressure groups, supporting major party candidates they like or undermining those they don't. But sometimes the major party picks a candidate so egregious that the minor party must and can go all out. And there you have NY-23. And, as a plus, Hoffman is electable.

[ShockCity]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/123161/republican-party-image-improves-trails-democrats.aspx

[Maggie]

NY-23, even according to the Daily Kos, is dead even between Owens (D) 33% and Hoffman (C) 32%. Scozzafava (R) has slipped to 21%. Hoffman, unsurprisingly, still has to close the gap with some voters - 39% say they have no opinion of him.

Interesting race.

Daily Kos/Research 2000 NY-23 Poll

[WuDrWu]

Probably not a dead heat any longer. Dede drops out....

[SubGod22]

Probably not a dead heat any longer. Dede drops out....

That's great news for the 23rd!

[wu_shizzle]

Probably not a dead heat any longer. Dede drops out....

I wonder if Newt will back the Conservative.

It might be good for him to just disappear...

[WuDrWu]

Yeah, that endorsement didn't make sense to me. I thought Newt was rehabilitating himself in a conservative mode, but getting behind Dede was a head scratcher to me.

I am certain liberals everywhere are spitting blood knowing the Palin machine is behind this win.

[Maggie]

Probably not a dead heat any longer. Dede drops out....

Good for her. As for the election - it is over. Oh and Newt quickly endorsed Hoffman.

[SB Shock]

Scozzafava (R-IWC) endorsed Owens (D). Will be interesting to see how her supporters distribute in the next poll.

Latest poll had is 36% Owen, 35% Hoffman and 20% Scozzafava

Predictions I have read expect the next poll to see something like:

44% Owens, 41% Hoffman, Scozzafava 5%.

[SubGod22]

I'm not really surprised to see her endorse Owens. They were basically the same candidate.

[wsushox1]

No one knows what "conservative" is anymore.