The millennial success sequence

[SB Shock]

http://www.aei.org/publication/millennials-and-the-success-sequence-how-do-education-work-and-marriage-affect-poverty-and-financial-success-among-millennials/

They found that formula for success was rather simple

1. Get you H.S. diploma (at minimum)
2. Get Married
3. Have Kids

• Millennials are much more likely to flourish financially if they follow the “success sequence”—getting at least a high school degree, working full-time, and marrying before having any children, in that order.

• While 55 percent of 28- to 34-year-old millennial parents had their first child before marriage, the vast majority of millennials who married before having any children are now steering clear of poverty and appear to be headed toward realizing the American dream. Additionally, 95 percent of millennials who married first are not poor, compared to 72 percent who had children first.

• Even millennials from low-income families are more likely to flourish if they married before having children: 71 percent who married before having children made it into the middle or higher end of the income distribution by the time they are age 28–34. By comparison, only 41 percent of millennials from lower-income families who had children first made it into the middle or higher end of the distribution when they reached ages 28–34.

[SB Shock]

If you grew in low income family, if you followed the sequence you were less likely to end up in poverty

On Track for all three - 9% in poverty
Missing one or two - 31% in poverty
Missing all three - 58% in poverty

[Aargh]

There are a lot of ways that information can be applied to dollars and cents and government spending that would be incredibly unpopular.

[ShockTalk]

I'll put this here, even though it would apply to a discussion in a different thread:

"This pattern holds true for racial and ethnic minorities, as well as young adults from lower-income families. For instance, 76% of African American and 81% of Hispanic young adults who married first are in the middle or upper third of the income distribution, as are 87% of whites. Likewise, 71% of Millennials who grew up in the bottom third of the income distribution and married before having a baby have moved up to the middle or upper third of the distribution as young adults. In general, Millennials who marry first are more likely to be on track to realizing the American Dream than those who put childbearing first."

"Today, 31% of Millennials who obtained at least a high school degree (but didn’t follow the work and marriage steps) by their mid-20s are in poverty when they reach ages 28 to 34.3 Young adults who earned not only a high school diploma but also managed to have a full-time job (including those who were in college or married and home with children) in their mid-twenties are even less likely to be poor. Just 8% of Millennials who are “on track”—that is, had taken the first two steps of the success sequence but had neither married or had children—are poor. Finally, only 3% of young adults who passed through all three milestones associated with the success sequence in its entirety—including marrying first—are poor. In contrast, 53% of young adults who did not follow this sequence at all are in poverty. Among black and Latino Millennials, as well as Millennials who grew up in low-income families, those who followed the success sequence are markedly less likely to be poor than their peers who did not. The association between following the success sequence and avoiding poverty remains robust after controlling for various factors such as education, childhood family income, race/ ethnicity, sex, and the AFQT."