Immigration

[Play Angry]

I'm probably coming off more hostile to the proposal than intended here - I actually really like the idea of a plan that prioritizes applicants' priority on merit, but am concerned with overreaching in that direction and cutting off our population inflows at such a dramatic clip. Illegal inflows have tapered off considerably (over the last half dozen years but more sharply since January) and I am unsure how much of that is factored in to this proposal - if we are seeing dramatically fewer illegals coming in, then from a consumption base standpoint we should be looking to increase legal inflows, not cut them. As proposed, we looking at very sharp reductions in both areas which could have sizeable unintended consequences.

[wufan]

Pragmatically, I don't have any issues with immigrants provided the following:

They assimilate to the core values of America
They commit no crimes

My experience with legal immigrants (and I've had a lot of it) is that they are genuinely good people. I've had less experience with foreign born people where I do not know the status of their immigration. Those have been positive as well.

[ShoxHailGGG]

If we had tougher immigration policies we wouldn’t have the current water tower issue that we’re facing right now.

Now what do you mean by this????????

[ShoxMTXE]

Now what do you mean by this????????

Look, no disrespect to your beliefs, but my opinion comes from my time working 30+ years in the oil business. In the beginning of my career, I was responsible for traveling town-to-town by vehicle negotiating regional contracts; so its fare to say I’ve got to see a LARGE slice of America.


Maggie and I agree on this nearly every day. It just seems like every year, more and more of them keep coming into our neighborhood. I have the records to show you that in the Oklahoma area alone, property values are dropping slightly because of their arrival.

It’s sickening.

No doubt, when I’m driving through my neighborhood, it’s an eye-sore. The last thing we both want to see is another damn water tower pop-up. We have enough of them already and I was sad to read about the one in Wichita that made national news.

I’ve appreciated everyone’s opinions on the Irrigation issue. It’s something I think we all need to discuss more. MAGA

[CBB_Fan]

From what I understand, this is somewhat similar to the transgender thing. Trump didn't enact a bill, he didn't sign an executive order, so nothing in our immigration policy has actually changed yet. Trump refers to a yet-to-pass bill called the New RAISE Act, introduced by Senators Cotton and Perdue. Here's the problem: it needs 60 votes for cloture. As it cannot be passed through reconciliation, the simple majority the Republicans have is not to push the bill through Congress. Even if every possible Democrat defected (Manchin, McCaskill, Heitkamp, Donnelly, Tester), the Republicans wouldn't be able to push a conservative immigration bill through. Trump could easily score points if he knew he could executive order away Obama's DREAM Act substitute, DACA, but I'm honestly not sure he even knows what that is. From the way he talks, it seems he still thinks he can just say something and it will already be done.

For the reference, I do not have a problem with our legal immigration system. Knowing the actual process, it already is virtually impossible to get a visa (let alone residency) as an unskilled worker. I believe 5,000 such visas are available per year. Chain migration can get around this (with 6-20 year wait times), but the alternative is worse. Without it, you admit a large number of skilled workers, which are largely men under 40. They will enter the USA without a safety network, which is basically the ideal conditions for domestic terrorism. Young, single, isolated men with persecution complexes. Not all of them, to be sure, but enough that just by playing the odds you will get terrorists and mass shooters.

I think it is also worth noting that the foreign-born share of the USA's population increased by 0.1% from 1910 to 2015, from 14.6% to 14.7%, which I think largely debunks the idea that we are losing our culture or country to the world's swarming horde.

Illegal immigration is a separate issue, one that I believe we can solve with proper policy (better border technology, more agents, crackdown on overstayed visas).

[wufan]

From what I understand, this is somewhat similar to the transgender thing. Trump didn't enact a bill, he didn't sign an executive order, so nothing in our immigration policy has actually changed yet. Trump refers to a yet-to-pass bill called the New RAISE Act, introduced by Senators Cotton and Perdue. Here's the problem: it needs 60 votes for cloture. As it cannot be passed through reconciliation, the simple majority the Republicans have is not to push the bill through Congress. Even if every possible Democrat defected (Manchin, McCaskill, Heitkamp, Donnelly, Tester), the Republicans wouldn't be able to push a conservative immigration bill through. Trump could easily score points if he knew he could executive order away Obama's DREAM Act substitute, DACA, but I'm honestly not sure he even knows what that is. From the way he talks, it seems he still thinks he can just say something and it will already be done.

For the reference, I do not have a problem with our legal immigration system. Knowing the actual process, it already is virtually impossible to get a visa (let alone residency) as an unskilled worker. I believe 5,000 such visas are available per year. Chain migration can get around this (with 6-20 year wait times), but the alternative is worse. Without it, you admit a large number of skilled workers. These are largely men under 40, which will enter the USA without a safety network. That is basically the ideal conditions for domestic terrorism. Young, single, isolated men with persecution complexes. Not all of them, to be sure, but enough that just by playing the odds you will get terrorists and mass shooters. I think it is also worth noting that the foreign-born share of the USA's population increased by 0.1% from 1910 to 2015, from 14.6% to 14.7%, which I think largely debunks the idea that we are losing our culture or country to the world's swarming horde.

Illegal immigration is a separate issue, one that I believe we can solve with proper policy (better border technology, more agents, crackdown on overstayed visas).

I guess it makes sense that those without a safety network (family) could go astray as terrorists, but is that what we are actually seeing? Are the resident terrorists loners?

Also, "largely debunks the idea that we are losing our culture or country to the world's swarming horde.", is quite poetic, but I've not heard that complaint before. Largely, the complaints I've heard (ignorant or intellectual) are: take our jobs, take our social services, commit crimes, don't pay taxes, don't speak English.

Finally, the unskilled green card number is 10000. Hundreds of thousands more enter the US as guest workers or as sponsored family members. Not saying good or bad, just that it's more than 5000.

[Aargh]

I think there will be resistance from businesses who use immigrants for minimum wage jobs (that group probably includes Trump - think housekeeping at hotels). Those workers are often family members who have no job skills. I would hope housekeeping wouldn't become a merit job.

I don't think this proposal will go anywhere or amount to much of a change. It's a great soud bite to make it look like there's being an effort to save American jobs for Americans.

Maybe I'm overly cynical, but I think the PR effect of "save American jobs for Americans" is the purpose here rather than actually implementing any real changes that might cut off the flow of low-paid immigrant workers.

[wufan]

I think there will be resistance from businesses who use immigrants for minimum wage jobs (that group probably includes Trump - think housekeeping at hotels). Those workers are often family members who have no job skills. I would hope housekeeping wouldn't become a merit job.

I don't think this proposal will go anywhere or amount to much of a change. It's a great soud bite to make it look like there's being an effort to save American jobs for Americans.

Maybe I'm overly cynical, but I think the PR effect of "save American jobs for Americans" is the purpose here rather than actually implementing any real changes that might cut off the flow of low-paid immigrant workers.

Trumps bill doesn't address non-skilled labor that can work in the US. Totally different immigration policy.

[Play Angry]

Trumps bill doesn't address non-skilled labor that can work in the US. Totally different immigration policy.

This plan does contemplate a significant impact on low-end wages though as a stated goal of the proposal is to drive a spike in wages for unskilled domestic labor.

Prices would rise, substantially for some goods and services, as those costs would be passed through.

[wufan]

This plan does contemplate a significant impact on low-end wages though as a stated goal of the proposal is to drive a spike in wages for unskilled domestic labor.

Prices would rise, substantially for some goods and services, as those costs would be passed through.

I've only seen the press conference, and I'm kind of an idiot on this, so lease do correct me:

If the bill passes as is, then the green card recipients would allegedly be professionals in the six figure range rather than a mix of people across the board. Supposedly there are some factory workers and such that get these cards currently, and they are unlikely to qualify. Americans get more factory jobs at a higher rate. This is a relatively small number (about 500000). Would that really drive inflation up?

[Play Angry]

I've only seen the press conference, and I'm kind of an idiot on this, so lease do correct me:

If the bill passes as is, then the green card recipients would allegedly be professionals in the six figure range rather than a mix of people across the board. Supposedly there are some factory workers and such that get these cards currently, and they are unlikely to qualify. Americans get more factory jobs at a higher rate. This is a relatively small number (about 500000). Would that really drive inflation up?

It seems one of the overarching goals of his immigration policy during the campaign and during his time in office, cutting across both legal and illegal immigration, has always been to create a vacuum of available labor at the lowest ends of the economic spectrum in order to spur companies to hire citizens at increased wages - he's stated that more jobs and higher pay for U.S. citizens in these positions is a goal of these proposals and executive orders, and that's the only way to get from A to B. This includes nothing for the increased benefits expenses appurtenant to hiring citizens (unionized at much higher rates for low level jobs) versus non-citizens. I think the assessment of 500,000 factory jobs is far too narrow when viewed in context of a 50% cut in legal migrant inflows + a dramatic drop-off in illegal inflows + escalated rates of deportation. We are talking figures somewhere in the millions and tens of millions spanning a decade for low-skilled manufacturing, construction and services positions IMO.

Ironically and unrelatedly, I imagine this may incentivize companies to accelerate the use of robots and automation to eliminate many of these positions entirely rather than pay a higher multiple to employ citizens a much higher wage package.

[wufan]

It seems one of the overarching goals of his immigration policy during the campaign and during his time in office, cutting across both legal and illegal immigration, has always been to create a vacuum of available labor at the lowest ends of the economic spectrum in order to spur companies to hire citizens at increased wages - he's stated that more jobs and higher pay for U.S. citizens in these positions is a goal of these proposals and executive orders, and that's the only way to get from A to B. This includes nothing for the increased benefits expenses appurtenant to hiring citizens (unionized at much higher rates for low level jobs) versus non-citizens. I think the assessment of 500,000 factory jobs is far too narrow when viewed in context of a 50% cut in legal migrant inflows + a dramatic drop-off in illegal inflows + escalated rates of deportation. We are talking figures somewhere in the millions and tens of millions spanning a decade for low-skilled manufacturing, construction and services positions IMO.

Ironically and unrelatedly, I imagine this may incentivize companies to accelerate the use of robots and automation to eliminate many of these positions entirely rather than pay a higher multiple to employ citizens a much higher wage package.

I too was wondering a lot about tech killing jobs. As robots become cheaper, minimum wage is going to have to decrease to stay competitive.

[jdshock]

Look, no disrespect to your beliefs, but my opinion comes from my time working 30+ years in the oil business. In the beginning of my career, I was responsible for traveling town-to-town by vehicle negotiating regional contracts; so its fare to say I’ve got to see a LARGE slice of America.


Maggie and I agree on this nearly every day. It just seems like every year, more and more of them keep coming into our neighborhood. I have the records to show you that in the Oklahoma area alone, property values are dropping slightly because of their arrival.

It’s sickening.

No doubt, when I’m driving through my neighborhood, it’s an eye-sore. The last thing we both want to see is another damn water tower pop-up. We have enough of them already and I was sad to read about the one in Wichita that made national news.

I’ve appreciated everyone’s opinions on the Irrigation issue. It’s something I think we all need to discuss more. MAGA

I don't know how I missed this post, but I'm really glad I chose to look back through your post history.

[Kung Wu]

Is it time to consider conquering Venezuela and any of the other countries that the immigrants are coming from? I mean if they are being tortured by their governments, maybe we need to impose regime change down there and make them constitutional Republics, like we did with Japan? Maybe get to the source of the immigration problem, instead of being confused and fighting over the symptom?

[C0|dB|00ded]

That would be an insta-30 million welfare role addition. We could use their vast oil reserves to basically put everybody on government assistance but that sounds a lot like communism doesn't it? More dire would be the impact worldwide on such behavior. Literally the following day after we did that, Russia would start "collecting" eastern European territories.

I say we build a 300 foot wall and start tossing Dale Carnegie pamphlets over the top.


T


...:cool:

[ShockerPrez]

Lets say we did march in, and lets even say a majority of say, Venezuela wanted it.

Can you imagine the comparisons to the Nazis that we would have?

It could be completely bloodless, a smashing success, the Venezuelans lives immediately improved and the country became the equivalent of Hawaii.

And the U.S. would be the new imperialist and all hell would break loose. I would bet even money that it could spark a world war.

[Kung Wu]

Our children/grandchildren are going to grow up in something more like Amerika than America. That will largely be because of this immigration crisis. What a shame.

[wufan]

I’d rather we limit immigration (to current levels), add border security, grant immunity for those that are in the states, end the war on drugs, kill the tariffs, and stay out of foreign wars.

[C0|dB|00ded]

We can't kill the tariffs at this point. They are actually working. The classroom only addresses academic theory, but as we all know, theory doesn't always jibe with reality. We are dealing with an economic adversary that cheats the system. Our tariffs are merely balancing out China's tariffs. Then when you add in the intellectual property theft costs, our actions are justified further. Nobody in government has had the balls to tackle the "China problem". Trump is doing it while the U.S. economy is very strong (the perfect time). This is a bitter pill to swallow indeed but there's a very strong probability that in the end, we are going to be MUCH better for having swallowed it. We'll see. The only other choice was the status quo which came with a rather dire prediction - China's nuts hanging under our chins in about 20 years.


T


...:cool:

[SB Shock]

China has no plans (only lip service) to open their markets. Look at "China 2025" that they are implementing - their ultimate goal is to become import free as much as possible through R&D, reverse engineering and stealing IP (and they are doing a lot of this).

I would increase tariffs on China and force American companies to look elsewhere other than China to produce their products.