Xi-Trump Meeting

[SB Shock]

Looks like the meeting with President Trump and President Xi of China went well. China press (state controlled) has come out and said:

SHANGHAI/BEIJING (Reuters) - Chinese state media on Saturday cheered the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping as one that showed the world that confrontation between the two powers was not inevitable.

China Daily said both parties appeared "equally enthusiastic about the constructive relationship they have promised to cultivate".
"This may sound surreal to those preoccupied with an 'inescapable' conflict scenario between what they see as rising and incumbent powers," the newspaper wrote in an editorial.


"But that Beijing and Washington have so far managed to do well in preventing conflicts shows confrontation is not inevitable."

State-run Chinese tabloid Global Times said the meeting "served as an indicator that the China-U.S. relationship is still very much on course since the Trump administration took office in January", and it was likely the two nations would develop a more "pragmatic relationship".


"It seems that both countries have understood the importance of how essential a smooth transition needs to be, and not just for the two countries involved here, but really for the entire world over," it said.

China and the US have wrapped up their two-day presidential summit with a bold 100-day plan to tackle their trade disputes and explore new ways to enhance military dialogue.

So it looks like there is less chance for some type of trade war. No news on whether they have come up with a strategy in dealing with NK.

[Play Angry]

I am relieved that so far Trump has reneged on all his promises to label China a currency manipulator and apply tariffs on our imports from there.

[SB Shock]

There seemed to be some agreement with Trump and Xi on the Norks. Just this week the Chinese Daily, Global Time and the China Military have each published commentaries on the NK [all mouth pieces of the Chinese government]. The following excerpts come from KGS Nightwatch publication

Chinese Daily said:

The commentary listed four tripwires that could prompt Chinese military intervention in North Korea.

1.China will tolerate no pollution in northeastern China from North Korean nuclear activity.
2.China will not allow North Korean refugees to enter China in the event of internal turmoil in North Korea.
3.China will not tolerate a government in Pyongyang that is hostile to China.


4.The US must not push its forces to the Yalu River

This is unique as it shows there is some circumstances that China could take military action of their own to restore stability. No. 4 interesting as it says that they would tolerate U.S. to go into NK, but to stay away from the Yalu.

The next commentary outlined these points:

1.North Korea’s nuclear infrastructure is fixed and its sites are well known.
2.An attack that destroyed the facilities would permanently suspend the nuclear program because it has no capacity to absorb an attack and rebuild.
3.Once it loses its nuclear weapons, North Korea will become obedient because,
4.North Korean leaders will panic if the nuclear facilities are destroyed

The China Military commentary was:

The author listed four things that North Korean leaders need to know and urged countries with access to impress them on the leadership.

1.North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and missile are too small to present a credible deterrent. North Korean leaders misunderstand their enemies. Also, the North Korean dual pursuit of economic development and nuclear weapons, the so-called byungjin strategy, is a fantasy.
2.North Koreans need to know that sanctions will never be lifted as long as they have a nuclear weapons program. As a corollary, the author wrote that China and Russia do not see eye-to-eye on many issues, but on the North Korean nuclear issue, they agree. North Korea cannot play one against the other.
3.North Korea does not understand the power of the US. North Korean nuclear weapons might cause some physical damage to the US, but North Korea would be wiped out. It would cease to exist.
4.The only and best path to security for North Korea is to voluntarily surrender its nuclear program.

The commentator concluded with the assertion that the North Korean nuclear problem must be settled soon to avoid war. He estimated a window of four years at most.

So KGS Nightwatch summary of the 3 commentaries is:

General comment: Taken together, the three commentaries provide rare glimpses of Chinese crisis management thinking and planning about North Korea. They contain messages for all regional actors.


Most importantly, they convey the message that Chinese crisis managers have the North Korean situation in hand and that there is no need for a unilateral US attack. If an attack is needed, China has the plans, capabilities and intention to deliver it and some unique trip wires.

The three also are instructive about the ripple effects of an attack against North Korean nuclear installations. The immediate consequences will be severe and China’s to cope with. The articles demonstrate that Chinese leaders have thought deeply about and fully understand the burdens they might have to shoulder.

A number of points merit repetition in conclusion. Some Chinese military leaders judge that war is inevitable as long as North Korea possesses nuclear weapons. China has plans and intentions to use military force against North Korean nuclear facilities under some circumstances. One of the trip wires for intervention is not military at all, but pollution and fallout from a nuclear test that damages China. China is determined to maintain regional stability at whatever cost. China will support and enforce even stricter sanctions against North Korea.

[SB Shock]

SEOUL (Reuters) - Foreign journalists visiting North Korea have been told to prepare for a "big and important event" on Thursday, although there were no indications it was directly linked to tensions in the region over the isolated state's nuclear weapons program.
Around 200 foreign journalists are in Pyongyang as the country marks the 105th birth anniversary of its founding president Kim Il Sung on April 15, North Korea's biggest national day called "Day of the Sun".


Officials gave no details as to the nature of the event or where it would take place, and similar announcements in the past have been linked to relatively low-key set pieces.
In 2016, for example, foreign journalists underwent hours of investigation by North Korean officials ahead of what turned out to be a pop concert to mark the finale of a ruling Workers' Party congress.