Tweet
Now that we are in a recession again, after 8 years of Obama, do we just repeat over and over "Obama's fault"?
-
Kung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille! -
Clearly it's the fault of the obstructionists in Congress. -
It's never not the republicans' fault. Thats how it works...Comment
-
You're right. Bush's fault.Originally posted by Dave Stalwart View PostThere are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese.Comment
-
You almost don't need to even know what the problem is first. You can start by blaming the republicans and then ask what the problem is.Originally posted by MoValley John View PostComment
-
Are you referring to Trump's recession prediction or just decided yourself that there is a recession?Originally posted by Kung Wu View PostIn the fast laneComment
-
Originally posted by tropicalshox View Post
CNBC isn't Fox, so maybe you'll consider the source credible.
Also, railroad shipping hasbeen down sharply. Railroads have long been a great measuring stick for the upcoming economy.There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese.Comment
-
New York Times article. Possibly not in recession.Originally posted by tropicalshox View PostKung Wu say, man who read woman like book, prefer braille!Comment
-
It may be CNBC, but it's still commentary and is labeled as such. This is one guy's opinion (although I'll concede his opinion may be shared by some others).Originally posted by MoValley John View Post
Railroad shipping is down mainly due to sharp declines in coal traffic. Some other commodities are down, such as oil and metals, but it's by no means a widespread situation. In fact, intermodal loadings have increased, which is an indication of increasing consumer demand and a strengthening economy."It's amazing to watch Ron slide into that open area, Fred will find him and it's straight cash homie."--HCGMComment
-
Ummmm...... No. Intermodal is down, trucking is down. Rail is down across the board. I still contend, it's Bush's fault.Originally posted by Rocky Mountain Shock View Post
From the November article: It's not just these well-known culprits:*shipments of a range of other items from chemicals to fertilisers and other industrial supplies were also lower as the industrial economy ran into stiff headwinds from a stronger dollar and sluggish capital spending.There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese.Comment
-
Believe me on the railroad thing when i say it isn't all coal. Baekken crude is non-existent. And grain is in the heavy shipping time of year until the end of this month. Intermodal at best is where it was at the beginning of last year. BNSF has 5-6000 employees furloughed right now. The UP is just as bad off, if not worse.Comment
-
UP is worse from what I've heard.There are three rules that I live by: never get less than twelve hours sleep; never play cards with a guy who has the same first name as a city; and never get involved with a woman with a tattoo of a dagger on her body. Now you stick to that, and everything else is cream cheese.Comment
-
-
Ummmm..... Yes.Originally posted by MoValley John View PostUmmmm...... No. Intermodal is down, trucking is down. Rail is down across the board. I still contend, it's Bush's fault.
From the November article: It's not just these well-known culprits:*shipments of a range of other items from chemicals to fertilisers and other industrial supplies were also lower as the industrial economy ran into stiff headwinds from a stronger dollar and sluggish capital spending.
Straight from the horse's mouth:
"Total U.S. weekly rail traffic for the week ending April 2, 2016 was 491,979 carloads and intermodal units, down 10.4 percent compared with the same week last year.
Total carloads for the week ending April 2 were 238,138 carloads, down 14.3 percent compared with the same week in 2015, while U.S. weekly intermodal volume was 253,841 containers and trailers, down 6.4 percent compared to 2015.
Three of the 10 carload commodity groups posted an increase compared with the same week in 2015. They included miscellaneous carloads, up 20.2 percent to 9,324 carloads; chemicals, up 12.1 percent to 34,131 carloads; and grain, up 4.3 percent to 21,761 carloads. Commodity groups that posted decreases compared with the same week in 2015 were coal, down 39.2 percent to 62,256 carloads; petroleum and petroleum products, down 24.6 percent to 10,670 carloads; and motor vehicles and parts, down 3.2 percent to 17,330 carloads.
For the first 13 weeks of 2016, U.S. railroads reported cumulative volume of 3,143,251 carloads, down 13.8 percent from the same point last year; and 3,339,672 intermodal units, up 1.5 percent from last year. Total combined U.S. traffic for the first 13 weeks of 2016 was 6,482,923 carloads and intermodal units, a decrease of 6.5 percent compared to last year."
The bolding was my emphasis. While this certainly does not post a rosy picture of traffic volumes, that's not what my point is. What is my point is that coal is skewing total volume. The most recent (April 6th) AAR press release points out excluding coal, March 2016 was down 1.2% from March 2015, which is hardly a clear and overwhelming indication of a worsening economy. My brother-in-law, a BNSF conductor based out of Denver, was furloughed last year and what he is saying is that right now 99.9% of the problem is coal (though I'll concede this may be a regional bias since we're in the thick of Powder Basin country here). Coal's demise arrived faster than the railroads were anticipating and it caught them a little off guard. They are scrambling to diversify their traffic portfolio to compensate.
But yeah, I'll totally agree with the Bush's fault thing."It's amazing to watch Ron slide into that open area, Fred will find him and it's straight cash homie."--HCGMComment
-
While coal is a major reason that many are furloughed on the powder river basin, it definitely isn't the only reason. I can't remember exactly when it happened, but BNSF took on a huge FedEx contract and they started shipping alot more by rail. I thought it was last year, but could be wrong. Also, it seems ups is shipping more by rail as well. This accounts for some of the intermodal difference.
Also, some of those double stack trains you see are filled with grain. So that scues numbers from one category to another.
I think a truly better number to look at for intermodal would be looking at the major ports total lifts numbers. That is the import/export numbers and not the trucking companies deciding it is cheaper to put it on a train than it is to drive it across country.
I work for the BNSF and every once in a while, I notice truck trailers that I havent seen on trains. WalMart is one I have seen alot more recently. There is quite a bit more to the slow downs than is up front. But economic indicators are pointing towards a recession due to rail traffic.Comment
Comment