Republican Race for Delegates

[shocka khan]

Aargh, I agree with everything you say except for this:

The e-mail server thing has been beat to death. Her ties to Wall Street have been beat to death.

There are 150 FBI agents actively investigating the homebrew server. Plus I noted an article on one of the security list servs that I belong to that flatly stated that someone in the far east (while she was traveling there) got into her server and read her emails. The article went on to say that shortly after she returned, State issued a high-priority advisory instructing people to secure their computer information (including emails) when they traveled there.

And shortly after that, she encrypted her homebrew server.

The gist of the article was that her not securing sensitive information properly lead to a breach of data on her computer (because of the timing and priority of the advisory) and because her server was hastily encrypted within DAYS of the advisory being issued the author concluded that this points to her being the cause of the advisory.

I don't think this server thing's dead by a long ways. And I believe she will be beat up in the election because of it. Benghazi, on the other hand, is just a red herring. There were a number of embassy attacks during the Bush administration, which resulted in the deaths of around 85 people (most of which were foreign nationals), but the net number of American embassy workers who were killed was roughly the same number as Benghazi. The major difference (and one the Republicans should have played up but didn't) was that an ambassador was killed at Benghazi.

Benghazi was a lost opportunity for the republicans. It is over and it will not change anyone's mind in November.

[SB Shock]

Benghazi revelations may or may not be over. Judicial watch has been granted discovery by a federal judge because it was found that Hillary had shown improper and bad faith in the FOIA requests. Of course the state department is dragging their feet, fighting against it.

I disagree with the assessment that nothing has came from the investigation. It dispelled several myths that Clinton and the state department were lying about. Not sure why they felt they needed to lie because it was a non-issue if they just told the truth. But this is another reason why she is struggling with a socialist in what should have been a coronation. People talk about Trump unfavorables, but hers are just as bad.

As far as Trump vs Cruz. I hear some say that Trump can beat Hillary, but Cruz has no shot - but that is exactly the opposite of the polling data. But my gutt says Trump can beat her because he will destroy her in 1 on 1. I also think Cruz would energize their base and probably can't win. So I have no idea.

All I can say is we live in interesting times - it almost like watching real life House of Cards.

[shocka khan]

I agree with the observation that Trump could beat Clinton. He's really been turning out the vote.

Neither of the other republican candidates in the race has a chance.

However, Paul Ryan has come out from the shadows in the last couple of days. Would he (or could he) be the Republican pick in a deadlocked convention? I'd say he's probably more palatable than Cruz or Kasich.

However, if he gets screwed over, I'd look for Trump to do a third party run. That will really kill the republican's chances......

[RoyalShock]

As the party rules state right now, only Trump or Cruz can get the nomination. Four years ago Romney got a rule passed to keep Ron Paul from having a shot in the case of a contested convention. And that is a requirement to win a majority of delegates in a minimum of eight states. Win seven or fewer states, any votes for you after the initial vote will not be counted.

Of course, they can just do what they did back then and get the rule changed during party business before the delegates vote.

[shocka khan]

Here's a link to the piece regarding Hillary, her homebrew server and the trip she took where people seemed to be eavesdropping (some of it looks like it was taken from the Op-Ed of WaPo):

http://lawnewz.com/high-profile/former-dhs-official-very-real-probability-asian-intelligence-services-read-unsecured-clinton-e-mails/

[SB Shock]

I agree with the observation that Trump could beat Clinton. He's really been turning out the vote.

Neither of the other republican candidates in the race has a chance.

Make you wonder who is keeping Kasich in the race, and what he was promised. Last numbers I seen his campaign owed $4.6 million.

However, Paul Ryan has come out from the shadows in the last couple of days. Would he (or could he) be the Republican pick in a deadlocked convention? I'd say he's probably more palatable than Cruz or Kasich.

Interesting question on Ryan - assuming the Republican party change the rules, could the Republican candidate be somebody who never did one debate or ran in a single primary. Personally I don't have anything against Ryan, but then again I have seen Ryan in the trenches and all his positions.

However, if he gets screwed over, I'd look for Trump to do a third party run. That will really kill the republican's chances......

Do you wonder why Trump is taking a break from campaign? There are multiple reports Trump is laying off staff and their is disarray in his campaign.

When you look at some of the over the top, stupid stuff he says and then all the stuff going on which his campaign - it makes you really wonder if Trump really wants to be president.......

[Kung Wu]

Do you wonder why Trump is taking a break from campaign? There are multiple reports Trump is laying off staff and their is disarray in his campaign.

When you look at some of the over the top, stupid stuff he says and then all the stuff going on which his campaign - it makes you really wonder if Trump really wants to be president.......

I hadn't heard about that, but I haven't been able to keep with the news at all lately. It makes me wonder if he is surprised to be in the situation he is in, and now that he knows he can win it all is perhaps upgrading his staff to the heavyweight campaign managers? Would make a lot of sense for a businessman to be much more cautious initially since he is spending a ton of his own money, and then to go heavy once he sees that there is a decent chance of pulling it off. But again, I haven't read or heard anything other than what you wrote -- so I am talking out the side of my neck.

[wu_shizzle]

I hadn't heard about that, but I haven't been able to keep with the news at all lately. It makes me wonder if he is surprised to be in the situation he is in, and now that he knows he can win it all is perhaps upgrading his staff to the heavyweight campaign managers? Would make a lot of sense for a businessman to be much more cautious initially since he is spending a ton of his own money, and then to go heavy once he sees that there is a decent chance of pulling it off. But again, I haven't read or heard anything other than what you wrote -- so I am talking out the side of my neck.

At this point, no candidate is likely going to get to 1,237 delegates.

It looks like Cruz has continued to take the long strategy of preparing for a contested convention where he has the greatest likelihood of being the winner of the 2nd ballot.

If Trump is just now looking to change strategies, he's too late.

[Kung Wu]

If Trump is just now looking to change strategies, he's too late.

I don't think it's a matter of changing strategies. I think of it more like revving it into a higher gear.

[Aargh]

If there's a brokered convention, and maybe some interesting rules adopted before the delegates vote, and Cruz gets the nomination...

...

[SB Shock]

Trump is about to end his delegate drought. Will it be Tsunami? Or just a small gully washer?

[Kung Wu]

Trump is about to end his delegate drought. Will it be Tsunami? Or just a small gully washer?

How much will the Colorado shenanigans affect him?

[tropicalshox]

It will be a tsunami. How Trump does with the unbound Pennsylvania delegates is important. The West coast primaries will have a chance to put Trump over. I give him slightly better than 50/50 for a first ballot win.

[SB Shock]