Super Tuesday - March Madness

[Play Angry]

Decent night for Cruz so far. Rubio needs some strong numbers in Minnesota to salvage headlines for the next two weeks.

Trump has to be generally pleased although some states he's winning have been really close (VA, AR, VT) and losing OK did not seem like it was on the radar coming into the evening. Probably most importantly for him, nothing that's happened so far tonight indicates an imminent drop out by other candidates (except for perhaps Carson, but who knows how long he will hold on).

[SB Shock]

I'm not seeing a way for Rubio to go forward unless he wins something tonight. Looking at Florida he is down 16 to 20% to Trump. How does he make that up in 2 weeks? There would need to be something big to change the dynamics - only scenario I can see is Kasich and Carson dropping out tomorrow, but that doesn't seem likely.

[DUShock]

Rubio is done or will be after Florida. He is trailing Trump by 20+ points in his home state.

[Play Angry]

Kasich definitely a thorn in Rubio's side tonight. His 90,000+ votes in VA cost Rubio a win there, even if you assume Trump peels off 10% of those and the rest are split 50/40 between Rubio and Cruz.

Meaningless in terms of delegates but @SB Shock: is right, he needs a win somewhere to keep the narrative from counting him out.

[SB Shock]

Rubio is just missing the 20% threshold by 1-2% in 5 of the states which could shut him out of getting delegates. He does have a early lead in Minnesota.

[Kung Wu]

The country needs Cruz, but I don't think he can beat Hillary. Trump can beat Hillary, but his politics are all over the place. Rubio is the best blend of the two, and can beat Hillary -- but he can't beat Trump if Cruz and the also rans won't drop out. Cruz has enough momentum that he shouldn't drop out; which means the best hope for the GOP, Rubio, is ultimately screwed. And by the time he throws in the towel, Trump will be unstoppable.

[Play Angry]

Trump in a pretty distant 3rd in Minnesota with 34% of the vote in. Rubio and Cruz battling for the lead there.

His performance in Minnesota, coupled with Iowa and Oklahoma, looks like it validates the concern for his ability to succeed in the Midwest. Illinois is going to be a dogfight on March 15.

[Kung Wu]

Trump in a pretty distant 3rd in Minnesota with 34% of the vote in. Rubio and Cruz battling for the lead there.

His performance in Minnesota, coupled with Iowa and Oklahoma, looks like it validates the concern for his ability to succeed in the Midwest. Illinois is going to be a dogfight on March 15.

What percent of the total delegate pool would you say the Midwest represents? Enough to change the tide?

[Play Angry]

What percent of the total delegate pool would you say the Midwest represents? Enough to change the tide?

Definitely enough to keep Trump from the 1,237 delegates he needs to avoid a brokered convention. Illinois and Ohio are winner-take-all on March 15, and Missouri that same day is divided by Congressional district if nobody is > 50%.

[SB Shock]

Arkansas called for Trump

[Play Angry]

Rubio running away with Minnesota.

Looks like we're still left with a mess. Cruz had a good night but his SEC strategy from the fall has been blown to bits and most of his best states are behind him now. Rubio looks like he's finally going to get the win he needs to stay relevant, but he sorta screwed the pooch by missing out on 50+ delegates in several proportional states with the 20% threshold. Trump wins ~40-44% of the evening's delegates but lost a couple states (OK, MN) where he was supposed to win and narrowly held on in a few others (VA, VT). We'll see late tonight how Alaska turns out.

[SB Shock]

Rubio finally get his victory in Minnesota. He needed it called about 30 minutes ago when he was on TV.

[SB Shock]

I thought it was funny that Kasich was calling for Rubio to drop out because it was Rubio costing Kasich from winning states.

[Play Angry]

Pretty wild to look at Trump's margins in the sparsely populated counties in economically depressed areas (coal country, etc.). He loses most cities and suburbs, but man does he ever dominate in the middle of nowhere.

[Play Angry]

Looking like Cruz may edge Trump in Alaska - he is up 35.6% to 33.2% w/44% reporting. Anything that chips away at the image of inevitability is a plus.