Trump

[Kung Wu]

Rubio would have won the vast majority of the current Trump voter group, + a sizeable chunk of moderates who dislike Clinton but feel Trump gives them no chance to do anything but vote for her to keep him out. Even Bernie supporters would have had less reason to hold their nose and vote Clinton. Trump (rightly) scares people. Rubio would have offered a safe outlet for a protest vote by frustrated liberals.

Trump started behind Clinton and has remained a similar distance behind the whole way. Rubio would have started in front and added to his lead throughout the email scandal.

I truly find it incredible that people still think Trump is/was the Republican's best shot to win.

Nope.

Not when it came out 3 weeks before the election that he is being accused of molesting a quadriplegic 9 year old girl at an anti-gay rally.

The mafia would have drummed up stupid crap on him and he wouldn't have handled it. He wasn't even prepared to handle the benign attacks on him during the primary. This experience will pay off down the road, but any unbiased person could clearly see he wasn't ready this time around.

And Rubio would NOT have started out ahead of Clinton. His temporary lead in the "vs" polls during the primary was before Hillary started trending up. She would have started ahead of him going in, and the media -- being in collusion -- would have kept it that way.

[ShockingButTrue]

You can have your wildly friendly interpretation of his actual words, but come on man... *if* he really meant it the way I'm interpreting, and really called them too ugly to assault, that's not failure to be "PC"... it's proof he's a disgusting piece of crap.

PC vs un-PC? Give me a break!

No, it's politically correct vs. politically corrupt. Apparently there is no difference in...

[SB Shock]

You can have your wildly friendly interpretation of his actual words, but come on man... !

I hardly see why you need to add your own spin on things. I would think Trumps words stand on their own. You have lectured many for giving our own interpretation or spin to what the witch has done.

[shockmonster]

I don't defend Trump at all. He's bad and she's worse and one of them will be our President. I would rather him than her.

[ShockerPrez]

I don't defend Trump at all. He's bad and she's worse and one of them will be our President. I would rather him than her.

They are both despicable...

His policies sound better and I think Pence can hold him in check. Vote cast for him.

[Play Angry]

I am fully aware of Secretary Rice's comments, as well as pretty much the entire Bush 41 & 43 teams. My hope is that some of the "best people" will still be willing to serve.

Ah, gotcha. In the unlikely event he wins, I hope you are right.

[ShockingButTrue]

They're here...

[jdshock]

How can it? I'm not saying Hillary is winning our losing, doing good or bad in early voting, but that there are exactly zero numbers released on early voting. Zero. If anyone really knew how early voting was trending, we would have a very, very bad problem. My guess is that political wonks assume early voting is going well for Clinton.

I hadn't really seen this explained anywhere, so I was also interested in how this works. Here's a little explanation: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/

Nevada is fairly unusual among states that allow early voting because it releases data on the party registration of early voters. Most people in the state vote early, and it hasn’t changed its early voting rules, giving us the 2012 election as a baseline. That means we can know if one party is voting in large numbers while at the same time understanding whether that large lead is going to hold through Election Day. Of course, it’s always possible that the early vote can mislead, so some caution is warranted.

So, there is some assumption that people vote their party.

Edit: bolded hyperlinks in the quote

[MoValley John]

I hadn't really seen this explained anywhere, so I was also interested in how this works. Here's a little explanation: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/



So, there is some assumption that people vote their party.

Edit: bolded hyperlinks in the quote

There are lots and lots of errors in exit voting. There are errors in sampling pay views. Personally, I hate polling, I don't think it's news, is spun.

[MoValley John]

I hadn't really seen this explained anywhere, so I was also interested in how this works. Here's a little explanation: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-early-vote-in-nevada-suggests-clinton-might-beat-her-polls-there/



So, there is some assumption that people vote their party.

Edit: bolded hyperlinks in the quote

There are lots and lots of errors in exit voting. There are errors in sampling pay views. Personally, I hate polling, I don't think it's news, is spin. I always lie to pollsters,I don't know why for sure, I just always do. I think there are many, many others that lie to pollsters as well.

[jdshock]

There are lots and lots of errors in exit voting. There are errors in sampling pay views. Personally, I hate polling, I don't think it's news, is spin. I always lie to pollsters,I don't know why for sure, I just always do. I think there are many, many others that lie to pollsters as well.

Hey, you asked, and I was just providing a source that mentioned it.

[Kung Wu]

There are lots and lots of errors in exit voting. There are errors in sampling pay views. Personally, I hate polling, I don't think it's news, is spin. I always lie to pollsters,I don't know why for sure, I just always do. I think there are many, many others that lie to pollsters as well.

OMG you are a liar!! You should be a Trump voter! LIAR!!!

[Kung Wu]

Carter vs Reagan all over again? Look. At. Those. Polls.

[jdshock]

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2016/11/01/prominent-economists-including-eight-nobel-laureates-do-not-vote-for-donald-trump/

[RoyalShock]

Here is a good piece on Pennsylvania.

My girlfriend is from Cambria County and her parents still live in Johnstown. That column fits right in with what she has told me about that area and the state as a whole.