Trump

[ShockingButTrue]

It was dated 1/26 so it shouldn't be too hard to find.

Here's another interesting one to debate:

www.cnsnews.com/news/arice/ternce-p-jeffery/ ... Hope it works.

[ShockingButTrue]

Dead link...with legs like that it's not running anywhere.

washingtontimes.com ? I think I had it different up top.

[Walker]

I thought illegals only took on jobs that Americans wouldn't do? :disillusionment:

Of course, I really never understood that argument in favor of allowing illegals to stay here because that's not the liberal end game. Once the progressive wand passes over them making them Americans, why would they continue to do those jobs?

Americans just don't like doing them for depreciated wages. All the other jobs, they want bi-lingual workers which has given people more incentive to leave and illegals to just keep coming. I always find it funny that liberals never live in the wonderful utopias they help create.

[CBB_Fan]

All the hubub and flailing about the wall is nonsensical and irrational, regardless of one's take on its actual efficacy.

There has been planning and funding appropriations made for a wall for decades, over congresses and presidents from both sides of the isle. Yes, it's finally happening... BFD.

It is really physically feasible, engineering-wise? I don't know, hop in your time machine and ask the Chinese builders from 500 years ago how they were able to construct a massive, 13,000 mile wall on the spine of a mountain range. I'm sure they can share some tips with today's snowflakes.

Asinine media, and the people who lap it up like manna in place of actual critical thinking.

An engineer on Trump's wall.

Twelve million, six hundred thousand cubic yards. In other words, this wall would contain over three times the amount of concrete used to build the Hoover Dam — a project that, unlike Trump’s wall, has qualitative, verifiable economic benefits ... Concrete, of course, requires reinforcing steel (or rebar). A reasonable estimate for the amount of rebar would be about 3 percent of the total wall size, resulting in a steel volume of 10,190,000 cubic feet, or about 5 billion pounds. We could melt down 4 of our Nimitz-class aircraft carriers and would probably be a few cruisers short of having enough steel. ...

But the challenge is far greater than simply collecting the necessary raw materials. All of these hundreds of miles of wall would need to be cast in concrete facilities, probably project-specific ones that have been custom built near the border. Then, the pre-cast wall pieces would need to be shipped by truck through the inhospitable, often roadless desert. The men and women doing the work of actually installing the wall would have to be provided with food, water, shelter, lavatory facilities, safety equipment, transportation, and medical care, and would sometimes be miles away from a population center of any size. ...
This analysis also ignores the less sexy aspects of large-scale engineering projects: surveying, land acquisition, environmental review, geological studies, maintenance, excavating for foundations, and so on. Theoretical President Trump may be able to executive-order his way through the laser grid of lawsuits that normally impede this kind of work, but he can’t ignore the physical realities of construction.

Is it possible? Sure. We could do it. But if we want to talk about the Great Wall of China, let's not forget that the Wall was built between 700 BC to 1800 AD, between the Eastern Zhao dynasty and the Qing dynasty, with most of the remaining wall today having been built in the Ming dynasty between 1368 and 1644. Trump has 4, maybe 8 years. It isn't the same thing.

The cost would be tremendous. At 12.6 million cubic yards, and concrete costs of $90/ft and $60/ft per delivery you are looking at $51B in concrete, or $209 from every adult in the United States. However, this estimate is likely conservative due to the need to precast the concrete in specialized facilities. The steel rebar would cost an additional $1.63B. But again, that's is just materials. And this is assuming a 25 ft height, far lower than what Trump himself has suggested ("I think the height could be 35 to 45 feet. That's a good height"). If that is the case, more than double the amount of materials.

For the easiest sections of the border, the cost for one mile of fencing is estimated at $2.8 to $3.9 million. That is for 27 feet tall fence, with 6 feet underground cemented in with a 3 foot concrete base. Something around $500,000 of that is material costs, so an estimate for a wall cost with similar labor costs would be $290B to $350B, though again that is highly conservative given the extra labor costs to build a wall compared to a fence and more difficult terrain. So your total cost is a conservative $350B to $400B.

For the local economies, this would drive the price of concrete up tremendously. Texas is our largest producer of concrete, but even so it would take roughly half the state's production to get done in 4-5 years. This means that Texas will need to import massive amounts of concrete for the project or to keep supplying its construction, at high cost.

If Trump gets his wish and a 45 foot structure gets approved, the total cost could easily break a trillion dollars. That probably is just a number for most people, so let's break it down. That is:

• 16 years of tuition free public college at current rate (students paid $62.6B in tuition last year)
• 10-12 manned Mars missions (cost of manned Mars mission estimated at $8B to $10B over 20 years)
• 37,000 schools (at median cost $26M per school)
• $4,115 for every US adult
• 7,900 years for the US endowment of the arts ($140M)
• 20 years with 2.3 million border patrol officers, 100X the guard towers and 300,000 security devices, ie drones, sensors (current budget $447M, 21,000 agents and 3,900 "excess equipment")

All of this, to DO NOTHING about the primary source of illegal immigration: overstayed visas. Not daring border dashes in the middle of the night, but people who came here legally and stayed illegally. If you want to stop all illegal immigration for the same cost, multiply the current border patrol budget by 10X to buy smart drones and sensors and intercept vehicles and salaries ($3.7B), erect a 500' statue of Trump in every state ($300M), and then with the remaining $996B give everyone in the United States a $3000 check.

And if you want to claim that somehow it will cost slightly less than the $2.8M/mile it took to build a simple fence (the $10B or so figure thrown around) you would still save $6 billion with this plane while creating 10X more jobs and doing a much better job solving illegal immigration. And if you want it for the ego boost, well that's what the 500 foot statues are for.

I hope that explains in enough detail why the wall is such a financial waste. And for reference, the other "walled nation" people love to talk about when they advocate for a wall, Israel, uses the technology I talk about. Sensors, drones, and guns. Far better, far cheaper than acting like it is still the 7th century BC and thinking that pouring masonry is the best solution.

[SHOCKvalue]

^Oh, so do we just run down to Kansas Blueprint and pick up our Trumpwall plan sets already? I see you've sent out for sub quotes on materials. Good work! Get in front of it! Did they look at you sorta funny when you asked for concrete quoted by the foot, instead of the cubic yard? $4,050 per cubic yard delivered is pretty rough. Guess that would make it pretty expensive in your calculations.

[Aargh]

If we have nukes, why can't we use them

If torture works, we need to use it.

Those attitudes cause me some concern. What causes even more concern is that when I've brought these subjects up, my conservative friends have defended and promoted the use of torture.

[CBB_Fan]

^Oh, so do we just run down to Kansas Blueprint and pick up our Trumpwall plan sets already? I see you've sent out for sub quotes on materials. Good work! Get in front of it! Did they look at you sorta funny when you asked for concrete quoted by the foot, instead of the cubic yard? $4,050 per cubic yard delivered is pretty rough. Guess that would make it pretty expensive in your calculations.

Know what the good thing about those calculations is? You could lower the costs by a factor of 27 and still have it be colossally more expensive than necessary. Hell, make the concrete free. We'll steal it from Mexico, no cost. Still have to pay for the steel though, and the people, and shipping everything, and building the specialized plants, and building the living quarters for ~15,000 workers across the border, and the ancillary support for those living quarters.

Steel - $1.3B
Workers - $3.37B ($45000*15000*5)
Shipping - $900M (estimate based on freight shipping rate, for concrete 2X/steel/living quarters)
Living Quarters - $150M (~7500 movable temporary living quarters)
Pre-cast Plants - $25M
Food - $400M (shipped in)
Water - $200M
Misc - $500M

Just spitballing, that is getting you close to $7 billion for the 20 foot wall before you add in concrete. Now if you want a 45 foot wall, even without paying for the concrete you are going to increase your requirements everywhere else by at least a factor of 2, probably closer to 3 as the wall would have get thicker as well as taller. And now remember this is the government. Think that $7B pre-concrete price tag will match the final cost? And there is still much we haven't accounted for: surveying, legal fees, engineering costs, etc. Encroach on the territory of the endangered foss-breathing mouth locus and you'll spend $10M defending yourself in front of environmentalists before the first year is over.

If you think wasting my money like that is fine, that is your opinion. But don't you dare call yourself a financial conservative when you are willing to burn your money erecting a useless wall when the border patrol themselves says a sensors + drones + personal upgrade would be more effective for far less money, and when you aren't even solving the main issue of illegal immigration (legal entry, illegal stay). You'll get a feel-good, visible mark that does very little but take money out of your pocketbook and disrupt construction projects throughout the South.

If you want to solve the wrong problems with the wrong solutions in the most expensive way, congratulations: You are qualified to work for the federal government. But you make one hell of a bad financial conservative.

[SHOCKvalue]

I don't really have a dog in the fight concerning the wall. I was initially just pointing out the shrill nonsense associated with its discussion today (nationally).

As of right now I'm just interested in reading more of your posts with the numbers seemingly pulled out of your ass. It's good story-telling, if nothing else.

There's absolutely no way, under any circumstance, that one could currently forecast the scope of numbers you have proposed. It is so ridiculous on you're part that it comes off inane. The factor of three (not a factor of "27" as you say) mistake you made on something so common knowledge (concrete sold and priced as yd^3) should have been a sign to you to take a seat, but it appears you've just doubled-down on the dumb.

[ShockingButTrue]

Here's another interesting one to debate: ... Hope it works.

http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/terence-p-jeffrey/after-nafta-cumulative-us-merchandise-trade-deficit-mexico-nears

[ShockingButTrue]

Dead link...with legs like that it's not running anywhere.

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2017/jan/26/hillary-clinton-received-800000-votes-from-nonciti/

Try this. Maybe changes coming vis-a-vis voter ID?

[CBB_Fan]

I don't really have a dog in the fight concerning the wall. I was initially just pointing out the shrill nonsense associated with its discussion today.

As of right now I'm just interested in reading more of your posts with the numbers seemingly pulled out of your ass. It's good story-telling, if nothing else.

There's absolutely no way, under any circumstance, that one could current forecast the numbers you have proposed. It is so ridiculous on you're part that it comes off inane.

\

Know what? I don't need to need to run through every single number and source. I could give you a 50 citations list of where every thing comes from, but here's the thing: even with the very minimal level of proof I've shown, I've still cited and shown more work than every single proponent of the wall. You say you don't have a dog in the fight, yet you name-call and dismiss only one side. It is false neutrality to deflect criticism, nothing more.

If you want real-world values and government estimates, here you go:

The absolute cheapest estimate for a wall is the cost for the original border fence. The first 670 miles of fencing, built by Bush with the Secure Fence Act cost $2.4B. If we were rebuilding a fence across the entire border of 1951 miles that puts you at 2.4/670*1951=~$7B. And again, that is fencing. Even then, the project was significantly more expensive than believed:

Texas Rep. Michael McCaul, chairman of the House Committee on Homeland Security: "in our conversations with outside groups, experts and stakeholders, we learned that it would be an inefficient use of taxpayer money to complete the fence. … We are using that money to utilize other technology to create a secure border."

From 2007, when the U.S Customs and Border Protection BSFIT account was created, to 2014 the DHS installed 512 miles of fencing for $5.9B, on top of 140 previously existing miles. If we count just the new installation, that is $11.5 million/mile or if spread out to cover the full 652 miles $9 million/mile. At those rates you have between $11.6B (9*(1951-512-140)) and $22.4B (1951*11.5).

And again, that is 20 ft fencing in the most hospitable areas to build a wall. Not a 45 foot concrete wall in the least hospitable place to build a wall. And those weren't estimates, they were the actual costs of the actual fences we have actually made. If you can find a way to make a 50 ft concrete wall cost the same amount as a 20 ft fence, then yeah, you can get your wall for $11.6 to $22.4 billion. Or, if we want to use really basic numbers we can say: 50 feet up, 20 feet down, 1951*5280 feet long, 15 feet wide (minimum width of Great Wall of China) = 70 height * 10301280 length * 15 width = 10,816,344,000 cubic feet. $100/cubic yard + $100/cubic yard (delivery) = 10,816,344,000/27*$200 = $80.1B.

Of say we go back to reasonably small numbers: 25 feet up, 10 feet down, 1 foot in width (guess no walking on it) = 1951*5280*35*1 = 360544800 cubic feet. 360544800/27*200 = $2.67B.

And here is another real-world example to get away from those shrill numbers. Estimates were that the San Diego fence would cost $14 million, or about $1 million a mile. The actual price for the first 11 miles (the easy section) was $42 million, $3.8 million per mile. So again, numbers that are just materials costs don't capture the real cost of the wall. And we aren't even talking about how we are going to put a 25ft wall in the middle of lakes or support people in the middle of the desert building the thing, or build the 1951 mile long road to move materials, or any of the other of huge projects that would have to go along with this.

So we know that under the easiest possible conditions with a much cheaper material the wall would cost $7B using real world numbers. For a closer estimate with technology costs added in, the range is closer to $11.6B to $22.4B. Any estimate short of that $22.4B is likely to be low for even a fence, given the more difficult terrain and the current plan to fix the entire wall. Almost all the current fencing is single layer, small height fencing near urban areas, so just accounting for the increased size and remote location increases the price. That is pretty much indisputable, unless the government suddenly became far more efficient and invented a cheap way to put up the wall. The high end, by the GAO report's estimates, would be closer to $29.5B for fencing at $15.1B/mile. And if you go for the full concrete wall, the cost grows dramatically. And the estimated $750M/year in maintenance.

Now if you still think a 50' concrete wall can stretch from sea to sea for less than the price of single layer fencing near urban areas, I have a bridge or two to sell. It shouldn't take any more statistics or estimates to show how absolutely unreasonable that is. There is simply no way you'll even get the materials for that cost, and that typically is not even half the total cost.

[Kung Wu]

Know what? I don't need to need to ... [blah, blah, blah] ... simply no way you'll even get the materials for that cost, and that typically is not even half the total cost.

You are going to lot of trouble to demonstrate that the wall will cost about $7B to $22B as if that price tag will shock the crap out of Trump, when Trump himself has already said it would cost $11B to $15B. And he's built a LOT of very expensive projects.

On the other hand, I wonder what our federal, state, and local government net loss is per year due to illegal aliens? I bet that annual number makes a one time outlay of $22B seem like chump change.

[WuDrWu]

Doesn't government spend like $10B on condoms every year?

I know, I know.....$10B here, $10B there, pretty soon you're talking about real money.

[pinstripers]

Doesn't government spend like $10B on condoms every year?

I know, I know.....$10B here, $10B there, pretty soon you're talking about real money.

Had this conversation on Facebook with a female libtard. She replied, "those are for MEN." I swear this is true.

[ShockerPrez]

Doesn't government spend like $10B on condoms every year?

I know, I know.....$10B here, $10B there, pretty soon you're talking about real money.

We can take it from federal funds for global warming research.

After all thats settled science, right? What are we still researching/studying.