Syria Goes Hot on Global Political Frame

[SB Shock]

Yesterday, Turkey F-16(s) shoot down a Russian SU-24 for allegedly violating a 2-mile peninsula of Turkey. Which is being disputed. Russian has provided their own flight path. U.S. is publically siding with Turkey, but off the record said that Turkish aircraft actually went into Syria and shot down the Russian aircraft.

Nightwatch analysis is that Russia will see this as a premeditated attack by Turkey. Therefore Russia will avenge it. Russia has made the following moves:

1. Cancelled Russian foreign ministers meeting with Turkey for Russia-Turkey dialoged that was planned.
2 Strike aircraft will now operate with escorts
3. S-300 air defense system will be moved to Syria with proactive ROE
4 All military contacts with Turkey discontinued (they had a military hotline established, that Turkey didn't use).

Turkey has been making attacks into Syria (mainly against the Kurds) - that is likely to end. Russia will likely defend Syria airspace against any Turkish incursion.

[SB Shock]

The turkish and rusky views

[SB Shock]

Russia has taken the following additional actions:

1. Cancelled visa-free travel for Turks to Russia
2. Increased inspections of food being imported from Turkey, creating delays and increasing the perishability.
3. Russia increased their operational tempo in attacking rebel groups that Turkey support (including the the Turkmen).

Erdogan refused to apologize on the Nov 26. On Nov 27, Erdogan conceded that maybe they should have handled the incident differently, but warned Russia with "playing with fire" with sanctions.

Russia is considering suspending the gas pipeline deal with Turkey. Also are threatening to withdrawal support for helping Turkey build their first nuclear power plant. Once Russia gets their air defense in place they are shipping, they will be able to threaten anything that fly into syria.

[SB Shock]

Russians SU-34 made their debut on Nov 30. S-400 Air Defense systems have started arriving in Syria. Unconfirmed reports of new troop deployments of ground, artillery and armor units. Putin and Netanyahu met this weekend. There was grandstanding to tweek the turks as it was announced that Russian aircraft flew into Israeli airspace and were not shot at.

[Rlh04d]

Outside of the overall danger of something like this causing the Middle East to explode, I can't see any other way where a breakdown in Turkey/Russia relations isn't good for us overall.

[SB Shock]

Outside of the overall danger of something like this causing the Middle East to explode, I can't see any other way where a breakdown in Turkey/Russia relations isn't good for us overall.

the best thing that would happen in my mind is the military conduct a coup to remove the islamic government and re-install a secular on.

[Rlh04d]

the best thing that would happen in my mind is the military conduct a coup to remove the islamic government and re-install a secular on.

The best thing that would happen is a peaceful transition back to a secular one.

Military coups rarely work out well, although the '97 "coup" could be a useful guideline. Turkey has enjoyed one of the more responsible military's in the world for maintaining democratic freedom as well as secularism.