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1980- America takes a hard right 489-49 52.7% reporting
1984- United States still believes in Conservatism. 525-13 53.1% reporting
1988- Life after Reagan: Country believes Bush will continue the Status quo. 426-111 50.2% reporting
1992- Oh ****, Bush is a Moderate! America can't see the difference between the two candidates. Elects the young cool guy. 370-168 55.2% reporting
1996- Again, America see's no difference between the two, but elects the young cool guy. 379-159 49% reporting
2000- America still can't see the difference between moderate Republican and Democrat. 271-266 (47.9-48.4% respectively) 54.2% reporting
2004- War boons Bush's campaign, wins narrowly. 286-261 60.1% reporting
2008- America can't tell the difference between the two, but that old ass white guy looks funny. 365-173 61.6% reporting
2012- Can you see the difference? Me neither. 332-206 58.2% reporting
In the last 100 years:
8 Republican landslide elections (Harding 1920, Hoover 1928, Eisenhower 1952, 1956, Nixon 1972, Reagan 1980, 1984, Bush Sr 1988)
6 Democrat landslides elections (Roosevelt 1932, 1936, 1940, 1944, Truman 1948, Johnson 1964)
6 non-landslides (Coolidge[R] 1924, Nixon[R] 1968, Clinton[D] 1992, 1996, Obama[D] 2008, 2012)
5 close (Wilson[D]/Hughes[R] 1916, Kennedy[D]/Nixon[R] 1960, Carter[D]/Ford[R] 1976, Bush[R]/Gore[D] 2000, Bush[R]/Kerry[D] 2004).
To further break down the last 36 years-
Bush Sr won his first term riding the coat tails of Reaganism and then lost to a nobody in his incumbent campaign because he had abandoned Reaganism and moved moderate. Bob Dole was a moderate and lost. Then they nominated Bush Jr, and he lost the popular vote but managed to win the electoral college. Bush Jr won the 2004 election because of the war. Then the party nominated John McCain, a moderate. Then, a liberal turned Rhino, the father of Obamacare, Mitt Romney. Bush Jr was the only moderate that has been able to win an election, and America HATED him when it was all said and done.
Look at the sympathetic elections. Truman won because of the Democratic swing, but was too moderate to keep it going. Johnson won because of the Kennedy assassination but was succeeded by Nixon. Bush Sr won because of Reaganism but was succeeded by Clinton. Eisenhower was a 2 term Republican and 1960 was a close election to Kennedy. Nixon won 2 terms (the second was a blowout) and the country barely elected Carter over Ford next. Eight years after the big Nixon win, the country elected Reagan.
Its reasonable to assume that the conservative movement started with Nixon, climaxed in 1984 and died because of Bush Sr. Since Bush Sr, Democrats have occupied the White House 2/3rds of the time, but have not been popular enough to conclude this a democratic era. Rather, the last 24 years can be attributed to the GOP nominating poor candidates and the Democrats electing "cool" dudes.
The Democrats have a recent history of nominating upstarts and nobodies. Since Johnson, they have nominated Hubert Humphrey, George McGovern, Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama.
Humphrey was Mayor of Minneapolis, Majority Whip for four years, and then Johnson's VP before Spiro Agnew before being nominated to challenge Nixon in 1968.
George McGovern was a US senator from South Dakota for 10 years before being nominated. He was the first and only Chair of the United States Senate Select Committee on nutrition and Human Needs. He "challenged" Nixon, too.
Jimmy Carter was a peanut farmer before serving on the local school board. He translated that to 4 years in office as a State Senator, 2 failed attempts at governor and 1 successful one (4 years) before winning the nomination for President. He won, narrowly, against Ford.
Walter Mondale was Attorney General in MN from 60-64, US Senator 64-76, and Carters VP. He was slaughtered by Reagan in 84.
Michael Dukakis was a Massachusetts State Senator for 6 years and the Governor of Massachusetts for 4 years before running against Bush Sr. Kerry was one of his Lt's.
Bill Clinton was a 2 term Governor of Arkansas and Attorney General of Arkansas before being nominated to run against Bush Sr. He won.
Al Gore was a Senator for 8 years before serving 8 years as Clintons VP. He almost beat a Bush, too.
John Kerry was the Lt Governor to Dukakis and a Senator for almost 20 years when he ran against Bush.
Obama was a Community Organizer and a member of the Illinois Senate for 7 years and a US Senator for 3 years.
Based on history, Sanders will pull this off.
For the GOP, based on recent history, it will be Rubio.
1984- United States still believes in Conservatism. 525-13 53.1% reporting
1988- Life after Reagan: Country believes Bush will continue the Status quo. 426-111 50.2% reporting
1992- Oh ****, Bush is a Moderate! America can't see the difference between the two candidates. Elects the young cool guy. 370-168 55.2% reporting
1996- Again, America see's no difference between the two, but elects the young cool guy. 379-159 49% reporting
2000- America still can't see the difference between moderate Republican and Democrat. 271-266 (47.9-48.4% respectively) 54.2% reporting
2004- War boons Bush's campaign, wins narrowly. 286-261 60.1% reporting
2008- America can't tell the difference between the two, but that old ass white guy looks funny. 365-173 61.6% reporting
2012- Can you see the difference? Me neither. 332-206 58.2% reporting
In the last 100 years:
8 Republican landslide elections (Harding 1920, Hoover 1928, Eisenhower 1952, 1956, Nixon 1972, Reagan 1980, 1984, Bush Sr 1988)
6 Democrat landslides elections (Roosevelt 1932, 1936, 1940, 1944, Truman 1948, Johnson 1964)
6 non-landslides (Coolidge[R] 1924, Nixon[R] 1968, Clinton[D] 1992, 1996, Obama[D] 2008, 2012)
5 close (Wilson[D]/Hughes[R] 1916, Kennedy[D]/Nixon[R] 1960, Carter[D]/Ford[R] 1976, Bush[R]/Gore[D] 2000, Bush[R]/Kerry[D] 2004).
To further break down the last 36 years-
Bush Sr won his first term riding the coat tails of Reaganism and then lost to a nobody in his incumbent campaign because he had abandoned Reaganism and moved moderate. Bob Dole was a moderate and lost. Then they nominated Bush Jr, and he lost the popular vote but managed to win the electoral college. Bush Jr won the 2004 election because of the war. Then the party nominated John McCain, a moderate. Then, a liberal turned Rhino, the father of Obamacare, Mitt Romney. Bush Jr was the only moderate that has been able to win an election, and America HATED him when it was all said and done.
Look at the sympathetic elections. Truman won because of the Democratic swing, but was too moderate to keep it going. Johnson won because of the Kennedy assassination but was succeeded by Nixon. Bush Sr won because of Reaganism but was succeeded by Clinton. Eisenhower was a 2 term Republican and 1960 was a close election to Kennedy. Nixon won 2 terms (the second was a blowout) and the country barely elected Carter over Ford next. Eight years after the big Nixon win, the country elected Reagan.
Its reasonable to assume that the conservative movement started with Nixon, climaxed in 1984 and died because of Bush Sr. Since Bush Sr, Democrats have occupied the White House 2/3rds of the time, but have not been popular enough to conclude this a democratic era. Rather, the last 24 years can be attributed to the GOP nominating poor candidates and the Democrats electing "cool" dudes.
The Democrats have a recent history of nominating upstarts and nobodies. Since Johnson, they have nominated Hubert Humphrey, George McGovern, Jimmy Carter, Walter Mondale, Michael Dukakis, Bill Clinton, Al Gore, John Kerry, and Barack Obama.
Humphrey was Mayor of Minneapolis, Majority Whip for four years, and then Johnson's VP before Spiro Agnew before being nominated to challenge Nixon in 1968.
George McGovern was a US senator from South Dakota for 10 years before being nominated. He was the first and only Chair of the United States Senate Select Committee on nutrition and Human Needs. He "challenged" Nixon, too.
Jimmy Carter was a peanut farmer before serving on the local school board. He translated that to 4 years in office as a State Senator, 2 failed attempts at governor and 1 successful one (4 years) before winning the nomination for President. He won, narrowly, against Ford.
Walter Mondale was Attorney General in MN from 60-64, US Senator 64-76, and Carters VP. He was slaughtered by Reagan in 84.
Michael Dukakis was a Massachusetts State Senator for 6 years and the Governor of Massachusetts for 4 years before running against Bush Sr. Kerry was one of his Lt's.
Bill Clinton was a 2 term Governor of Arkansas and Attorney General of Arkansas before being nominated to run against Bush Sr. He won.
Al Gore was a Senator for 8 years before serving 8 years as Clintons VP. He almost beat a Bush, too.
John Kerry was the Lt Governor to Dukakis and a Senator for almost 20 years when he ran against Bush.
Obama was a Community Organizer and a member of the Illinois Senate for 7 years and a US Senator for 3 years.
Based on history, Sanders will pull this off.
For the GOP, based on recent history, it will be Rubio.
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