Saudi Oil Production Attacked

[SB Shock]

17 facilities at Saudi production facility were attacked. Roughly 5% of the daily production of crude oil has been taken down (facility produced 9.8 million barrels per day, 5.7 million knocked offline). Saudis are playing it down, but unclassified satellite photos showing the detail targetting - somebody knew what to target and whispers is this shortage will last months. Brent crude has jumped 19%.

sat1ar.jpg?itok=7grRsCn2.jpg

Houthi are taking credit, but it with the level of targeting and the location - it is very likely Iranians. Supposedly there is video evidence of cruise missiles coming in from the North (w/pictures of the remains of 1 shot down).

[SB Shock]

Looks like the Saudis and U.S. military and technology failed. Saudis didn't have their air defenses oriented in the right direction and what was there (using U.S. technology) failed to see the cruise missile attack and drone attack. This is not a good look for U.S. air defense systems as there has been criticism that they were not taking unmanned warfare seriously.

It is all circumstantial evidence it seems at the moment as they are finding the wreckage in the desert where some had mechanical difficulties and crashed, but they don't seem to have any direct intelligence that they can pinpoint exactly where they launched. The cruise missiles are thought to have been launched from Iran and the drones from Southern Iraq (though Pompeo is saying Iraq had no involvement).

It looks like the attacks of May 14 and Aug 17 were trial runs to evaluate the air defenses of Saudi Arabia. Israel is worried that Iran will get away with this and even further embolden them in Lebanon and Syria.

John Bolton is laughing.

[WheatShock]

What i'd like to know is if its really a failure of the weapons systems to function as designed or just a case of them not being where the attack happened. Its also quite possible that any defenses in place weren't "armed" or postured for a potential attack. I have no idea about how the Saudis structure their command and control and weapons release authority but weapons systems are often not even loaded or ready for immediate use in peace time.

[SB Shock]

What i'd like to know is if its really a failure of the weapons systems to function as designed or just a case of them not being where the attack happened.

That is a fair question to ask. It not clear at the moment where the patriot batteries were located relative to the threat and the target. Unfortunately, the Saudi system has been exposed in the past (see link below). Saudis are supposedly looking at the Russia S-400 (which means they are sending a message to the U.S. they are not happy.)

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/bu...l-attack-81171

Its also quite possible that any defenses in place weren't "armed" or postured for a potential attack. I have no idea about how the Saudis structure their command and control and weapons release authority but weapons systems are often not even loaded or ready for immediate use in peace time.

Air Defense is not air defense unless the systems are ready to be used. The rule of engagement might be tighter or looser in different parts of the world, but even the U.S. air defenses are prepared to be used at a moment notice.

But in Saudi Arabia case, they are not in peacetime. They are weapons-free. This article has a summary of all the attacks they have faced since 2015.

https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/201...s-saudi-arabia

One of the narratives is this is trump fault, but you will notice this started back in 2015. Walk softly, carry a big stick.

[ShockBand]

Sounds like the Saudi defenses were not well equipped for low flying cruise missiles and drones, if this report is accurate.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/09/19/how-saudi-arabia-failed-to-protect-itself-from-drones-missile-attacks.html