Tornadic day for S Central Kansas

[SubGod22]

Frontenac had their sirens go off recently.

[RoyalShock]

Here's a useful link if you want to keep up with warnings as they are issued.

http://kamala.cod.edu/svr/

[BenWSU]

Vortex2 target area is Mullinville

Go to bottom of this website & click enter stream to watch Mike Bettes go down the road covering tornadoes:

http://www.weather.com/tv/programs/Vortex.html

The video cuts in and out at times due to overpasses and weather.

[SB Shock]

Outflow boundary from storms in NE Kansas have pushed through Wichita and have taken the warm front (and heat/moisture) with it and switched the winds now coming from NE.

Before Outflow Boundary:

Temp. 88 degrees
Dewpoint 70 degrees

After Outflow Boundary:

Temp. 78 Degrees
Dewpoint: 67 Degree

[ShockerFever]

You can kiss any tornadic weather for Wichita goodbye.


I think threads like these before the storms jinxes it. :lol:

[SB Shock]

You can kiss any tornadic weather for Wichita goodbye.


I think threads like these before the storms jinxes it. :lol:

Since the boundary is just south of Wichita, Wichita is hardly out of the woods just yet since anything that fires on the boundary will move NE.

T-Storms are firing near DDC and El Dorado and just south of the border in OK.

[ShockerFever]

You can kiss any tornadic weather for Wichita goodbye.


I think threads like these before the storms jinxes it. :lol:

Since the boundary is just south of Wichita, Wichita is hardly out of the woods just yet since anything that fires on the boundary will move NE.

T-Storms are firing near DDC and El Dorado and just south of the border in OK.

Everything has been moving east all day. Yes there is a bit a of a northward slant to them. However, once these storms hit the outflow boundary they'll either turn to the east or break down in the "cooler" air and lose a lot of their punch and potential rotation.

Wichita will likely get some type of precipitation, but tornadic storms are going south, literally.

[SB Shock]

You can kiss any tornadic weather for Wichita goodbye.


I think threads like these before the storms jinxes it. :lol:

Since the boundary is just south of Wichita, Wichita is hardly out of the woods just yet since anything that fires on the boundary will move NE.

T-Storms are firing near DDC and El Dorado and just south of the border in OK.

Everything has been moving east all day. Yes there is a bit a of a northward slant to them.

Totally different situation on the convection earlier in the day. This convection was elevated and was cause by jet streak moving across northern kansas and was coupling with the nose of Low Level Jet.

However, once these storms hit the outflow boundary they'll either turn to the east or break down in the "cooler" air and lose a lot of their punch and potential rotation.

The outflow boundary didn't scour out the moisture (i.e. Dewpoints still at 67 in Wichita). CAPE is still 2000 to 3000 still around Wichita. There is mid-level speed max that is moving in that will make up for the lack of heating.

The big question is whether the low level shear near and west of Wichita is going to materialize per the models - but this has been a big question all day.

[ShockerFever]

So how much rain did everybody get? :lol:

The OFB killed it. But the conditions ended up being not that good anyways. I don't think any of the storms that did develop to the west or south had confirmed tornadoes.

Busted.

[SB Shock]

So how much rain did everybody get? :lol:

The OFB killed it. But the conditions ended up being not that good anyways. I don't think any of the storms that did develop to the west or south had confirmed tornadoes.

Busted.

Actually I would disagree. The real killer was the high cloudiness that persisted all day and really made the cap seem much stronger and difficult to break. The OFB timing was about the right time (it moved through peak heating) but the cap was to strong. The Insolation was about 1/3 less than yesterday and 40% less than saturday (350 Ly today, 550 Ly (yesterda) and 610 Ly (saturday)).

Couple other things was that the dry line didn't surge east as much as I think the models were suggesting. So the triple-point was really more near Dodge city than Wichita. Also the upper level support didn't show up.

Most of the T-Storms that developed were east of Wichita where the helicity was much better or west of Wichita (near DDC) at the triple-point.

But that is the way it goes. If the cap is to weak then you get garden variety t-storms by lunch. If the cap is to strong you get a great evening to play softball. If the cap isn't to weak or to strong and the timing of other ingredients comes together then you get an explosive environment. As the NWS would tell you - "Timing is everything"

[BenWSU]

I got everyone all excited for nothing. 8)

Some storms Wednesday but just wind and hailers.

[ShockerFever]

So how much rain did everybody get? :lol:

The OFB killed it. But the conditions ended up being not that good anyways. I don't think any of the storms that did develop to the west or south had confirmed tornadoes.

Busted.

Actually I would disagree. The real killer was the high cloudiness that persisted all day and really made the cap seem much stronger and difficult to break. The OFB timing was about the right time (it moved through peak heating) but the cap was to strong. The Insolation was about 1/3 less than yesterday and 40% less than saturday (350 Ly today, 550 Ly (yesterda) and 610 Ly (saturday)).

Couple other things was that the dry line didn't surge east as much as I think the models were suggesting. So the triple-point was really more near Dodge city than Wichita. Also the upper level support didn't show up.

Most of the T-Storms that developed were east of Wichita where the helicity was much better or west of Wichita (near DDC) at the triple-point.

But that is the way it goes. If the cap is to weak then you get garden variety t-storms by lunch. If the cap is to strong you get a great evening to play softball. If the cap isn't to weak or to strong and the timing of other ingredients comes together then you get an explosive environment. As the NWS would tell you - "Timing is everything"

I would agree on the high cloudiness. Definitely suppressed development. You're right about the bulge too. It never punched east.

Can't really ask for a much better setup in June though. And you're exactly right on the cap. It looked like all the crap that developed became multicelluar to the south and east anyways. It definitely wasn't the most ideal setup.

Glad to know there are other weather freak Shocker fans in here. :good:

[SB Shock]

Can't really ask for a much better setup in June though. And you're exactly right on the cap. It looked like all the crap that developed became multicelluar to the south and east anyways. It definitely wasn't the most ideal setup.

Your exactly right - best setup by far this year, but as the story has been for this year since at least april - the cap hits again.

Glad to know there are other weather freak Shocker fans in here. :good:

Do you have GRLevel 2?

[Capitol Shock]

Total dud...not even a drop of rain in Wichita. For all of our technology we can't predict what the weather is going to do.

Maybe we'll get something today?

[wsushox1]

GRLevel2? pshh.... get GRLevel3. Just kidding I don't have either. Convective outlooks look fair today. Yesterday could have been a big day but there were some flaws that prevented that. Wouldn't be surprised if there is a Severe Thunderstorm Watch Issued. Way to early to tell