Are the polls wrong?

[RoyalShock]

Gallup and New Coke

[SB Shock]

thanks for the link. Very interesting read.

McCain has been campaigning in Penn. - it seems like a waste based on the polls. But there are rumors out there that Obamas internal polling is showing a much different picture out there (I would assume that Republican polls must be showing a similiar thing to get him to spend time there).

I'm still skeptical that this election is close, mainly because I want to believe that most are truly honest and wouldn't manipulate the data.

[C0|dB|00ded]

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_WTA.cfm

It's all over except for the fat lady...


T


...8)

[DUShock]

The only poll that matters is on November 4th.

[rrshock]

The only poll that matters is on November 4th.

You mean the electoral college poll? Because the other one sure doesn't!

I'm sure that the polls that Obama and McCains' camps are taking are showing different than the national polls. I would pay attention to where they are spending time, because that probably means they know something that everyone else doesn't.

[wu_shizzle]

Reviewing the polls printed in The New York Times and The Washington Post in the last month of every presidential election since 1976, I found the polls were never wrong in a friendly way to Republicans. When the polls were wrong, which was often, they overestimated support for the Democrat, usually by about 6 to 10 points.

In 1976, Jimmy Carter narrowly beat Gerald Ford 50.1 percent to 48 percent. And yet, on Sept. 1, Carter led Ford by 15 points. Just weeks before the election, on Oct. 16, 1976, Carter led Ford in the Gallup Poll by 6 percentage points -- down from his 33-point Gallup Poll lead in August.

Reading newspaper coverage of presidential elections in 1980 and 1984, I found myself paralyzed by the fear that Reagan was going to lose.

In 1980, Ronald Reagan beat Carter by nearly 10 points, 51 percent to 41 percent. In a Gallup Poll released days before the election on Oct. 27, it was Carter who led Reagan 45 percent to 42 percent.

In 1984, Reagan walloped Walter Mondale 58.8 percent to 40 percent, -- the largest electoral landslide in U.S. history. But on Oct. 15, The New York Daily News published a poll showing Mondale with only a 4-point deficit to Reagan, 45 percent to 41 percent. A Harris Poll about the same time showed Reagan with only a 9-point lead. The Oct. 19 New York Times/CBS News Poll had Mr. Reagan ahead of Mondale by 13 points. All these polls underestimated Reagan's actual margin of victory by 6 to 15 points.

In 1988, George H.W. Bush beat Michael Dukakis by a whopping 53.4 percent to 45.6 percent. A New York Times/CBS News Poll on Oct. 5 had Bush leading the Greek homunculus by a statistically insignificant 2 points -- 45 percent to 43 percent. (For the kids out there: Before it became a clearinghouse for anti-Bush conspiracy theories, CBS News was considered a credible journalistic entity.)

A week later -- or one tank ride later, depending on who's telling the story -- on Oct. 13, Bush was leading Dukakis in The New York Times Poll by a mere 5 points.

Admittedly, a 3- to 6-point error is not as crazily wrong as the 6- to 15-point error in 1984. But it's striking that even small "margin of error" mistakes never seem to benefit Republicans.

[ABC]

There are two possible explanations for this. Either the polls are very wrong or that Republicans close strong and that undecideds break to the Republicans. Either are possible.

Even in 1996, Dole was losing by 15-18 points in the last polls and the polls said Republicans were going to lose the House. The R's held the House and Dole lost by 8.4%.

The same thing happened with Brownback and Docking here in Kansas in 1996. It was a 45-45 percent race on the eve of the election and Brownback won by more than 10%.

In 2002, Seblius was beating Shallenburger by 15% in the polls by won by only 7% on the actual election day.

[KBShocker]

It's more of the same people. The liberals are controlling the polls and trying to deceive everybody to their advantage. The party of lie, cheat, and steal knows how to fool everyone if we don't pay attention. They should replace the donkey with a snake.

[shocrates]

Another great read:

http://www.americanthinker.com/2008/10/obama_the_lightworker.html

[wxkid23]

I still believe this will be a closer race than many believe on election day. The only poll that matters is the final one. Hopefully some people come to their senses and don't vote for BHO.