Well that was a big one

[Cdizzle]

I'm confused as to why these earthquakes have started around here AFTER the shuttle program was ended. Perhaps they have a new way of doing it.

[Aargh]

There's a fault. Faults eventually shift, causing quakes. It seems to me that wastewater disposal is lubricating the fault, making it easier for the two sides to slip.

In that scenario, the wastewater disposal is causing a lot of little slips, which minimizes the possibility of a big slip and major quake, like the New Madrid quake in the early 1800's.

We don't like the quakes and the damage they're causing. The damage is mainly minor. Facing work is falling, some cracks in walls are happening. By eliminating the activites that are causing the relatively small quakes, we may be setting up for a building-toppling quake some time in the future. That future might be 100,000 years, or it might be next year, but those faults want to slip. When faults want to sli, it's pretty much inevitable that they will.

Lubricating the faults, so the sides can slip more easily is the best possible way to prevent high-magnitude quakes. I'm not certain that preventing the small quakes is the best option if you look long-term.

[Cdizzle]

I was made uncomfortable by the number of times "lubricating" was used in the previous post.

[WstateU]

I was made uncomfortable by the number of times "lubricating" was used in the previous post.

I was made "uncomfortable" by the thread title, "Well that was a big one".

[wufan]

There's a fault. Faults eventually shift, causing quakes. It seems to me that wastewater disposal is lubricating the fault, making it easier for the two sides to slip.

In that scenario, the wastewater disposal is causing a lot of little slips, which minimizes the possibility of a big slip and major quake, like the New Madrid quake in the early 1800's.

We don't like the quakes and the damage they're causing. The damage is mainly minor. Facing work is falling, some cracks in walls are happening. By eliminating the activites that are causing the relatively small quakes, we may be setting up for a building-toppling quake some time in the future. That future might be 100,000 years, or it might be next year, but those faults want to slip. When faults want to sli, it's pretty much inevitable that they will.

Lubricating the faults, so the sides can slip more easily is the best possible way to prevent high-magnitude quakes. I'm not certain that preventing the small quakes is the best option if you look long-term.

I hadn't heard this proposed before. I'm no sizmologist, but it's a plausible take to my untrained mind.

[The Mad Hatter]

There's a fault. Faults eventually shift, causing quakes. It seems to me that wastewater disposal is lubricating the fault, making it easier for the two sides to slip.

In that scenario, the wastewater disposal is causing a lot of little slips, which minimizes the possibility of a big slip and major quake, like the New Madrid quake in the early 1800's.

We don't like the quakes and the damage they're causing. The damage is mainly minor. Facing work is falling, some cracks in walls are happening. By eliminating the activites that are causing the relatively small quakes, we may be setting up for a building-toppling quake some time in the future. That future might be 100,000 years, or it might be next year, but those faults want to slip. When faults want to sli, it's pretty much inevitable that they will.

Lubricating the faults, so the sides can slip more easily is the best possible way to prevent high-magnitude quakes. I'm not certain that preventing the small quakes is the best option if you look long-term.

As I understand it, while wastewater injection has been tied to causing earthquakes, the opposite would more likely be true in terms of changing the risk of a huge quake since whatever pressure is being released by the small quakes is overwhelmed by the fact that you have added way more pressure to the system as well the fact that pressure released from one fault can shift the geology to put additional pressure on another fault. From the US Geological Survey:

FICTION: You can prevent large earthquakes by making lots of small ones, or by “lubricating” the fault with water.

Seismologists have observed that for every magnitude 6 earthquake there are about 10 of magnitude 5, 100 of magnitude 4, 1,000 of magnitude 3, and so forth as the events get smaller and smaller. This sounds like a lot of small earthquakes, but there are never enough small ones to eliminate the occasional large event. It would take 32 magnitude 5's, 1000 magnitude 4's, OR 32,000 magnitude 3's to equal the energy of one magnitude 6 event. So, even though we always record many more small events than large ones, there are far too few to eliminate the need for the occasional large earthquake.

As for “lubricating” faults with water or some other substance, if anything, this would have the opposite effect. Injecting high-pressure fluids deep into the ground is known to be able to trigger earthquakes—to cause them to occur sooner than would have been the case without the injection. This would be a dangerous pursuit in any populated area, as one might trigger a damaging earthquake.

From Columbia University:

A surge in U.S. energy production in the last decade or so has sparked what appears to be a rise in small to mid-sized earthquakes in the United States. Large amounts of water are used both to crack open rocks to release natural gas through hydrofracking, and to coax oil and gas from underground wells using conventional techniques. After the gas and oil have been extracted, the brine and chemical-laced water must be disposed of, and is often pumped back underground elsewhere, sometimes causing earthquakes.

"These passing seismic waves are like a stress test," said study coauthor Heather Savage, a geophysicist at Lamont-Doherty. "If the number of small earthquakes increases, it could indicate that faults are becoming critically stressed and might soon host a larger earthquake."

The 2010 magnitude 8.8 Chile quake, which killed more than 500 people, sent surface waves rippling across the planet, triggering a magnitude 4.1 quake near Prague 16 hours later, the study says. The activity near Prague continued until the magnitude 5.7 quake on Nov. 6, 2011 that destroyed 14 homes and injured two people. A study earlier this year led by seismologist Katie Keranen, also a coauthor of the new study, now at Cornell University, found that the first rupture occurred less than 650 feet away from active injection wells. In April 2012, a magnitude 8.6 earthquake off Sumatra triggered another swarm of earthquakes in the same place.The pumping of fluid into the field continues to this day, along with a pattern of small quakes.

[shock]

I was made uncomfortable by the number of times "lubricating" was used in the previous post.

The cracks are moist

[Aargh]

The cracks are moist

Not always, but even considering the citation from the USGS, I will stand by my previous hypothesis that the friction is substantially reduced when the cracks have been moistened.

With all due respect given to the USGS and Columbia University citations, I will stipulate that natural reductions in the friction are superior to any artificial lubrication of the cracks.

[The Mad Hatter]

[jdshock]

At least in the xkcd the person that was wrong tried to explain their way out of it. They didn't just say "in the face of opposing evidence from reputable sources, I choose not to believe with no further clarification. My common sense understanding seems more logical."

[MoValley John]

I just don't get it.

[shock]

Not always, but even considering the citation from the USGS, I will stand by my previous hypothesis that the friction is substantially reduced when the cracks have been moistened.

With all due respect given to the USGS and Columbia University citations, I will stipulate that natural reductions in the friction are superior to any artificial lubrication of the cracks.

i have 4 cousins and an uncle that are petroleum engineers and they have told me time and time again exactly what you have said. I don't disagree. I just saw an opportunity for innuendo.

[SHOCKvalue]

There's certainly an undeniable correlation between the wastewater injection wells and earthquakes; however, causation... ?

The wells are several hundred/thousand feet deep; the earthquakes are occurring several miles deep. Seems to be a logical disconnect there, but I'm not a geologist.

[Aargh]

i have 4 cousins and an uncle that are petroleum engineers and they have told me time and time again exactly what you have said. I don't disagree. I just saw an opportunity for innuendo.

Did you think I was still talking about earthquakes?

[MoValley John]

KY His & Hers works pretty well. As far as friction goes.

Been married a long time, can only confirm lubrication and friction along one of two fault lines.