Severe Weather 2016 - First Blood

[Cdizzle]

So, and correct me if I'm wrong, but you're saying that what I need to do is go outside and say nice things to all the Cumulus clouds I can find to try to make them happier?

[ShockerFever]

wsushox, what do you think about the dry line positioning? It's already knocking on the door of Hutchinson and western Kingman county. Do you think it'll stall or retreat at all?

We're getting a SSW component to the winds now at the surface, and the 850s currently also have a westerly component. Are those gonna back? Otherwise, it looks like more of a hail threat potentially east of the turnpike?

[wsushox1]

wsushox, what do you think about the dry line positioning? It's already knocking on the door of Hutchinson and western Kingman county. Do you think it'll stall or retreat at all?

We're getting a SSW component to the winds now at the surface, and the 850s currently also have a westerly component. Are those gonna back? Otherwise, it looks like more of a hail threat potentially east of the turnpike?

The issue is that there are almost three separate circulations at the surface. The 1000mb low in central KS is really shoving the dryline east. If that low continues to stay there, and deepen, like some models show. Then yes, I could see the dryline passing wichita in the next 2-3 hours.



Edit: Well apparently the SPC doesn't agree because they kept their risk area almost identical. Not sure I agree, but oh well.

[wsushox1]

Also, here is the link to the one minute visible satellite for today. It's really awesome!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-west_goes-east/goes-14_1_minute_visible_sector_02&width=1020&height=720&number_of_images_to_display=60&loop_speed_ms=80

[WuDrWu]

That is very cool.

[ShockBand]

Does the dryline passing through Wichita early mean the storms will likely be east of us (yes, east of turnpike?)

[Kung Wu]

Also, here is the link to the one minute visible satellite for today. It's really awesome!

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/rams...op_speed_ms=80

Whoa! I totally see a baby goat slowly morphing into a woman's posterior.

[wsushox1]

Does the dryline passing through Wichita early mean the storms will likely be east of us (yes, east of turnpike?)

yes.

[Cdizzle]

Does the dryline passing through Wichita early mean the storms will likely be east of us (yes, east of turnpike?)

yes.

So, I can put my non-brown pants back on?

[DanielBryan]

yes.

Dry line is in medicine lodge to Pratt. Quit trying to mess with me!

[ShockerFever]

Dry line is in medicine lodge to Pratt. Quit trying to mess with me!

DOFO makes an appearance. Well we're officially not getting a drop.

[SB Shock]

Dry line is in medicine lodge to Pratt. Quit trying to mess with me!

It well past medicine lodge - dewpoint there at 41. Harper has dropped to 60 dewpoint, Wichita at 67. Dry line looks to be passing through Cheney/Andale at moment.

[wsushox1]

It well past medicine lodge - dewpoint there at 41. Harper has dropped to 60 dewpoint, Wichita at 67. Dry line looks to be passing through Cheney/Andale at moment.

Radar almost makes it look like it's near Goddard to Conway Springs at the moment.

[WuDrWu]

Radar almost makes it look like it's near Goddard to Conway Springs at the moment.

Professional thoughts at this point, @wsushox1:?

[Kung Wu]

What is the percent chance of rain between 4:00pm and 6:00pm (in Wichita)?