Severe Weather 2016 - First Blood

[wsushox1]

Looking more like a gorilla hail event now. Set-up has gotten quite a bit less advantageous for widespread tornado outbreak over the past few days of model runs.

[wsushox1]

SPC backs down from Violent Tornados (now mentions just strong) and mentions GIANT hail.

STRONG /POTENTIALLY LONG-TRACK/ TORNADOES...VERY LARGE
/PERHAPS GIANT/ HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. AFOREMENTIONED
COVERAGE CONCERNS WILL PRECLUDE A HIGH RISK AT THIS TIME.

[ShockerFever]

SPC backs down from Violent Tornados (now mentions just strong) and mentions GIANT hail.

When did they mention violent tornadoes previously? I don't think the SPC ever mentioned that.

They upgraded to a Day 2 moderate risk and still think long-track tornadoes are in play. The cap seems to be a problem, particularly down further south in TX/OK, but still could break, especially towards evening when upper level support ejects in. That appears to be the biggest issue. The low-level shear could be better but the huge CAPE forecasts could compensate for that.

A Day 2 Moderate Risk is no thing to scoff at, that's for sure.

[Cdizzle]

I don't understand all the mumbo-jumbo. Somebody just tell me when to poop myself.

[wsushox1]

When did they mention violent tornadoes previously? I don't think the SPC ever mentioned that.

They upgraded to a Day 2 moderate risk and still think long-track tornadoes are in play. The cap seems to be a problem, particularly down further south in TX/OK, but still could break, especially towards evening when upper level support ejects in. That appears to be the biggest issue. The low-level shear could be better but the huge CAPE forecasts could compensate for that.

A Day 2 Moderate Risk is no thing to scoff at, that's for sure.

Maybe it was the ICT forecast discussion. I forget, but either ICT or SPC mentioned violent tornados on Tuesday.

[SHOCKvalue]

I don't understand all the mumbo-jumbo. Somebody just tell me when to poop myself.

For me it just needs to be broken down into two types of weather days: "all-clear" days, and "keep yer sh!t in a garage" days.

[ShockdaWorld]

So Is tomorrow more likely to be dangerously ugly, or more likely to be as bad as yesterday was In Wichita?

[SB Shock]

So Is tomorrow more likely to be dangerously ugly, or more likely to be as bad as yesterday was In Wichita?

I would not allow yesterday event to affect your analysis of tomorrow. Latest SPC update for tomorrow is still Moderate (45% w/significant severe) - if that holds true for later updates fortomorrow that would mean there could be some HIGH risk areas. So it going to be "dangerously ugly" for somebody.

The limiting factor seems to be low level flow predicted for tomorrow. The other factor (for where the storms will impact) will be where the dry line actually sets up.

[Cdizzle]

So, I should wear my brown pants tomorrow, just to be safe?

[SB Shock]

So, I should wear my brown pants tomorrow, just to be safe?

Only if you pooped yourself today.

[wsushox1]

Somewhere in Kansas is going to see 4-6inch hail....maybe larger in some areas. Latest high res model for tomorrow afternoon has CAPE of 6950 j/kg at the surface.

Goliath hail

[Shocker85]

So, let me get this straight ... when SB, wsushox1 and Fever get a woodie ... good means bad and bad means good for all the rest of us storm-fearing pu$$ies?

Do I have that right?

[ShockTalk]

Somewhere in Kansas is going to see 4-6inch hail....maybe larger in some areas. Latest high res model for tomorrow afternoon has CAPE of 6950 j/kg at the surface.

Goliath hail

F**k you!!

I know, I know, you're just the messenger.

[MoValley John]

What does Frankie say?

[wayreth21]

I realize that many don't want to see it. But I really really really want to see widespread hail and tornadoes. It has been far too long for either in the Wichita area.