Severe Weather 2016 - First Blood

[wsushox1]

Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night look to be very bumpy. The most recent model runs keep lifting the warmfront a little further north which would open up ICT/I-35 Corridor for an interesting afternoon.

One of the biggest issues is if the upper level support will arrive in time to truly maximize the instability and extreme lift that will be present.

[wsushox1]

The most recent model runs scream April 14, 2012 to me, except as I mentioned previously, the upper level support doesn't arrive as early as it could. If the upper level support moves just a hair faster, Tuesday will most certainly be a high risk day throughout KS/OK.

Remember with April 14, 2012 we had Tornado warnings at 11AM. Don't see that happening on this day, but a STRONG nocturnal tornado will likely exist with this day. As, conceptually the LLJ and and surface winds should continue to become more favorable as the evening goes on.

[ShockerFever]

Great analysis wsushox. Not to be nitpicky, but that was 2012.

I'm gonna hold back on my thoughts at the moment as we're still 3 days out and plenty of things can and will change. In general though, there are classic features coming together. And yes the slight delay of the ejection of the jet streak could be a little problematic.

[wsushox1]

Great analysis wsushox. Not to be nitpicky, but that was 2012.

I'm gonna hold back on my thoughts at the moment as we're still 3 days out and plenty of things can and will change. In general though, there are classic features coming together. And yes the slight delay of the ejection of the jet streak could be a little problematic.

Thanks for the catch!

[SB Shock]

Sunday may have a little action possibly (except moisture looks suspect) but here is Map from Mike Smith blog of the risks for sunday.

[SB Shock]

SPC says tornado watch for central/sc ks likely (80%)

[SB Shock]

SPC says tornado watch for central/sc ks likely (80%)

should correct to say a WATCH (not necessarily a tornado), but there will be chance some chance for tornadoes.

[wsushox1]

should correct to say a WATCH (not necessarily a tornado), but there will be chance some chance for tornadoes.

Today could be a sneaky day out there.

[SB Shock]

Today could be a sneaky day out there.

are you out chasing?

[wsushox1]

are you out chasing?

Nah, I have a Research Presentation tomorrow for school so I need to finish that up. LCL's are a little high, be interesting to see if they can drop in a local storm environment. Shear is pretty decent.

[SB Shock]

[Kung Wu]

Just a liiiiitle more South ...

[MoValley John]

The wind kicked up, there was large hail, thunder and foreboding skies. Then a witch flew through my front door!

I was mistaken, there was some rain and lightning, then my mother in law dropped by.

[Kung Wu]

The wind kicked up, there was large hail, thunder and foreboding skies. Then a witch flew through my front door!

I was mistaken, there was some rain and lightning, then my mother in law dropped by.

Makers Mark!

[MoValley John]

Makers Mark!

She smelt of cheap wine, Ben Gay, and an untreated, festering yeast infection.