TOM BRADY

[RoyalShock]

I can't wait for the study to find out if the $1 million fine and whatever indirect loss of revenue they experience from not having Brady for a few games, was more or less than the money they save for not paying Brady during his suspension.

[jazztrane]

Saw this on Arrowhead Pride this morning, too good not to share:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xT9pygVQwgk

Warning, this song will be stuck in your head!! :)

[WstateU]

Saw this on Arrowhead Pride this morning, too good not to share:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xT9pygVQwgk

Warning, this song will be stuck in your head!! :)

[ShockdaWorld]

Saw this on Arrowhead Pride this morning, too good not to share:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xT9pygVQwgk

Warning, this song will be stuck in your head!! :)

HAHAHA!!! I wouldn't be caught dead on Arrowhead Pride, but this is a GREAT find. Co-workers are wondering why I'm in my office by myself laughing.

[pinstripers]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuGKeqKUoeA

[shocka khan]

I think that the problem for the NFL, much like their problem with how they handled the domestic abuse punishments, is that they spent years giving slaps on the wrists to the Patriots in exchange for Super Bowl Championships, and when it finally dawns on them that these pattern of behavior was actually going to affect perceptions of the integrity of the game, they give a disproportionately large penalty for what is no worse (and maybe far less important) than the long string of things that the NFL gave no penalty or comparatively small penalty to the Patriots over.

Disproportionately large? ROFLMAO! Pretty funny stuff there. Violate the substance abuse policy (non-steroids) and you'll get 4 games at a minimum after the first time, based on what I've seen through the years. If it's steroids, it's an automatic suspension, according to what I just read on Bleacher Report.

So how many times did Brady deflate balls? Was it 20 or 30 or 40? More? Who knows.

What was the result of Brady deflating the balls? As someone pointed out, Nate Silver did some data analytics and proved that there was something (probably deflation of the balls) that caused the Patriots to have so few fumbles it was obvious they were cheating. So how many fumbles were prevented because Brady was cheating and how many losses were averted? Would the level of cheating rise to a level that would have prevented the Patriots from making the playoffs? Who knows.

I agree with the poster who said they should have suspended Brady for 8 games. That's assuming that the NFL is serious about cracking down on cheating. The Patriots should be in a position where they will need to get lucky to get into the playoffs or it's not really a punishment at all.

If the NFL doesn't want to get serious about this, I'm OK with it, just don't tell me you're getting serious and not do anything (or much of anything) at all. After Brady appeals and gets his suspension reduced by half, after Robert Kraft picks up the change in his sofa and pays the million dollar fine and after the Patriots lose a first and fourth round draft picks, it does not look like there's much punishment here at all.

People who don't agree are just projecting their drama. If the suspension is cut in half, the Pats will, in all probability, make the playoffs this season and the punishment then becomes a non-punishment.

[Kung Wu]

I wonder why no opposing team's defensive player that intercepted one of Tom's passes mentioned anything about the ball being a little flat?

[ShockerEngineer]

I wonder why no opposing team's defensive player that intercepted one of Tom's passes mentioned anything about the ball being a little flat?

I don't have a source to link, but I thought I recalled this pretty much happening at some point.

[jazztrane]

That's what finally brought it to light with the Colts, but I also heard the Colts complained to the NFL prior to the playoff game, so who knows. You would think if this had been going on for years, with all the players leaving NE for other teams, something would have been said sooner.

Its very hard to say this affected the outcomes or cut down on fumbles-was the fumble data per carry, or in total? It seems like for several years the Pats hardly ran the ball. You could also go back and see if any Brady passes were just underthrown, and would they have been completions had the ball cut through the air just a little more?

I still say the NFL needs to maintain full control of the balls, same balls for both teams, or let the teams continue to doctor them how they want, including psi.

[shocka khan]

I wonder why no opposing team's defensive player that intercepted one of Tom's passes mentioned anything about the ball being a little flat?

IIRC the guy from the Colts who intercepted the pass at the end of the first half of the super bowl complained to the officials and that's what started it all.

[The Mad Hatter]

Disproportionately large? ROFLMAO! Pretty funny stuff there. Violate the substance abuse policy (non-steroids) and you'll get 4 games at a minimum after the first time, based on what I've seen through the years. If it's steroids, it's an automatic suspension, according to what I just read on Bleacher Report.

So how many times did Brady deflate balls? Was it 20 or 30 or 40? More? Who knows.

What was the result of Brady deflating the balls? As someone pointed out, Nate Silver did some data analytics and proved that there was something (probably deflation of the balls) that caused the Patriots to have so few fumbles it was obvious they were cheating. So how many fumbles were prevented because Brady was cheating and how many losses were averted? Would the level of cheating rise to a level that would have prevented the Patriots from making the playoffs? Who knows.

I agree with the poster who said they should have suspended Brady for 8 games. That's assuming that the NFL is serious about cracking down on cheating. The Patriots should be in a position where they will need to get lucky to get into the playoffs or it's not really a punishment at all.

If the NFL doesn't want to get serious about this, I'm OK with it, just don't tell me you're getting serious and not do anything (or much of anything) at all. After Brady appeals and gets his suspension reduced by half, after Robert Kraft picks up the change in his sofa and pays the million dollar fine and after the Patriots lose a first and fourth round draft picks, it does not look like there's much punishment here at all.

People who don't agree are just projecting their drama. If the suspension is cut in half, the Pats will, in all probability, make the playoffs this season and the punishment then becomes a non-punishment.

I think you pretty much missed my point entirely.

First, the disproportionate comment was in relation to the previous penalties levied against New England, not against a reasonable standard. So yes, compared to spying on other teams, for instance, this was given a disproportionately larger penalty.

In fact, I agree with you that I wish the Patriots would get hit even harder than they have been. They have consistently cheated and I wish their Super Bowls were taken, quite frankly.

My point is that the League's longstanding refusal to punish the Patriot's (and the apparent destruction of evidence in Spy Gate), puts them in a dubious legal position to suddenly "get serious," because the penalties don't line up with the precedent the NFL set for itself.

In other words, just as I was not opposed to big penalties for domestic violence, the NFL has a problem of not taking an issue seriously for years on end then suddenly trying to make up for it in one fell swoop when the PR starts really turning on them. That is simply no way to run an organization.

If the NFL had just truly punished New England for their earlier cheating they wouldn't be in this mess right now. Even if they had just gone so far as to not DESTROY THE EVIDENCE, they could probably leverage larger penalties on the basis of a pattern of behavior. Unfortunately, over a decade of bad decisions puts the league in a dubious legal position when the suddenly try to reverse course and take the moral high ground.

[Kung Wu]

Assuming the fumble data is the smoking gun, and interceptions/receptions doesn't really shed any new light into the controversy, isn't it _possible_ that a running back is the one that was having the balls deflated, and they are focusing on the wrong player? Maybe not likely -- but isn't it possible?

[The Mad Hatter]

Assuming the fumble data is the smoking gun, and interceptions/receptions doesn't really shed any new light into the controversy, isn't it _possible_ that a running back is the one that was having the balls deflated, and they are focusing on the wrong player? Maybe not likely -- but isn't it possible?

While in a general sense, there are a lot of things that are unlikely but possible, there are several factors that reduce the likelihood to the point that it is a scenario that isn't reasonable to consider (just like it is possible that the Illuminati deflated the balls). Here are the factors I see as decisive:

1. Brady has been on the public record specifically stating his preference for a ball with a lower psi than allowed by NFL rules.

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24980832/tom-brady-in-2011-i-like-deflated-footballs

2. Nate Silver didn't do the stat analysis, it was done by a guy named Warren Sharp. In fact, Silver's Five Thirty Eight blog rebutts those claims, meaning the fumble data shouldn't necessarily take priority over Brady's stated preference for deflated balls. http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/y...ical-analyses/

Even if the fumble data is true and attributable to the deflated footballs,

3. Sharp's data goes back to 2010. In that time, New England has had a rotating door at running back, but consistency at quarterback. If you were going to isolate one player responsible over that whole time, Brady makes the most sense.

4. While running backs certainly benefit from lower fumble numbers, there is actually a really good case that a QB benefits the most from the added grip of a deflated ball. These numbers are a little old (2010), but still useful.

The percentage of times fumbles occur:
All plays: 1.67%
Running plays: 1.16%
Passing plays: 2.04%
Sacks: 18.0% (and 56% all passing play fumbles are from sacks)

http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2010/01/fumble-rates-by-play-type.html?m=1

In other words, sacks cause a disproportionately high rate of fumbles, so quarterbacks are particular beneficiaries of any factor that reduces fumbles. In the case of ball deflation, this seems particularly to be the case because a QB is far more likely to be sacked while holding the ball solely in his hand instead of tucked, so a deflated ball and improves grip in the hand is very helpful in avoiding fumbles during a sack.

[Kung Wu]

In other words, sacks cause a disproportionately high rate of fumbles, so quarterbacks are particular beneficiaries of any factor that reduces fumbles. In the case of ball deflation, this seems particularly to be the case because a QB is far more likely to be sacked while holding the ball solely in his hand instead of tucked, so a deflated ball and improves grip in the hand is very helpful in avoiding fumbles during a sack.

Wow, nice analysis and review!

Now here's my final thought on Deflategate, and then I am going to let it go.

It's common for pressures at home to bleed over into the workplace. Well when you are a premier athlete with a wife that has the most extreme of high standards, the pressure can make you snap and, yes, cheat. With all the feminist posts on Shockernet lately, I think our posters are just too afraid to say what they are really thinking: Maybe Gisele was putting overbearing pressure on Tom to succeed?

She has habits, she's expensive, and she demands perfection.

Now I don't know anything about Gisele Bündchen, but I'll bet you dimes to a dollar that she probably partakes in expensive exotic travels aboard private airplanes to distant tropical "paradise" islands just to model a few bikinis! So to get but a glimpse of the amount of pressure that Brady must be under at home, I think it would really clear things up for Shockernetters on the fence about this issue, if some supporting photographic evidence of Gisele in a bikini were to surface. So the real question is ... does that evidence exist?

Not that this would excuse Brady for cheating, but it would at least provide some context so that we can all heal and move forward.

[ShockdaWorld]

Wow, nice analysis and review!

Now here's my final thought on Deflategate, and then I am going to let it go.

It's common for pressures at home to bleed over into the workplace. Well when you are a premier athlete with a wife that has the most extreme of high standards, the pressure can make you snap and, yes, cheat. With all the feminist posts on Shockernet lately, I think our posters are just too afraid to say what they are really thinking: Maybe Gisele was putting overbearing pressure on Tom to succeed?

She has habits, she's expensive, and she demands perfection.

Now I don't know anything about Gisele Bündchen, but I'll bet you dimes to a dollar that she probably partakes in expensive exotic travels aboard private airplanes to distant tropical "paradise" islands just to model a few bikinis! So to get but a glimpse of the amount of pressure that Brady must be under at home, I think it would really clear things up for Shockernetters on the fence about this issue, if some supporting photographic evidence of Gisele in a bikini were to surface. So the real question is ... does that evidence exist?

Not that this would excuse Brady for cheating, but it would at least provide some context so that we can all heal and move forward.

Most compelling argument EVER.