Major League Baseball - Release the Kraken

[shoxilla]

Today, a one Mr. Alex Rodriguez hit a home run to pass Willie Mays on baseball's all-time home run list. This is, to be sure, Sports Blasphemy. Baseball has been and always will be a numbers game. How else to determine a Hall of Fame player? Given the obvious effect of PEDs with regards to ultra-modern day statistics, I would propose that these statistics be modified by applying a new factor (dedicated to the preeminent players of this period namely McGuire, Sosa, and Bonds) to their final HR totals arriving at a fair number more accurately reflecting their true ability. I, to my regret, am not a genius or have not the mathematical awareness to deduce a formula that would resolve this predicament. My contribution, however, may be to come up with the acronym for this adjustment.

Maybe more enlightened ShockerNetters can tell the world, using the MCSOBO coefficient, how many HR's Barry or Sammy or Alex would've gotten under normal circumstances?

[wsushox1]

Today, a one Mr. Alex Rodriguez hit a home run to pass Willie Mays on baseball's all-time home run list. This is, to be sure, Sports Blasphemy. Baseball has been and always will be a numbers game. How else to determine a Hall of Fame player? Given the obvious effect of PEDs with regards to ultra-modern day statistics, I would propose that these statistics be modified by applying a new factor (dedicated to the preeminent players of this period namely McGuire, Sosa, and Bonds) to their final HR totals arriving at a fair number more accurately reflecting their true ability. I, to my regret, am not a genius or have not the mathematical awareness to deduce a formula that would resolve this predicament. My contribution, however, may be to come up with the acronym for this adjustment.

Maybe more enlightened ShockerNetters can tell the world, using the MCSOBO coefficient, how many HR's Barry or Sammy or Alex would've gotten under normal circumstances?

This would be a rather easy statistical simulation for someone like Ken Pomery or Nate Silver to do, or any Bayesian and Stochastic statitician.

I believe it's been done and Barry Bonds would still be in the HoF.

[wsushox1]

Maybe I'll throw something together after I am done with finals.

[wufan]

Rodriguez was suspended and missed an entire season. That surely impacted his career numbers.

[WuShock16]

A-Rod is a jackass. Barry Bonds was king of the jackasses.

That all said, if suspected steroids users are kept out of the Hall of Fame because of cheating, when will Whitey Ford and Gaylord Perry be kicked out of Cooperstown? Those guys notoriously doctored baseballs, which is CHEATING. Hell, Perry wrote a book about it. "ME AND MY SPITTER." Could you imagine the outcry of Roger Clemens writing "Me and My Pills/Syringe?"

[RoyalShock]

A-Rod is a jackass. Barry Bonds was king of the jackasses.

That all said, if suspected steroids users are kept out of the Hall of Fame because of cheating, when will Whitey Ford and Gaylord Perry be kicked out of Cooperstown? Those guys notoriously doctored baseballs, which is CHEATING. Hell, Perry wrote a book about it. "ME AND MY SPITTER." Could you imagine the outcry of Roger Clemens writing "Me and My Pills/Syringe?"

Serious question: Has there ever been any proof that spitting on a ball had any appreciable effect on the movement of a pitched ball?

As for the "steroids modifier", I think two main factors would need to be considered: 1. How many additional games would have been missed during an injury if not for steroids (which quickens recovery time and may even allow players to play through an injury), and 2. How much further did a ball travel as a result of PEDs (and how far back have they logged homerun distance?).

My contention is that neither factor can be calculated and applied with even remote accuracy, assuming the data is even available. Any other modifiers are just guesses based on performance before or after suspected use. I'm sure people have tried to do this, but personally I wouldn't trust the accuracy of the method.

[WuShock16]

Serious question: Has there ever been any proof that spitting on a ball had any appreciable effect on the movement of a pitched ball?

I am not knowledgeable enough about the physics of a baseball's movement from a spitter, but it wasn't Perry's only trick. From his Wikipedia page:

Perry claims he was taught the spitball in 1964 by pitcher Bob Shaw. Perry had a reputation throughout his career for doctoring baseballs, and was inspected on the mound by umpires and monitored closely by opposing teams.^[5] On August 23, 1982, he was ejected from a game against the Boston Red Sox for doctoring the ball, and given a 10-day suspension.

Perry reportedly approached the makers of Vaseline about endorsing the product and was allegedly rebuffed with a one-line postcard reading, "We soothe babies' backsides, not baseballs." Former manager Gene Mauch famously quipped "He should be in the Hall of Fame with a tube of K-Y Jelly attached to his plaque."^[6]



Gene Tenace, who caught Gaylord Perry when they played for the San Diego Padres, said: "I can remember a couple of occasions when I couldn't throw the ball back to him because it was so greasy that it slipped out of my hands. I just walked out to the mound and flipped the ball back to him."^[7]


Perry used his reputation to psyche out the hitters as well. As he looked in to his catcher for the pitch selection, Perry would touch various parts of his head, such as his eyebrows and his cap. In this manner, he may or may not have been applying a foreign substance to the ball on any particular pitch. Reggie Jackson was so upset after striking out against Perry one time that Jackson was ejected from the game. Jackson returned from the dugout with a container of Gatorade, splashing Gatorade onto the field while yelling at the umpire that Perry should be allowed to use the Gatorade on the baseball.


The spitball was not his only method for upsetting batters. Sports Illustrated* 's Joe Posnanski wrote of Perry, "My favorite trick pitch of his was the old Puffball, where he would load up on rosin so that a puff of white smoke would release while he threw his pitches. This was made illegal somewhere along the way (because of Perry, of course), but it’s so awesome — it’s like the sort of thing one of the villains on the old Batman TV show would do."^[8]

[wufan]

Serious question: Has there ever been any proof that spitting on a ball had any appreciable effect on the movement of a pitched ball?

As for the "steroids modifier", I think two main factors would need to be considered: 1. How many additional games would have been missed during an injury if not for steroids (which quickens recovery time and may even allow players to play through an injury), and 2. How much further did a ball travel as a result of PEDs (and how far back have they logged homerun distance?).

My contention is that neither factor can be calculated and applied with even remote accuracy, assuming the data is even available. Any other modifiers are just guesses based on performance before or after suspected use. I'm sure people have tried to do this, but personally I wouldn't trust the accuracy of the method.

Steroids help muscle strains and pulls, but they can also cause tendon and ligament tears, leading to injury.

[shoxilla]

Bonds to sue MLB, hahahahahahah this should be fun.