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Of course this post is written during the hottest, dryest spell of the spring/summer so far...but it will still hold true even after this week.
Well the drought has eased across SC KS, but how much? How do we go about quantifying the impacts of a drought? (afterall that is what causes us to notice drought). It's a tough question, and something I've read a little bit about in the past year, and there is still really no simple answer. As with alot of things - basketball included - you have to look at a plethora of statistics, readings, measurements, etc., etc., in order to be able to determine it.
First off, start off simple. The things that are the main causes drought Temperature, and Precipitation.
Starting off with 90 days departure from normal Precipitation in Inches.
and then with Average Daily Temperature (degrees Fahrenheit) though this time on a Monthly Time Scale - for whatever reason 90days/3 month is not available.
Analysis: As you can see it has still been a little bit below average precipitation wise across most of KS. However, most of Eastern KS has been slightly below average with temperatures. This will cause evapotranspiration rates to decrease. So it is possible, that even with the slightly below average precipitation, the cooler temperatures have caused a situation in which the effect on the ecosystem is similar to if we had average precipitation. Also, the nature of the rains we have gotten this year - especially early on - have been kind of the "slow soaking large scale rain storms" type, that had several days of cloudy weather afterwards. The cloudy weather after a rain will significantly increase the amount of water that is absorbed into the ground just due to the fact that the atmosphere is not going to be taking that moisture back up. So that is another plus towards lessening the drought.
Moving on to the two impacts of drought that are most noticeable in our lives : Surface Water Storage and Plant Life.
First, Water Storage:
OBS: SC KS is still well below normal, Eastern KS is Normal to Above-Normal and Western KS is well, you know how it is out there right now.
Cheney Lake Level:
As many of you know, Cheney Lakes Watershed received around 6 inches of rain on the 31st? of May that caused Cheney to go up around 1.8 feet.
El Dorado Lake:
El Dorado Lake's level has been pretty unresponsive to any rain received this year, due to many factors. First and most importantly, there are a lot of watershed lakes that have overflow outflow into the the creeks that feed the lake. These are not full and overflowing yet. Also, the El Dorado watershed has not received enough rain in a short timespan, like Cheney has, to induce run-off. Should the watersheds north of the Lake fill up, the lake has been known to go up one foot per inch of rain the inflow of the lake has.
Arkansas River: This is from a stream guage in Wichita measured in Cubic Foot Per Second (CFS). The yellow triangles are the median daily CFS rate.
So as you might have known, some of the larger bodies of water around are still low, and look to stay that way for a little bit. However, a lot of cattle ponds are getting full on ranches/pastures here in Butler County and small streams are looking fairly good as well. Gota get the small systems full before the larger systems fill up.
Next plant life.
Observations: My dad who grew up on a wheat farm in Otis, KS says that this is the best our neighbors wheat crop has ever looked. However, that is apparently not the case for a large precentage of KS. The Brome Grass on the ranches around Butler County is about as good as I've ever seen it (though my years are short, so that's not saying much). And it appears to be noticeably green this year - is that because of the drought we have been in the past years or is it actually greener than normal?
Well, a special weather observation satellite called MODIS has a way of detecting that. It has a lot of science I won't get into, but basically what it does is it can detect the radiation signature of a green plant, or a brown plant. Then it just compares it to normal.
As you can see much of Central/SC KS is normal, or well above normal when it comes to that particular statistic.
Another one called Vegetation Health Index shows again that Plants in the C/SC KS area are quite healthy. I'm not quite for sure the methodology behind this statistic (it is satellite derived) so take it FWIW.
Lastly, how is soil moisture doing? One of the most useful statistics in determining how quickly a drought will ease or, on the other hand, worsen is soil moisture. There are too many graphics to post here to really get a feel for it. So just trust me when I say that Soil Moisture is still well below normal, however it has improved, but should a hot dry spell hit the drought could quickly restrengthen its hold on SC KS. This is especially bad considering our surface water storage in SC KS is still well below normal.
Leaving with this...though it looks to remain hot for the next couple of days. Solid precipitation chances are approaching and someone in KS will get bountiful rain. Here is the HPC's (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) prediction for the next 7 days.
Some areas might pick up more, some possibly less....such is the case with Convective type precipitation.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
If temperatures stay above normal, normal precipitation is not going to significantly lessen the drought as we will be evaporating more.
Drought recovery is a long process, especially with a drought as extreme and sudden as we had last summer. Unless we get something of similar extreme to occur on the opposite end of the spectrum recovery will take a while.
Too Long; Didn't Read Version: The drought has lessened, significantly. Long ways to go. Currently at a fulcrum - could get alot better quickly, or a lot worse quickly.
Well the drought has eased across SC KS, but how much? How do we go about quantifying the impacts of a drought? (afterall that is what causes us to notice drought). It's a tough question, and something I've read a little bit about in the past year, and there is still really no simple answer. As with alot of things - basketball included - you have to look at a plethora of statistics, readings, measurements, etc., etc., in order to be able to determine it.
First off, start off simple. The things that are the main causes drought Temperature, and Precipitation.
Starting off with 90 days departure from normal Precipitation in Inches.
and then with Average Daily Temperature (degrees Fahrenheit) though this time on a Monthly Time Scale - for whatever reason 90days/3 month is not available.
Analysis: As you can see it has still been a little bit below average precipitation wise across most of KS. However, most of Eastern KS has been slightly below average with temperatures. This will cause evapotranspiration rates to decrease. So it is possible, that even with the slightly below average precipitation, the cooler temperatures have caused a situation in which the effect on the ecosystem is similar to if we had average precipitation. Also, the nature of the rains we have gotten this year - especially early on - have been kind of the "slow soaking large scale rain storms" type, that had several days of cloudy weather afterwards. The cloudy weather after a rain will significantly increase the amount of water that is absorbed into the ground just due to the fact that the atmosphere is not going to be taking that moisture back up. So that is another plus towards lessening the drought.
Moving on to the two impacts of drought that are most noticeable in our lives : Surface Water Storage and Plant Life.
First, Water Storage:
OBS: SC KS is still well below normal, Eastern KS is Normal to Above-Normal and Western KS is well, you know how it is out there right now.
Cheney Lake Level:
As many of you know, Cheney Lakes Watershed received around 6 inches of rain on the 31st? of May that caused Cheney to go up around 1.8 feet.
El Dorado Lake:
El Dorado Lake's level has been pretty unresponsive to any rain received this year, due to many factors. First and most importantly, there are a lot of watershed lakes that have overflow outflow into the the creeks that feed the lake. These are not full and overflowing yet. Also, the El Dorado watershed has not received enough rain in a short timespan, like Cheney has, to induce run-off. Should the watersheds north of the Lake fill up, the lake has been known to go up one foot per inch of rain the inflow of the lake has.
Arkansas River: This is from a stream guage in Wichita measured in Cubic Foot Per Second (CFS). The yellow triangles are the median daily CFS rate.
So as you might have known, some of the larger bodies of water around are still low, and look to stay that way for a little bit. However, a lot of cattle ponds are getting full on ranches/pastures here in Butler County and small streams are looking fairly good as well. Gota get the small systems full before the larger systems fill up.
Next plant life.
Observations: My dad who grew up on a wheat farm in Otis, KS says that this is the best our neighbors wheat crop has ever looked. However, that is apparently not the case for a large precentage of KS. The Brome Grass on the ranches around Butler County is about as good as I've ever seen it (though my years are short, so that's not saying much). And it appears to be noticeably green this year - is that because of the drought we have been in the past years or is it actually greener than normal?
Well, a special weather observation satellite called MODIS has a way of detecting that. It has a lot of science I won't get into, but basically what it does is it can detect the radiation signature of a green plant, or a brown plant. Then it just compares it to normal.
As you can see much of Central/SC KS is normal, or well above normal when it comes to that particular statistic.
Another one called Vegetation Health Index shows again that Plants in the C/SC KS area are quite healthy. I'm not quite for sure the methodology behind this statistic (it is satellite derived) so take it FWIW.
Lastly, how is soil moisture doing? One of the most useful statistics in determining how quickly a drought will ease or, on the other hand, worsen is soil moisture. There are too many graphics to post here to really get a feel for it. So just trust me when I say that Soil Moisture is still well below normal, however it has improved, but should a hot dry spell hit the drought could quickly restrengthen its hold on SC KS. This is especially bad considering our surface water storage in SC KS is still well below normal.
Leaving with this...though it looks to remain hot for the next couple of days. Solid precipitation chances are approaching and someone in KS will get bountiful rain. Here is the HPC's (Hydrometeorological Prediction Center) prediction for the next 7 days.
Some areas might pick up more, some possibly less....such is the case with Convective type precipitation.
FINAL THOUGHTS:
If temperatures stay above normal, normal precipitation is not going to significantly lessen the drought as we will be evaporating more.
Drought recovery is a long process, especially with a drought as extreme and sudden as we had last summer. Unless we get something of similar extreme to occur on the opposite end of the spectrum recovery will take a while.
Too Long; Didn't Read Version: The drought has lessened, significantly. Long ways to go. Currently at a fulcrum - could get alot better quickly, or a lot worse quickly.
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