2013 Severe Weather - ACT 3

[SB Shock]

Tornado Probabilities for Today

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Severe weather probabilities for Tuesday

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Severe Weather probabilities for Wednesday

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[SB Shock]

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[SB Shock]

And finally on the day 4-8 outlook this bullsey has shown up as WSUSHOX1 was hinting about - which is probably equivalent to Moderate Risk Day

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[pinstripers]

The potential is definitely there, with a good jet coming in by midweek. No, it's not clear-cut and models are disagreeing a bit, but it's there. So therefore, you're not gonna hear too much about something that's not edged in stone.

etched

[wsushox1]

The Dryline is just Insane with parameters today, not sure we will break the CAP on the atmosphere in that area though.

[shocksrbest]

The beginning of this week is shaping up to be quite potent.

Could have potentially 3 straight days of tornadic supercells across KS.

There are caveats:

Poor lapse rates causing weak instability.

But shear, both directionally and speed shear look incredible.

IF the atmopshere across KS is able to destabilize with moderate instability then we might be in for some rough days.

More later.

It's been a while but flooding could also become a concern if storms train over the same area multiple days in a row - which is possible.

Where do you get all of you atmospheric information? Being a life-long Kansan, I have always been interested in severe and tornadic weather and enjoy reading related posts from knowledgeable people.

[shocksrbest]

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So would this be the outlook for Thursday?

[SB Shock]

So would this be the outlook for Thursday?

yes. It is.

[wsushox1]

Where do you get all of you atmospheric information? Being a life-long Kansan, I have always been interested in severe and tornadic weather and enjoy reading related posts from knowledgeable people.

I'm an atmospheric science major at - prepare yourself - Lawrence U.

Lifelong Shox fan, and parents went to WSU. Just the way it shakes out, have a passion for the weather and KU only school with the major in-state.

There are a lot of good resources on line though, I'd start there.

[1979Shocker]

Dave Freeman said the tornadoes in north central Kansas are just dust devils on steroids.

[wsushox1]

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[SB Shock]

Day2 Moderate Risk for Wednesday. Expect it will be moved further west in later updates and maybe even scaled back some.

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[SB Shock]

Moderate Day 1 Risk for Wednesday. It looks like the biggest threat for the Wichita area is hail as this looks to be MCS by the time it gets to Wichita unless the cells can remain discrete.

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[RoyalShock]

We're just outside of the 10% area for tornadoes (the latest outlook dropped the 15% area that included mostly western OK). Our biggest severe threat in ICT-HUT will be wind and hail.

[wsushox1]

My concern is that Wichita is in prime position to catch a cell before it congeals into the linear mess of storms going on in Harvey County and north.

Cell near Medicine lodge looks interesting, thoguh is on a track to miss north of Wichita.

Other blips on the radar in harper county.