2013 Severe Weather - ACT 3

[1979Shocker]

Here is Time's explanation of the 16 minutes.

http://video.msnbc.msn.com/morning-joe/51963031

[RoyalShock]

First 10 minutes of the tornado:

[BenWSU]

It's weird not see much debris - Maybe because the debris ball is so dark on the outside

[wsushox1]

Was recently told that the extreme tornadoes we have been having recently are a result of climate change. (Yes I believe the earth is warming/has warmed(recently) though anthropogenic causes might not totally be behind it). Anyways, I told this guy that it was false and, of course, he told me I was wrong. Well I spent part of the day today working on a few little graphs that I believe will prove his assumption false. I hope you agree.

First off I start off with the number of EF-5/F-5 tornadoes since 1950.



(Important to note that NWS did not do damage surveys to determine rating till 1970, so some of the earlier tornadoes might not have receieved in F-5 rating if there was an onsite damage review conducted).

As you can see there is no upward trend, and if anything there is a downward trend. Though, factoring out the fact about damage surveys a good general assumption is that the EF-5/F-5 tornado rate of change is flat.

Proponents of the persons' theory will argue that tornado reports have on average increased since the 1950's. And that's really when warming took off so therefore they are related. However, I attribute it to population change/better forecasting/storm chasing.



With the population change....



This is nothing ground breaking by any means, and it's probably stuff most people are aware of. I just needed to prove the guy wrong with cold hard data.

[BenWSU]

Where were the global warming people when we had Hesston and Andover tornadoes ?

[ShockerFever]

Great stuff wsushox and an argument that you absolutely destroyed.

[1979Shocker]

My theory about the more powerful tornadoes are that they are more likely because of more debris being available to tear up, giving it a larger debris cloud. It's simple physics. The more mass that is closer to the center of a spinning object, the faster the spin. In the case of a tornado, the faster the spin, the more powerful the tornado. In the case of the Oklahoma City area, it has the 8th largest land area in the U.S. and being in "tornado alley", any tornado that hits that area will more than likely be a more powerful tornado.

[wsushox1]

nm

[wsushox1]

The beginning of this week is shaping up to be quite potent.

Could have potentially 3 straight days of tornadic supercells across KS.

There are caveats:

Poor lapse rates causing weak instability.

But shear, both directionally and speed shear look incredible.

IF the atmopshere across KS is able to destabilize with moderate instability then we might be in for some rough days.

More later.

It's been a while but flooding could also become a concern if storms train over the same area multiple days in a row - which is possible.

[ShockerFan94]

The SPC or NWS have nothing about Kansas getting a tornado outbreak / flooding

[Capitol Shock II]

Yes this is the first I've heard.

[SB Shock]

Yes this is the first I've heard.

He is right - there is a possibility of having a similiar repeat as of last week (at least having a 3-day period, geophraphically it will be different). The reason u have not seen anything yet is because it to far away from the near term spc outlook and there are some questionable items that keep it from being a no-brainer on long term outlook. We will have to see how things continue shape up. Bit I suspect you will start seeing more in the coming days and if you read the SPC 4-8 day outlook that are talking about conditions being favorable for some tornadoes, but they just are not brave enough to pull the string yet.

from the wichita NWS office

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN KANSAS MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KANSAS MONDAY EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND QUARTER SIZED HAIL. THERE WILL BE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR STORMS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. LOCATIONS WEST OF A LINE FROM SALINA TO HUTCHINSON TO HARPER...HAVE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS IS DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE DRYLINE FOR MULTIPLE DAYS. CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER EAST OF I-35 ARE MORE LIKELY TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK WHEN THE FRONT WILL FINALLY WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA.

[ShockerFever]

The potential is definitely there, with a good jet coming in by midweek. No, it's not clear-cut and models are disagreeing a bit, but it's there. So therefore, you're not gonna hear too much about something that's not edged in stone.

[ShockerFan94]

The potential is definitely there, with a good jet coming in by midweek. No, it's not clear-cut and models are disagreeing a bit, but it's there. So therefore, you're not gonna hear too much about something that's not edged in stone.

NWS starting to give hints on a possible 2-3 day severe/tornado outbreak

[wsushox1]

Wichita now in 4 consecutive days of At least a Slight Risk, though as Fever said, it's not a slam dunk and several of the days most of the action will be well West of Wichita.