Severe Weather 2013 - Act I

[SB Shock]

SUNDAY

Still a slight risk for today. With the greatest threat being hail with a slight chance for a tornado (but not a tornado outbreak).

Tornado Probabilities

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Wing Probabilities
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Hail Probabilities
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[SB Shock]

Monday

Monday threat may depend on what happens with Sunday storm plus there will be a strong cap that makes things uncertain of the coverage and how far south it makes.

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Tuesday

Timing is suspect for this day, but for now Wichita would is on the western outlier of the severe threat.

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[wsushox1]

Am kind of surprised that there is Capping issues on Monday. Seems we really haven't had any cap busts in KS the past couple of years, though we've had busts due to other factors. Interested to see how that one plays out.

[wsushox1]

Nice supercell with an interesting appendage moved through my neck of the woods just now.....Wish I was home.

[SB Shock]

Am kind of surprised that there is Capping issues on Monday. Seems we really haven't had any cap busts in KS the past couple of years, though we've had busts due to other factors. Interested to see how that one plays out.

Most days there is a cap and since they really are not expecting a major outbreak I don't think you would consider it a cap bust regardless of what happens. I think the real question is how much coverage there will be due to uncertainties about heating/forcing and moisture return to break whatever cap there is.

[SB Shock]

Threat for Wichita area seems low. They are expecting to be not much heating and less forcing than yesterday. The event looks to be more of Tuesday event for Wichita with the frontal passage.

With the liklely isolated nature of the storms today, the t-storms that do get started will likely be similiar to the long track supercells that started near Wichita yesterday and travel clear into Missouri and the ones who traveled from NW kansas into central ks yesterday. Biggest threat is still likely large hail but could produce a tornado


Monday

Tornado - Wind - Hail Threat
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[SB Shock]

Tuesday Threat Prediction from SPC

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[wsushox1]

Well, we'll see how this goes today. I'm headed to Pratt here in a bit with some other Atmo students. Not feeling too good, but it's not my car and I'll only have to pay around 10 dollars on gas. I guess that's how I'll justify taking a risk like this on a day like today. If anything can get going it's more than likely going to produce, if not well Sunshine on my shoulders.

[SB Shock]

Well, we'll see how this goes today. I'm headed to Pratt here in a bit with some other Atmo students. Not feeling too good, but it's not my car and I'll only have to pay around 10 dollars on gas. I guess that's how I'll justify taking a risk like this on a day like today. If anything can get going it's more than likely going to produce, if not well Sunshine on my shoulders.

were you with a group called I think "OhioMeso"?

[SB Shock]

Today threat has evolved to this point into a Moderate threat (due to tornado threat in OK). Wichita is on the back edge of the hail threat. Models are struggling with timing, but it looks like evening. The bigger threat maybe from the sleet/freezing rain after frontal passage.

Category Risk

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Tornado Risk
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Hail Risk

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[wsushox1]

were you with a group called I think "OhioMeso"?

Nah that wasn't me, we don't have a group name.

At least we can get some rain today in KS, at least we should.

[SB Shock]

I just found this funny (or at least I hope is funny in like it not going to happen) - Here is the NAM predicting 2-3 inches of snow for Wichita.

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[SB Shock]

Nah that wasn't me, we don't have a group name.

At least we can get some rain today in KS, at least we should.

I was just checking out some of the chaser cams and saw this group sitting out near St. John area yesterday waiting for the cap to break. They were pretty funny to listen to.

[wsushox1]

somewhat "east of turnpike"

[wsushox1]

I just found this funny (or at least I hope is funny in like it not going to happen) - Here is the NAM predicting 2-3 inches of snow for Wichita.

[ATTACH=CONFIG]740[/ATTACH]

ICT AFD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
652 AM CDT TUE APR 9 2013

......

TONIGHT:
FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY WITH LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLINT
HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS DURING THE EVENING. MEANWHILE VERY COLD AIR
AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD A WINTRY MIX IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
BASED ON SOUNDINGS...APPEARS THAT RAIN WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN THEN SOME MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN AND POSSIBLY LIGHT
SNOW...DEPENDING ON DEPTH OF COLD AIR BELOW WARM NOSE. WITH QPF OF
0.10 TO 0.20 FORECAST BY BOTH 0000 UTC ECMWF AND 0600 UTC NAM IN
THE 06-12 UTC PERIOD...MAY NEED TO HOIST WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR I-35 CORRIDOR. THE STRONG WINDS WILL RAMP UP EFFECTS OF ANY
GLAZE. GIVEN THE EXTREMELY SHARP GRADIENTS AND UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING...WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AND LET DAY SHIFT GET ANOTHER LOOK
AT ENSEMBLE DATA...12Z MODELS WITH BETTER SAMPLING AROUND UPPER
LOW AND BETTER TIMING ON UPPER LOW/FRONT.