Severe Weather 2013 - Act I

[SB Shock]

Storm Preduction center on their day 4-8 forecast have highlighted central and western kansas as possible area for severe weather for Monday/Tuesday (April 8-9). Generally only days with strong signals get highlighted this far out. So one should keep there eyes on how this evolves in coming days.

They are predicting "extreme hail and few tornadoes" possible.

[DUShock]

Thanks for the heads up SB.

[pogo]

Hail is nothing more than large frozen raindrops and we need the moisture so bring it on, the more the better. :)

[DUShock]

Hail is nothing more than large frozen raindrops and we need the moisture so bring it on, the more the better. :)

You are either A) independently wealthy and the premium increase is not an issue or B) do not pay house or auto premiums and deductible.

But other than hail I agree, bring on the precipitation!

[SB Shock]

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[SB Shock]

Hail is nothing more than large frozen raindrops and we need the moisture so bring it on, the more the better. :)

the real question is when WSU defeats Lousiville on Saturday and are playing on Monday night for the championship - what will be the TV meterologist decision be for interupting the game to break in and talk about the scary looking rotating clouds and excessive stiff rain drops....:nightmare:

[ShockerFever]

Definitely potential.

Definitely too far off to pinpoint anything though.

[wsushox1]

Moisture should be there, don't know what shear vectors are gonna do. Last couple of runs have had it with a closed low and the geostrophic flow around the closed low is going to be less than ideal for supercells. Also on runs when the lows hasn't been so closed with high amplitude the LLJ hasn't lined up too well. On tonights 0z GFS the run screams Moderate risk on Monday the 8th. And on tonights run there's even a little inversion towards the ICT area - which would surprise me to come to fruition. And if you like messy squall lines tuesday could be your day.

But as Fever said, too far out to get a good handle on it, and it wouldn't surprise me to see it slow down even more.

[SB Shock]

Todays SPC, the Monday event (D4) area has shrunken. Prediction for Tuesday (D5) and Wednesay (D6) are now up and have the signature of dry line / cold front driven system.

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There is less than a slight chance for sunday right now - it look to be more conditional depending how quickly the warm front progresses with probably the greatest severe weather chances down in Texas/OK. But at the very least there should be a good chance for T-Storms/Rain

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[DUShock]

"April showers bring May flowers".

[pogo]

the real question is when WSU defeats Lousiville on Saturday and are playing on Monday night for the championship - what will be the TV meterologist decision be for interupting the game to break in and talk about the scary looking rotating clouds and excessive stiff rain drops....:nightmare:

Now that concerns me.

[SubGod22]

I can guarantee that they wouldn't interrupt the game unless there was immediate danger. They know they'd receive way too much hell

[SB Shock]

I can guarantee that they wouldn't interrupt the game unless there was immediate danger. They know they'd receive way too much hell

well assuming there is sever weather (tornadoes) - there will be some immediate danger for somebody, it just won't be for most of the viewing area. Of course, with channel 12 they have some options I believe of going to alternative channels.

[wsushox1]

Still some timing issues. GFS is faster, Euro and even this mornings NAM is slower. GFS shows Monday as the day due to the cold front racing through early Monday morning. NAM has exceptional directional shear on Monday on the warm front way out in western Kansas, and it's looking like the typical two day event in Kansas with far western KS under the gun on the first day - then shifting east into SC KS the next day.

We'll see.

[SB Shock]

Evolving into possible active start to the week. Probabilities for the next 3 days:

SUNDAY

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MONDAY

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TUESDAY (D4), WEDNESDAY (D5)

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