KC Chiefs: Analysis of No. 1 Picks since 1990

[SB Shock]

QB - 14
DE - 3
DT - 2
OT - 2
RB - 1
WR - 1

% Years Making Playoffs After No. 1 Pick
NFL Average: 38%
Overall: 30%
Drafting QB: 34%
Not Drafting QB: 26%

DALLAS/NE/INDY/SD: 61%
All Others: 20%

Average Wins Per Year
NFL Average: 8
Overall: 7.6
5 yrs: 7.7
10 yrs: 7.5

Overall Drafting QB: 7.8
Overall Not Drafting QB: 7.1

5 Yr Avg after Drafting QB: 7.7
5 yr Avg After Not Drafting QB: 7.3

10 yr Avg After Drafting QB: 7.6
10 yr Avg After Not Drafting QB: 7.2

[SB Shock]

This next charts how these teams did in a 5yr and 10yr period after their #1 pick. It becomes obvious there two distributions fall out.

nfl1.JPG

[SB Shock]

This next charts shows how teams with the #1 picks have did against the NFL as a whole over the 1990 -2011 period.

nfl2.JPG

[SB Shock]

Overall, having the #1 pick is not some franchise saver. For those franchises that do make good choices with how they use their #1, it can be a game changer (NE, Indy). For most it really a badge of shame saying your franchise sucks and you will continue to suck.

[SB Shock]

Out of the 14 QB draft #1

2012 - Luck
2011 - Newton
2010 - Bradford
2009 - Stafford
2007- JaMarcus Russell
2005 - Alex Smith
2004 - Eli Manning
2003 - Carson Palmer
2002 - David Carr
2001 - Michael Vick
1999 - Tim Couch
1998 - Peyton Manning
1996 - Drew Bledsoe
1990 - Jeff George

8 out of the 14 were worth picks for QB

Notable QB drafted early
2012 - RG3 (3)
2009 - Josh Freeman (17)
2008 - Matt Fyan (3)
2008 - Joe Flacco (18)
2006 - Jay Cutler (11)
2005 - Aaron Rodgers (24)
2004 - Phillip Rivers (4)
2004 - Ben Rothlisberger (11)
2001 - Drew Brees (2-32)
2000 - Donovan McNabb (2)
1991 - Brett Favre (2 - 33)
1989 - Troy Aikman (No. 1 - set up the Aikman/Emmitt Smith run for Dallas)

[The Mad Hatter]

Presumably, the QBs that work skew the statistics so that not all teams drafting a QB see a win bump, but wins by top QBs pull up the average. More if boom or bust than guarantee. That said, QB is both by far our greatest need and the mist influential position in the league so the benefits are well worth the risk.

[lostshocker]

Presumably, the QBs that work skew the statistics so that not all teams drafting a QB see a win bump, but wins by top QBs pull up the average. More if boom or bust than guarantee. That said, QB is both by far our greatest need and the mist influential position in the league so the benefits are well worth the risk.

but are there any qb's worth taking this year?

[SB Shock]

but are there any qb's worth taking this year?

That is probably the biggest question that remains to be answered.

[shoxlax]

Trade down a few spots for a OT, pick up Geno Smith and hire Chip Kelly as your coach. The NFL retread route for QBs and coaches has gotten them nowhere.