Royals Off Season News

[newshock1234]

Dayton Moore is just as dumb as Scott Pioli

[RoyalShock]

My first reaction, which could change:

It hurts to lose Myers. I was concerned about his strikeout numbers, even though they got better at the end of the year. What I find interesting is that KC tried to trake Myers straight-up for several pitchers and was turned down every time. That makes me think we are over-valuing him compared to how he's seen by rival GMs.

Losing Odirizzi doesn't bother me nearly as much. I think his ceiling is as a #4 on a contender. In 2014 we'll have at least 2 guys coming off TJ surgery who are better (Duffy, Paulino) along with Lamb. Zimmer isn't too far behind.

Glad to see Mikey Enigma go. Tired of waiting. I don't know enough about the other guy.

Like it or not (and I'm still on the fence), this move is Moore and Glass saying they want to compete for the division in 2013 and 2014, before the offense gets potentially too expensie to keep together. Butler has a team option for 2015 taking him from $8mil to $12.5mil - pricey for a DH. Gordon will go from $10mil to $12.5mil after 2014. Hosmer and Moose will both be arb-eligible.

Shields gives us a legit front-line starter for two years. He eats up innings which helps the bullpen. Davis is under control through 2017 (mostly club options). His minor-league numbers are comparable to Odorizzi and can be either a #4 in the rotation or a quality bullpen arm. The PTBNL is a total wildcard. I don't expect it to be an impact prospect, but you never know.

I'm trying to talk myself into liking this trade. But I do feel that if KC ever wants to truly compete, this is the type of trade we have to be willing to pull off. At some point you have to stop "building for the future" and pull the trigger to compete now.

So, how do we address right field? Well, it is a contract year for Frenchy so maybe he'll split the difference between his last two season's numbers. Cain can also play RF while running Dyson and Lough in CF.

Here is some reaction from MLBTradeRumors.com:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/reaction-to-rays-royals-trade.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

[SB Shock]

I remember hearing many times this past year that if we had even "serviceable" starting pitching we could have won quite a few of the games we lost. .

Well lets dispel that myth. Royals pitching was the 5th worse team in giving up runs in the AL. Their offense was the 3rd worst team in the AL. They were not just a pitcher or two away from being competitive.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

I was only referring to the games our offense showed up. We lost many of those.

[Slalomshocker]

KC trades a high potential bat and a projected middle of the rotation guy for a proven +MLB Starter and a proven MLB reliever. When a team tradesprospects they are supposed to get proven MLB talent, KC did that. Everyone claiming Dayton just threw away the best bat to hit KC since Brett....maybe you all should calm down and check his strike out rate. 0.25 in the minors. 1 in every 4 ABs. You can't possibly tell me Ned wouldn't feel like he had to have Myers in the middle of the lineup to produce runs, where his strikeouts would absolutely KILL the offense. He also only hit .304 in AAA. That doesn't translate to .300+ at the MLB level next year. Would it be nice to have the pop he would provide to the lineup, absolutely. The kid will likely turn out to be a fine MLB player, but given the Royals current need to win now to save face with the fans it made sense. Who knows, maybe Shields will require TJ surgery after his first start and this whole thing blows up in Dayton's face, but come on guys, KC needed a front line guy and they got him. Shields might not be front line league wide, but he is better than what KC had to this point. I give the move an B+, as they did give up a lot of unproven talent.

[SubGod22]

KC trades a high potential bat and a projected middle of the rotation guy for a proven +MLB Starter and a proven MLB reliever. When a team tradesprospects they are supposed to get proven MLB talent, KC did that. Everyone claiming Dayton just threw away the best bat to hit KC since Brett....maybe you all should calm down and check his strike out rate. 0.25 in the minors. 1 in every 4 ABs. You can't possibly tell me Ned wouldn't feel like he had to have Myers in the middle of the lineup to produce runs, where his strikeouts would absolutely KILL the offense. He also only hit .304 in AAA. That doesn't translate to .300+ at the MLB level next year. Would it be nice to have the pop he would provide to the lineup, absolutely. The kid will likely turn out to be a fine MLB player, but given the Royals current need to win now to save face with the fans it made sense. Who knows, maybe Shields will require TJ surgery after his first start and this whole thing blows up in Dayton's face, but come on guys, KC needed a front line guy and they got him. Shields might not be front line league wide, but he is better than what KC had to this point. I give the move an B+, as they did give up a lot of unproven talent.

They traded arguably the best bat in the organization and anchor of the team for years and a projected #2 for a good, not great, starter and a bullpen arm. Davis is no different than a number of guys the Royals already have on the team. Maybe he becomes our #5 maybe he stays in the pen. But that's not where we needed help. We essentially gave up the only two major league ready guys in the minors who should have been starting for us this season for a rentapitcher who on a good staff is a #3 at best and a dime-a-dozen pitcher. Maybe Davis turns it around, but I'd rather have years of Odorizzi than 2 of Shields. Davis to me is pretty much a nonfactor and the PTBNL is even less of a factor. Shields will eat innings, but he's not the guy to lead a rotation. His trend line if I'm not mistaken has been going downward as well. Not that he sucks, but he's no savior of the staff.

I have no problem packaging Monty in a deal. He needs a change of scenery and is still enough of a prospect to help a trade. Leonard is a good looking 3B who could be solid/serviceable in the future. With our depth at that position he's a good name to put in a deal as well.

I would have been ok with this if either Myers or Odorizzi weren't in this. One, but not both. The next impact arm we have in the minors is really at least 2 years away unless we're lucky. We have some guys that can fit in in the 3-5 range, but unless Ventura becomes that ace that they hope or Lamb comes back stronger than expected, we're a few years away from any help.

It's not scientific, but according to my FB feed, this trade is overwhelmingly despised by my Royals friends. Only one friend has come out in favor of it. What little bit I was looking at last night seemed to show that most feel tha way as well.

[Downtown Shocker Brown]

Total MLB rank
IP 477 2nd
K 448 3rd
CG 14 1st
ShO 6 T-1st
ERA 3.15 17th

Pretty strong numbers the past 2 years.

[SB Shock]

BA has pretty good article on this trade. Pretty much they like it.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/majors/trade-central/2012/2614446.html

Here is a couple Front office excutive comments on the trade

An AL Front-Office Executive: "I don't like the trade for KC, but I think the general reaction that this is the 'worst trade ever' is hyperbolic nonsense. The Royals are going to be better in 2013 with this trade, no doubt. But to judge the deal right now is silly. If the Royals make the playoffs and end nearly three decades of misery, it's worth it. If the prospects don't work out, then it's a good trade for KC. If the Royals win 81 games each of the next two years and Myers turns into an All-Star then it's a bad trade. All of those are within a realistic realm of possibility. To judge the deal right now with some sort of absolutism to an extreme is to simply exert a lot of energy to be part of the maddening crowd."

"It's a bold, fascinating baseball trade with layers of talent for both sides. Shields is an ace and his style, along with his work ethic permeates a clubhouse positively. Wade Davis is vastly underrated and should be able to start successfully going forward.

Wil Myers is a monster. Jake Odorizzi is an athletic, talented pitcher that is held in the same regard that Wade Davis was as a prospect four years ago. Montgomery has a huge arm with wobbly command that should transition to the bullpen reminiscent of when Matt Thornton got traded from Seattle to Chicago. Patrick Leonard has big power and profiles at third base or right field.

It's a creative transaction on many levels. Both sides accomplished what they wanted to achieve. Shields and Myers are the headliners of the deal, although the many layers and secondary pieces of this transaction have a strong percentage chance to impact as well. It's a fascinating, talent for talent, pure baseball trade."

"I like it a lot for Kansas City. Here's the premise for why I think it was important for them. Wil Myers is not a major league ready impact bat, and might take a couple years of struggles burning into his major league service time, while Kansas City continues to toil around .500 and maybe Hosmer and Moose come into their own. Then they play in that mid-rotation market for guys like (Jeremy) Guthrie, (Ervin) Santana and even Odorizzi and then (Bruce) Chen/ (Jonathan) Sanchez types on the back-end with little or no chance of taking them to the next level.

what I'm afraid is from this scout:

The biggest thing is Dayton Moore needs to get over 500 this year to keep job. This deal may have helped him keep his job."

Ultimately I think this trade will be judged on whether Meyers is SUPERSTAR type OF than some of the scouts say he is or whether he is "Wil Myers is not a major league ready impact bat".

[Slalomshocker]

Sub- I think I agree with you on trading either Myers/Odorizzi, but not both. KC has some prospects to replace both guys, but as you said, those prospects aren't even close to ready yet. Not that my one vote will make a difference in your "poll" but I would put myself in the like category. Probably a 55-45 type of like/dislike.

[RoyalShock]

The more this trade sinks in, the more I think it something that had to be done to take advantage of where the lineup is in terms of maturity, production and contract status. Moore had to strike while his offense was still affordable.
The big question is how good does this trade make our starting rotation. I submit the following:

Last year's season-opening rotation:

1: Chen
2: Hochevar
3: Sanchez
4: Mendoza
5: Duffy

Do you remember the 12-game losing streak? The offense was fairly crappy during that span but there was only 2 games where the pitching gave up fewer than 4 runs. I don't see that happening with . . .

This season's projected rotation:

1: Shields
2: Guthrie
3: Santana
4/5: Davis/Chen/Mendoza

By the start of the 2nd half that could be:

1: Shields
2: Guthrie
3: Paulino
4: Duffy
5: Santana/Davis/Chen/Mendoza

When was the last time KC had a rotation with that kind of talent and depth? KC endured five losing streaks of 4+ games last year, plus two, 2-7 stretches that didn't include any of the aforementioned streaks. Those days should finally be over.

[vtshocker]

I still think their love for Hoch makes him our 5th starter this year

[SubGod22]

I still think their love for Hoch makes him our 5th starter this year

Listening to DM on 610 while at lunch, it sounds as if the rotation is shaping up to be Shields, Guthrie, Santana, Davis and then competition between Chen, Hochevar, Mendoza and Smith. Of the four, I'll be pulling for Smith. The rotation looks better, but I don't see it doing enough and it didn't sound like DM did either. He was asked a couple of times about if he felt like it was playoffs or bust over the next two (Shields) years and he said no. I think because he knows this isn't the type of deal to put them in that realm of play. If we don't make the playoffs in the next two years, DM needs to go. It's not like the Central is the toughest division in baseball...

[SB Shock]

I'm going to do a over/under analysis to see where in least in terms of WAR this team might be predicted to perform at. So if anybody want in projected lineups/rotations analyzed please post.

[shockmonster]

If Odirizzi's ceiling is as a #3 starter, what's to say that he hits that ceiling? And what's to say that Myers hits his ceiling and becomes a superstar? Is there such as a sure thing in the major leagues? On the other hand, both Shields and Davis have had pretty good major league careers thus far. Either way, it's a risk and there are major league experts who are arguing both ways. I see both sides but tend to lean towards the risk that Dayton Moore decided to take. Now the Royals need to take the next step and beging to win and to me that means that they are at least within striking distance in August in the American Central. The proof will be in the pudding.

[SubGod22]

Major problem is the black hole in RF now with no hope. I've always seen Jake projected as a #2. Myers is as close to a sure thing as you can get right now. Shields is at best a #2, but he'll be our #1 by default. Davis is a #4 or #5 at best and was in the pen for a reason in Tampa.

If the Royals don't win this year or next, Dayton will lose his job. He's preached staying the course and letting phase one complete, I, and many others, feel he's jumped the gun and given up on phase one to win now. Mostly because I think he feels his job is in danger.

KC still needs to figure something out in RF. Need to figure out if Cain can stay healthy in CF. If there are any injuries in the OF or with the SP we're screwed as there's really nobody in AAA that can step in outside of MAYBE Ventura. But he's still got a little more to prove but I hope he can be what the Royals think. He's seen as anything from a future #1 to a bullpen guy.

AA didn't have a lot going for it last year and our best AAA guys are gone. They have to win now or we wait for the A guys to develop. That bothers me.