April 27 SVR Weather

[wsushox1]

Today has quite the possibility to be on of those conditional days in which: if things line up perfectly, could end up having one or two significant supercells move across parts of C/SC/SE KS.

I'm too tired and sick to post images, but just be weather aware.

[SB Shock]

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SPC has sent out a early morning update through a MCD that upgrade to MODERATE risk will happen. Wichita is in the SLIGHT, but near the MODERATE.


CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 271116Z - 271215Z THERE WILL BE A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE FROM A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OVER CNTRL-ERN KS AND FAR WRN MO FOR THE UPCOMING 1300Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED REGARDING A GREATER THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA. ..SMITH.. 04/27/2012

[DUShock]

I believe that April to September is tornado season in the Great Plains. In other words it is almost a perpetual tornado/severe thunderstorm watch. I appreciate the detailed updates SB, thanks.

[wsushox1]

Early Initiation.

[PlaneShocker]

Early Initiation.

Tornado outbreak likely.

[wsushox1]

Tornado outbreak likely.

The axis of instability is so narrow, that I just don't see an "outbreak" likely. There could be one or two significant supercells with siggy tors but I just don't think an "outbreak" of five to six supercells likely. I could be wrong

[ShockerFever]

Tornado outbreak likely.

Outbreak? Uh no.

[wsushox1]

[wsushox1]

[wsushox1]

Dryline surging almost to west wichita.

[SB Shock]

dewpoint went from 66.1 to 48.5 in 50 minutes.

[Kung Wu]

dewpoint went from 66.1 to 48.5 in 50 minutes.

But what does that mean in terms of what's going to happen?

[WstateU]

But what does that mean in terms of what's going to happen?

Good question... these guys are starting to scare the bejesus out of me. Oh, and now we have 'DOFO THE WEATHERMAN' chiming in. Lord help us.

[SB Shock]

But what does that mean in terms of what's going to happen?

In short it means nothing going to happen as far as sever weather - at least around Wichita.

Dry line has blown by the wichita area which means no moisture, no instability, no convergence and therefore no tornadoes.

[ShockerFever]

Great call on the "outbreak", Dofo.

Seriously, don't try to act like you know what you're talking about, if you don't know what you're talking about.

Thanks.