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Severe Weather; April 27th-28th

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  • Severe Weather; April 27th-28th

    possible severe weather, still to far out.

    AN AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW REGIME...WITH RIDGING OVER THE WEST AND
    TROUGHING OVER THE EAST...APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
    INTO AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE BREAKING DOWN.
    ONCE THIS OCCURS...VARIOUS MEDIUM RANGE MODELS/MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN
    SUGGESTIVE THAT A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE
    EASTERN PACIFIC COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
    ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS BY NEXT THURSDAY.
    HOWEVER...MODEL VARIABILITY CONCERNING THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN...AND
    REMAINS...TOO HIGH TO CONFIDENTLY DETERMINE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
    REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT.

  • #2
    looks like at the earliest would be next weekend

    DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0322 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2012


    THEREAFTER...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND UNCERTAIN SPECIFIC EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER TROUGH PRECLUDE ANY 30 PERCENT SEVERE AREAS AT THIS TIME. NONETHELESS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED/POTENTIAL SLIGHT RISK-CALIBER SEVERE THREATS COULD EXIST DAY 5/THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS/PERHAPS ROCKIES FRONT RANGE...AND INTO DAYS 6-7 FRIDAY/SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS POTENTIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF KS/OK/NORTHWEST TX AND POSSIBLY THE ADJACENT MO VALLEY.

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    • #3
      Not looking like a repeat of Saturday's tornado outbreak, but it could be bad.

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      • #4
        Define "bad".
        Deuces Valley.
        ... No really, deuces.
        ________________
        "Enjoy the ride."

        - a smart man

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        • #5
          Isolated funnels; a good hail & wind storm

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          • #6
            Originally posted by PlaneShocker View Post
            Isolated funnels; a good hail & wind storm
            Most storms will be in NW KS. Possibly a rain shower here in Wichita.

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