Severe Weather to continue on Thursday - Friday

[PlaneShocker]

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CDT SUN APR 15 2012

VALID 181200Z - 231200Z

...DISCUSSION...
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
REGARDING THE OVERALL PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. BEYOND THURSDAY THE
GFS IS CONSIDERABLY MORE AGGRESSIVE IN THE EVOLUTION OF ERN U.S.
TROUGH AS IT DIGS INTO THE MID SOUTH.

PRIOR TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL DIVERGENCE...FLOW WILL INCREASE A
BIT ACROSS THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS WITHIN THE BASE OF THE PROGRESSIVE
TROUGH. IT APPEARS A FRONTAL SURGE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS
WHICH WILL FORCE A BOUNDARY ACROSS KS INTO OK ON THURSDAY. IF
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THIS
REGION BY DAY5 THEN THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT ROBUST STORMS MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY IS A BIT TOO
LOW REGARDING THIS SCENARIO TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE RISK AT
THIS TIME. BEYOND DAY5 TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITHIN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE GULF STATES TO SUPPORT A SEVERE RISK.

[wsushox1]

There is too much uncertainty to even begin to guess what could happen.

Not exactly positive that this will effect the area at the moment either.

[PlaneShocker]

There is too much uncertainty to even begin to guess what could happen.

Not exactly positive that this will effect the area at the moment either.

Look at the forecast Wednesday & see. Could be worse than last weekends

[wsushox1]

Worse than yesterdays storms?

Highly unlikely.

We were able to tell that yesterdays system had dangerous potential 6-7 days in advance, and there is nothing that looks anything close to that on the models for this week to weekend.

Only thing of concern is embedded jet streaks/shortwaves across zonal west to east flow.

Don't get me wrong, there could still be a strong storm that could effect an area, but the general strength of the system, and liklihood of that happening is low.

[PlaneShocker]

Unlikely, but you never know.

Doubt if it's nearly as bad.

Heavy Rain / Hail will be threats

[ShockerFever]

Hold your horses dofo. Comparing this system to the last one is quite the fail. They aren't even close in any way.