April Severe Weather Week (April 8 - April 14)

[SB Shock]

SPC has risks for KS on Monday, Thursday and Saturday. When the SPC start showing opportunities 4-8 days out, generally this means a strong signal is showing up in the models.

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[SB Shock]

Looking more and more likely that this week will be the first 2012 multi-day severe weather situation. Latest update has Thur-Sat.

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[SB Shock]

The prognosis remains the same. They are saying Sunday also could be a sever weather day but location and severity may be dependent on what happens on Saturday.

It will be interesting to see when these days get 1-3 days out if they will be moderate risk days or not.

[wsushox1]

Sunday according to the 12z GFS will be a severe day.

[wsushox1]

Didn't even see this thread SB.

[ShockerFever]

Not a perfect setup for any given day, but definitely some severe weather looks likely this weekend.

[BenWSU]

Probably get a good hailstorm instead of tornado but its finally our turn to deal with tornadoes

[wsushox1]

Probably get a good hailstorm instead of tornado but its finally our turn to deal with tornadoes

Hail will be a big threat with this system.

[DUShock]

Hail will be a big threat with this system.

Great

[SB Shock]

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Overall It is not looking particularly explosive.

[wsushox1]

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Overall It is not looking particularly explosive.

? SPC almost went Day 3 moderate, and mentioned tornadic supercells on the Day4-8 outlook.

There are some things to work out, whether or not the secondary low will form quick enough to back surface winds back to the SE, instability, the strength and orientation of the LLj, the Orientation of the Dryline, but those things are looking better and better.

[wsushox1]

Saturday could be a higher end moderate risk day, with a potential at a high risk.

[SB Shock]

? SPC almost went Day 3 moderate, and mentioned tornadic supercells on the Day4-8 outlook.

I am not sure how to read the hatching? The 15% is not a moderate risk for day 3, 45% is moderate risk. Though the text does say that while they are keeping lower probabilities now, they may need to be upgraded at later dates.

So am I suppose to read that the slight risk is upgrade to Moderate because of the Hatching? Therefore there is a Moderate risk of a significant severe event but it will be more of Isolated and not wide spread?

[ShockerFever]

Saturday could be a higher end moderate risk day, with a potential at a high risk.

I agree. If the surface low is progged over western Kansas, as is the case now, and winds actually back, there is the potential for quite a show on Saturday around here.

[SB Shock]

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Mike Smith has pointed out that there is L-Shape Hodograph from the NAM on Friday for Wichita