2011 Kansas City Chiefs Off-season

[shockmonster]

with his neck problems, if Manning plays again, he has been knocked in the head too many times.

[shock]

I agree with shockmonster. Manning's neck is a concern. But, its manning. DTSB, I just assumes that there was no way in hell kc could get the #1 pick. Oh, and Monster, Tannehill is no better than Cassel. His football iq is low and he folds under the rush. He did look good last year though.
KC needs to make a run at Drew Brees as well.

[Awesome Sauce Malone]

If the Chiefs signed Manning, we would be instant super bowl contenders next year, especially if we drafted a right tackle in the 1st next year.

I concur. We have a great running game with Charles and two great receivers.

[newshock1234]

I concur. We have a great running game with Charles and two great receivers.

Bowe would be a top 5 wr easily with manning then we have a nice slot guy with Breaston and then a high potential guy in Baldwin, then mix that with a Good TE with Moeaki. The 1 thing Manning never really had in Indy was a home run threat at RB like Jamaal Charles. Then our Defense finished this year at 11th overall without one of top defensive players in Eric Berry, and plus we allowed 89 points in the first 3 games, I bet we were easily top 7 or 8 in the last 13 on defense. Manning never really had a good defense to play with as well.

[shockmonster]

Tannehill is no better than Cassel. His football iq is low and he folds under the rush. He did look good last year though.

No one thought that Brady was close to a franchise QB either. They have to evaluate and interview the QB's and make their best guess. Maybe they strike gold with the one they pick. In my opinion, none of the remaining QB's are first rounders.

[shock]

Which is why the chiefs need to sack up and get a home run QB. The rest will fall into place soon after. Get a good QB and Bowe will stay, tag Carr and work on the OL. Defense is championship caliber right now but the offense cannot compete worth crud.

[SB Shock]

86% of the Pro-Bowl QB's are draft in the first 3 rounds. Only round outside the first three that shows any significance is the 6th round (6%) which is because of Tom Brady



Capture_NFL.jpg

Breakdown by Individual QB by Round

1st - 32% (Peyton Manning - 11 Pro-bowls)
2nd - 15% (Brett Favre - 11 Pro-bowls)
3rd - 17% (Chris Chandler - 2 pro-bowl)
4th - 3% (David Garrard - 1 pro-bowl)
5th - 3% (Mark Brunell - 3 pro-bowl)
6th - 11% (Tom Brady - 6 pro-bowl)
7th - 4% (Matt Cassel - 1 pro-bowl)
8th - 22% (2 of 9 QB) (Trent Green - 2 pro-bowl, Elvis Grbac - 1 pro-bowl)
9th - 17% (1 of 6 QB) (Brad Johnson - 2 pro-bowls)
10th - 0%
11th - 0%
12th - 0%

[Wu du Nord]

86% of the Pro-Bowl QB's are draft in the first 3 rounds. Only round outside the first three that shows any significance is the 6th round (6%) which is because of Tom Brady.

Nice chart, but what point are you trying to illustrate?

It is certainly debatable what a 'pro-bowl' appearance signifies, not to mention that it's at best a relative metric that can't account for absolute quality (whatever that means in this context) of play. Brad Johnson? Get real, man.

Not sure where you got your list from, but I don't see Marc Bulger. He was a late round selection that played in the Pro-bowl. Where's undrafted Kurt Warner? Someone hates St Louis!

Also, many first round qb's are never successful in the NFL.

Lastly, while there may be some correspondence between draft round and future success, there's no rule that says it has to be YOUR draft pick.

[SB Shock]

Nice chart, but what point are you trying to illustrate?

I just posted the data, because there was a discussion of whether to draft or not to draft a QB.

It is certainly debatable what a 'pro-bowl' appearance signifies, not to mention that it's at best a relative metric that can't account for absolute quality (whatever that means in this context) of play.

You are correct it does not account for "absolute quality, but "Pro-bowl" is a simple metrix that people understand.

The best metric would have listed their "Approximate Value" as graded by Pro-Football Reference but to try and explain how this value is arrived at and then "calibrate" everybody to what is a good value and what is bad. People eyes would glaze over because they don't really care about the weighting scheme and the complex formula. In the big scheme of things whether you use the pro-bowl as a metric or their "AV", the chart basically looks the same. QB taken in the first 3 rounds have significantly more success in the NFL.

Brad Johnson? Get real, man.

He was a 9th round pick who had a good NFL career, all teams should be lucky to draft Brad Johnson of the world with their 9th round pick.

Not sure where you got your list from, but I don't see Marc Bulger. He was a late round selection that played in the Pro-bowl. Where's undrafted Kurt Warner? Someone hates St Louis!

You must be a Lutz with their Stl. fetish. Everything doesn't revolve around STL.

I could only list the best, not all the QB.

Bulger is overshadowed by Brady and Hasselbeck who were also taking in the 6th round and who were better QBs.Warner is one of those outliers that he wasn't drafted.

Also, many first round qb's are never successful in the NFL.

yes that is correct, 68% of first round QB don't ever play in a pro-bowl. But then again 97% of 4th round QB never play in a pro-bowl. A 1st round QB will have 3.5 time more value on average than QB taken in the 4th round.

But if you want a takeaway - if you are not drafting a QB in the first 3 rounds, don't expect a savior (if you do get lucky he will probably be traded off) and if you do draft a QB in the first 3 rounds there is probably only 1 in 3 chance he will be your savior.

[shock]

For every Manning, there is a Russell, Leaf, and Gabbert.

[SubGod22]

For every Manning, there is a Russell, Leaf, and Gabbert.

And Blackledge...

[SB Shock]

And Blackledge...

In that draft there were 7 hall of famers, and 5 of them were picked after the Chiefs #7 overall pick (two of them were QB - Marino and Kelly)

[SB Shock]

For every Manning, there is a Russell, Leaf, and Gabbert.

In Manning case, there is a Ryan Leaf

[Wu du Nord]

I just posted the data, because there was a discussion of whether to draft or not to draft a QB.

True, but your data and graph doesn't really contribute anything to that discussion, as I read it.

You are correct it does not account for "absolute quality, but "Pro-bowl" is a simple metrix that people understand.

Thank you.

The best metric would have listed their "Approximate Value" as graded by Pro-Football Reference but to try and explain how this value is arrived at and then "calibrate" everybody to what is a good value and what is bad. People eyes would glaze over because they don't really care about the weighting scheme and the complex formula. In the big scheme of things whether you use the pro-bowl as a metric or their "AV", the chart basically looks the same. QB taken in the first 3 rounds have significantly more success in the NFL.

Still problematic: the currently unemployed Bill Polian would agree with me. Individual players have specific unique value to each and every team. This value doesn't necessarily translate well.

Also the composition of the particular draft is important. For example, iirc, Brees was a second rounder, but was the second QB selected (Vick went first that year). Some years it makes sense to draft a QB early. Other years it don't make no sense.

He was a 9th round pick who had a good NFL career, all teams should be lucky to draft Brad Johnson of the world with their 9th round pick.

Totally fair point.

You must be a Lutz with their Stl. fetish. Everything doesn't revolve around STL.

Pardon? Au contraire, mon frere, I have nothing of the sort.

It is you, you who has the fetish... for Lutz.

You just can't help yourself. He's the fire that toasts your marshmallows to a golden brown before you press 'em on a bar of slightly melted chocolate and smush 'em between a couple of tasty graham crackers.

How'd that taste?

Actually, I just kinda remembered that they were both crazy low selections. Thinking of one triggered the other. You are welcome.

I could only list the best, not all the QB.

Listing them all wouldn't have helped much, but at least it wouldn't have looked like you were cherry picking data points.

Bulger is overshadowed by Brady and Hasselbeck who were also taking in the 6th round and who were better QBs.Warner is one of those outliers that he wasn't drafted.

The entire football world is overshadowed by Brady. ;-)

But if you want a takeaway - if you are not drafting a QB in the first 3 rounds, don't expect a savior (if you do get lucky he will probably be traded off) and if you do draft a QB in the first 3 rounds there is probably only 1 in 3 chance he will be your savior.

Here's another take away... if you suck at evaluating talent, you can't even land a savior with the first pick of the first round draft. Yes, I'm looking at you Al Davis and JaMarcus Russell. Although, to be fair, maybe nobody should have been drafting QB's that year. I just looked at the 2007 draft list. it's horrendous.

[shock]

Names tied with the coaching search:
Jeff Fisher, interviewed soon after Haley was fired.
Joe Philbin, Packers OC, interviewed last week.
Bill O'Brien, NE OC, will most likely be taking the Penn State job.
Josh McDaniel, Rams OC, will not be coming to KC.

Most expect Philbin to be named Coach. As far as I know, RAC has not been contacted by another team, and would possibly stay. Philbin has been described as humble and quiet, just the type of guy Pioli will go for, and the type of guy that RAC could work well with. Philbin is also the architect of one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL, and if he brought his backup QB, the offense in KC could be a clone, which isn't a bad thing. Even if Flynn is a system QB, the system only failed once in twelve months, and won a NFC Championship and a Superbowl, and os a favorite to repeat.