KC Royals - September

[SubGod22]

Playing catch up after practically being in bed the past 4 days. Mendoza's line a good thing for Royals

CHICAGO -- Luis Mendoza has moved from the Omaha pitching rotation to Kansas City's without a hitch.

Mendoza won his second straight start on Sunday, as the Royals beat an almost-as-tough Gavin Floyd and the Chicago White Sox, 2-1, on a damp, overcast afternoon with 22,018 fans watching at U.S. Cellular Field.

A big right-hander from Mexico, Mendoza went a career-high 7 2/3 innings and held the White Sox to five hits and one run.

"Against their 'A' lineup, too," manager Ned Yost said. "He really did a great job, got us into the eighth inning with two outs and scoreless."

Mendoza had a shutout going when singles by Gordon Beckham and Alexei Ramirez with two outs in the eighth prompted Yost to summon Greg Holland from the bullpen. Paul Konerko jumped on a first-pitch fastball and doubled in a run.

I still have a hard time believing he can be this effective. But he's earned a shot in ST.

Mazzaro excels in return to Royals

CHICAGO -- Vin Mazzaro, just called up from Triple-A Omaha, made a favorable impression, as he pitched the ninth inning of Friday night's 11-1 victory over the White Sox.

He retired all three batters he faced, ending the victory for Bruce Chen with a strikeout.

"I was really impressed with the way Vinny came in and threw the ball, 93, 94 miles an hour, throwing strikes, on the attack, nice slider. I was happy," manager Ned Yost said. "Yeah, you come in an 11-1 game, but it's still an audition. The manager's still watching to see how you throw the ball."

Francoeur joins 20-20 club

CHICAGO -- Jeff Francoeur joined some elite company in Royals history, members of the 20-20 club -- with 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases in the same season.

When Francoeur belted his 20th homer in the fifth inning on Friday night against the White Sox, he was just the fourth Royals player in the club -- but it was the eighth time the feat had been accomplished.

Carlos Beltran did it four times, Bo Jackson twice and Amos Otis once, prior to Francoeur

[SubGod22]

Making The Leap

Considering they are 20 games under .500 and well out of the race for anything but not finishing last, the Kansas City Royals have given us a heck of a September. As I mentioned on Monday (and it was hardly a unique thought), we all should be somewhat wary of getting too excited about things that happen in September. Especially this year when the Royals are not playing anyone that has something left to play for.

That said, one can look at this Royals team and certainly see the potential to be better in 2012, maybe even dramatically ‘look whose on Sports Center again tonight’ better. The leap from 70 wins (or wherever this team ends up) to 90 wins is not a small one, however.

A short time back, I did some preliminary research on teams that had made leaps from bad to good in one year. At the time, my intent was to discuss a group of them in one generic column, but as the Royals played better and the fanbase became more excited, I thought it might be more interesting to detail several of these teams in separate columns and see what sort of comparisons we could draw to the 2011 and 2012 Royals.

The three teams that have caught my eye are the 2005/2006 Detroit Tigers, the 2008/2009 Tampa Bay Rays and today’s team: the 2000/2001 Minneosta Twins. What all three of these organizations have in common is that they were basically bad for a long stretch of time and improved rather dramatically into contenders seemingly out of nowhere. There are others, to be sure, but hopefully by the time I am done with these three reviews we might have some sort of feel for what sort of improvement is at least theoretically possible for our 2012 Royals.

Now, I know everyone is tired of hearing about how the Minnesota Twins just ‘do things the right way’. In fact, it has been beaten into us for so long that I am even tired of the sarcasm and snark that follows that mantra. You know it has gone on too long when the people making fun of something stupid have become as annoying as those who beat the dumb statement into our brains in the beginning.

Anyway, the 2000 Minnesota Twins won just 69 games, marking the eighth straight season in which they did not get over .500. They had won just 63 games in 1999 and only 70 the year before that: the Twins were not good and had not been good since winning 90 games in 1992. In 2001, however, the Twins went 85-77 and were tied for first as late as August 11th. They faded, mostly courtesy to going 2-7 versus the division winning Indians down the stretch, to finish 6 games out. The Twins took another step in 2002, going 94-67 to win the Central and a playoff series and would go on to be .500 or better in seven of the next eight years.

Back to the year 2000. Minnesota’s average age for position players was 26.5 and for pitchers was 26.6. They were not crazy young, but they were young. They were 13th in runs scored and 10th in team ERA. Frankly, the Royals looked like a far better bet to make a leap into contention than Minnesota did back then.

Getting Defensive With Hosmer

I’m sure this got the Lee Judge Fanboys all hyper (kind of like when I mainline Cheez-Doodles and Mountain Dew) but there was some chatter in the middle of the week about how Eric Hosmer ranks last among American League first baseman in Ultimate Zone Rating. (UZR) It’s important because with the Rookie of the Year race getting closer by the inning, defense could come into play with some voters who will have a difficult decision to make.

We’ve all seen The Hos play first. In my opinion, he’s the best defensive first baseman we’ve had in Kansas City since Wally Joyner. From watching the games, I give him high grades for footwork, fielding grounders to his right and throwing the ball to pitchers covering the bag. (The latter is an underrated skill, in my opinion. Watching Joyner in ’93 underscored just how valuable this is for first basemen.) My eyes tell me Hosmer is a quality defensive first baseman.

However, UZR disagrees. It hangs a -9.9 rating on our rookie. Worst in the AL. Ugh.

But… But… What about all those awesome scoops he makes at first? How can his UZR be so abysmal if he’s making all these sweet picks and saving valuable runs? Simple. UZR does not account for scoops at first. It’s just another out. (And before you decide to kill the messenger, remember this is just the way it is. I didn’t invent the system… I’m merely trying to shed some light.)

Line drives are similarly ignored. So, those great diving stabs we’ve seen Hosmer make? Not counted in UZR. The developer of this metric says snaring a line drive is more a luck factor than a skill factor. Not certain I agree with this. For sure, the infielder’s position counts big-time on a scorching liner, but if the fielder doesn’t have the reaction time, that catch won’t be made.

Another thing to remember is we’re dealing with a sample size of four months. The creators of UZR realize their system has limitations and stress that to get a portrait of “true” talent, you need to accumulate at least three years of data. Even then, there are players all over the game who have something like a +10 UZR one year, followed by a -10 UZR the next. What gives?

Adding to the Confusion

It might have been easier if Luis Mendoza had imploded in his two starts this September or if the same had happened to Everett Teaford.

Rightly or wrongly, we are more likely to believe a bad September is more indictative of a player’s future performance than a good September. If Mendoza had looked like the guy we saw early in 2010, then the Royals likely would have been ready to move on: freeing up a valuable 40 man roster spot this winter. As it is, Kansas City is virtually assured of keeping Mendoza over the winter and getting a look at him next spring. Same for Teaford.

That is a good thing, frankly, but it certainly does not make the job of Dayton Moore and Ned Yost any easier.

As good as Mendoza has looked in his two September starts, and as outstanding as he was all summer in AAA, one has to be somewhat skeptical of a major league pitcher who struck out just 4.3 batters per 9 innings in his two starts and walked 3.1 per 9 innings. It is possible to make a living doing that for a full season, but rare. As a frame of reference, Bruce Chen struck out 5.7 per 9 innings while walking at a slightly lower rate than Mendoza (2.9). Interestingly, Everett Teaford had the exact same strikeout and walk rates as Chen.

[SubGod22]

Melky hustles to reach 200-hit plateau

MINNEAPOLIS -- Melky Cabrera made it - 200 hits in a season for the first time in his career, becoming the sixth Royals player in history to reach that mark. And he had one to spare.

Cabrera got the milestone hit in the first inning of Monday night's 7-3 win, when he bounced a ball off home plate that was fielded by charging Twins shortstop Trevor Plouffe. Cabrera beat the throw to first base and was clapping his hands and beaming.

"I was very excited. I was very pleased with the job I did, and I was very happy that I reached that goal," Cabrera said. "It was kind of like a hustle play, but I'll take it."

I'm happy for the Melk-man. He's had a very good season. Now, I kinda hope the Royals trade him in the offseason. But if they don't, I'm not going to complain. He's still fairly young and if he can be this productive great. Maybe they test the waters this winter and if not, they hope for a good start to next season. Or they may try to trade Cain. You'd think one of them will be gone.

Paulino strong to the finish in Royals' win

MINNEAPOLIS -- In his previous outing, high pitch counts early and control problems resulted in a loss for Felipe Paulino. A few days later against Minnesota, there were no such issues.

Paulino was locked in early as the Royals used a four-run sixth inning en route to a 7-3 win over the Twins on Monday night at Target Field.

The right-hander went six innings and gave up three runs on six hits, while striking out nine and walking two in his final start of the season. Paulino finishes with a 4-6 record and 4.11 ERA, enjoying a breakthrough year when the Royals gave him a chance to start games.

"Really, really good stuff, great way to end the year for him," Royals manager Ned Yost said. "I'm happy for him. He got a second life here with us and he took full advantage of it."

Paulino was 0-4 with a 7.36 ERA with the Rockies before joining the Royals in May. Since then, he's pitched well enough to keep Kansas City in games, while flashing electric stuff and a penchant for strikeouts.

"I'm so happy. I really have an appreciation for the Royals, to bring me back, to give me an opportunity to start," Paulino said.

It's really nice to see Paulino finish strong. He had a pretty good year and looks like he could be in the middle of the rotation next year. Also nice to see Moose have a nice game and finish to the season. It's been a good month or so for the young man.

[SubGod22]

Royals not so grand after loss to Twins

Hosmer isn't dwelling on fine rookie numbers

MINNEAPOLIS -- Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer went 0-for-4 in Monday's 7-3 win over the Twins, but picked up an RBI to help his American League Rookie of the Year resume.

Despite missing over a month of the season, Hosmer led all qualifying rookies with a .295 batting average and 25 go-ahead RBIs entering Tuesday's action. His 152 hits are the most among AL rookies, as are his 66 runs and 42 multi-hit games.

Hosmer is also ranked second in total bases (242), doubles (27), walks (34) and extra-base hits (49), and was tied for second in RBIs (78). He also has 11 stolen bases.

I get the feeling he won't win, but you could definitely argue in his favor.

Butler happy with a supporting steal role

MINNEAPOLIS -- In the ninth inning of Monday's 7-3 win over the Twins, Billy Butler stood on second base and flashed a grin to the Royals dugout as he held up two fingers on his right hand.

Butler had just taken second base on the back end of a double steal, as Minnesota catcher Drew Butera threw to third base to try to nab Jarrod Dyson.

A steal for Dyson is nothing new. He entered Tuesday's contest with 11 stolen bases in just 24 games. For Butler though, it was his second steal of the season and just the third of his career.

[SubGod22]

Revisiting Hosmer's Case For ROY

It’s the final day of the regular season and the award ballots are due sometime before the first pitch of the postseason on Friday.

It’s time to revisit our offensive cast of nominees for the AL Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year award. If you’ll recall, last month I checked in with the rookies and decided my top choice would be Desmond Jennings with Dustin Ackley and Mike Carp second and third. Hosmer, was close to landing on my ballot, but was probably around the fourth or fifth best rookie.

I ended my post with this:

It’s possible Hosmer puts together a sweet September while his rivals falter and storms to the award. That would be ideal. There’s still plenty of baseball to be played…

Hmmm… Guess who had a killer September?

Time to revisit my table of rookie batters:

[SubGod22]

What Moose Means

I’ve written a lot about Mike Moustakas throughout the season. First, it was in spring training when there was talk that he might make the club. Then it was talking about how he was struggling in spring training and would need to be sent to AAA for a little while to get going. Then it was how he was struggling in AAA and might not see the big leagues until the second half. Then he got hot in AAA and the talk was when Moustakas would replace the Wilson Betemit and Mike Aviles duo at third base in the big leagues. Then he got here, homered in his second game and we thought we were on our way to a real masher in the lineup for the first time since probably Jermaine Dye. Then he slumped and he slumped and he continued to slump. All the time we thought that it couldn’t get that much worse, that he was on his way to snapping out of it. Then we started talking about if Moustakas should be sent to AAA for the rest of the year and start fresh in 2012. Then he started hitting but for very little power. Now, the full package has arrived.

His slugging percentage is still a woefully low .353, but he’s started to hit the ball with some authority. In a little more than half a season, he’s got 17 doubles, which is pretty good. The five homers need to be worked on, but if September is any indication, he’s starting to get there on those. And hey, he now has as many career homers at Target Field as Joe Mauer does. There was a lot of talk that Moustakas starts every level slow, but I don’t think that’s necessarily true. I mean, he did hit two homers in his first AA game and just never started hitting. And it’s not like his adjustment to AAA took too terribly long last season either. Plus, there’s a difference between starting slow and hitting .182/.237/.227 through almost 200 at bats. Since that time when Moustakas hit his lowest point of the season, he has hit .368/.404/.541. While I don’t think that’s sustainable for him, I think it’s important that he’s done this to both solidify his place on the Opening Day roster and to solidify the confidence of the fans. There’s something chilling about him hitting a home run and hearing the “MOOSE!” chant at Kauffman Stadium.

Of course, in September, Moustakas has started the power hitting that we expected from him. He’s hitting .333/.365/.543 with nine extra base hits in 20 games. Extrapolate that out to a full season and that’s 72 extra base hits, which I think we would all take. The thing that’s been encouraging to me is that he actually seems to have a much more disciplined approach at the plate than we were led to believe he had. The book on Moose is that he doesn’t walk much, but he also doesn’t strike out much for a power hitter, and that’s pretty much what I’ve seen from him since he started hitting again. He has struck out 51 times in 331 at bats, which is a pretty good ratio for a power hitter (and not too bad for anyone actually), but since hitting he has struck out 17 times in 141 plate appearances which means he is striking out in just 12% of his plate appearances. His walk rate is a little low at under 6%, but he just seems to be able to command the strike zone better than I expected. That’s one area where the stats don’t necessarily match the scout’s eye. Based on the numbers, Moustakas looks like he struggles with plate discipline due to not walking much, but aside from the types of pitches young players always struggle with, Moose has been pretty discerning at the plate in spite of taking few free passes.

And there's a great pic of Moose and Hos in the article :)

[RoyalShock]

Here's one to put in the crazy file . . .

Boston, faced with the possibility of a one-game play-in against the Rays for the wildcard, are looking at maybe adding a starting pitcher, namely Bruce Chen, to start that game. They would have to offer KC something in a trade and he would not be able to pitch in the playoffs.

Since they won't know until late tonight if a play-in game will be needed, they may end up acquiring a pitcher for a game they won't play.

Chen is scheduled to pitch tonight in KC's final game.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/09/chen-among-red-sox-targets-for-potential-tie-breaker.html

[SubGod22]

Definitely an interesting thought. Wonder what we could get in a deal like this.....

[ShockerFever]

Congrats to the Royals for avoiding the cellar.

[RoyalShock]

Definitely an interesting thought. Wonder what we could get in a deal like this.....

From KC's point-of-view, considering that Chen is a Type B FA, a recent compensation round pick (Boston has a couple of 2010 draftees who are trade-eligible) would be fair. If KC trades him, they can no longer offer him arbitration and receive a compensatory draft pick if he declines.

From Boston's standpoint, it's one game. Albeit a very important game. Teams trade good prospects all the time to improve their chances of making the playoffs. Well, if you knew you were one game away and could improve your chances in a trade, what's that worth?

[SubGod22]

The season ended with a loss. But the future looks good and I can't wait for next season to start. Spring Training will be fun and what they do or don't do over the winter will be interesting to follow.

Educational season concludes for rookies

[wsushox1]

Future is bright!!!

[RoyalShock]

KC fired pitching coach Bob McClure as well as their bench coach.

Good move getting rid of McClure. No opinion on the bench coach.

[SubGod22]

KC fired pitching coach Bob McClure as well as their bench coach.

Good move getting rid of McClure. No opinion on the bench coach.

As long as they keep Seitzer around. He's been doing one hell of a good job with these guys. I've often wondered how good McClure really was. I'm curious to see who they bring in to fill those spots.

[SubGod22]

Royals will enter 2012 with great expectations

KANSAS CITY -- The one prevailing and perhaps overly presumptuous assumption about the 2012 Royals is that their starting lineup is set.

The in-season invasion of first baseman Eric Hosmer, third baseman Mike Moustakas, second baseman Johnny Giavotella and catcher Salvador Perez, rookies all, meshed rather nicely among more veteran position players.

It was a trying year in the loss column, yet invigorating in terms of the future for manager Ned Yost.

The bottom half of the article was nice as well. They went position by position with the guys in the system and on the team that could be a factor next year.

Future bright for Royals after promising year

KANSAS CITY -- Strange to say about a Royals club that spent much of the season in last place, but it was a pretty good year.

Not in the win-loss column, although the Royals did escape the cellar to finish fourth in the American League Central. But this was a team that caught a wave of youth, recycled new blood and organizational promise to surf toward contention. Contention in the near future, it's believed.

Unlike teams of recent vintage, the 2011 edition of the Royals rarely seemed to be out of a game or lacking in enthusiasm or short of talent. There just wasn't quite enough yet to push the team over the top in a multitude of one-run decisions and extra-inning battles.