KC Royals - September

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Friday Notes

We’ve seen a lot of offense from the Royals over the past week, though, it was mostly concentrated in just a few games. I think that’s sort of what we can expect from a young team even into next season as we hope to see the Royals in contention. They’re going to finish in the top half of the American League in runs scored next year, I believe, but we might see something like 75% of the runs scored in 50% of the games. Actually, that’d be something interesting to look at to see what the average is per team. I’ll get right on that. As the season is winding down, it’s interesting to see who is beginning to look tired (the whole bullpen) and who seems to be getting stronger as the season goes on (Eric Hosmer). For all the talk that this is the first time a lot of these guys have played this long, most of the young guys were in the playoffs last season or on post season All-Star teams, so I think a lot of them have gone to at least mid-September before. Anyway, onto the notes:

Jockeying for Draft Position

On September 29, 2006, the Royals began a series with the first place Detroit Tigers. On that date, their record was 59-100 and they were two full games ahead of the second worst team in baseball in a position to get their second straight first overall draft pick. Of course, the Royals were playing for pride and swept the Detroit Tigers right out of first place and finished their year 62-100. The Tampa Bay Rays, the second worst team in baseball, got swept by the Cleveland Indians and finished the year 61-101 and received the first overall pick in the 2007 draft. At the time, I was so ecstatic that the Royals weren’t going to finish dead last. I remember prior to the season some people thinking the 2006 Royals might be one of the worst teams of all time, so I was pretty happy that they weren’t even the worst team in baseball.

Of course, with the first pick of the 2007 draft, the Rays took David Price. He is, of course, one of the very best pitchers in baseball now after having finished in the Cy Young Award race last season and is putting together an even better season this year in terms of his peripherals. The Royals, with the second overall pick took Mike Moustakas. Based on the current needs of the Royals, no matter how good Moose turns out, the Royals would be better off with David Price fronting their rotation instead of Moose hitting sixth in their lineup. I don’t want to get into the game of dominoes Price on the Royals could have caused, but there’s a very good chance that the Royals would have been a better team than they had been the last couple of years which would have caused Greinke to want to stay and then we’re looking at a very different situation. But that’s not the point of this. The point of this is to talk about the importance of draft position versus winning games in September.

The Royals were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention this week, and with that comes an entirely new way of playing baseball. Of course, the Royals had no shot at the playoffs after about mid-May, but the finality of the mathematical elimination can play with the heads of some young players. This current road trip is a great example of how difficult it can be as they went on the road to Oakland, a tema out of it, and begin a series tonight with the Mariners, a team way out of it. It’s hard to get up for these games that literally mean nothing. For a guy like Johnny Giavotella who is fighting for a job next year, it’s probably easy, but do you think Eric Hosmer has anything to worry about in terms of his job next season? I’m not saying he won’t play hard, but it’d be very easy for him to come to the park one of these games this weekend and not play his best game. Think about Billy Butler. The guy hasn’t played a meaningful game in August even, let alone September throughout his big league career.

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And His Name Is Spanish For "Savior".

Salvador Perez had quite a day.

In the first inning of yesterday’s tilt in Oakland, Perez set up to catch Johnny Giavotella’s relay throw, and the ball arrived milliseconds before Jemile Weeks plowed into him. Perez held onto the ball, and Weeks was out, but Perez was shook up on the play and seemed to end up with a welt behind his ear.

With two outs in the bottom of the seventh inning, Michael Taylor fouled a ball right back into Perez’s body. It’s not clear where the ball hit Perez, but it was clearly very painful – he needed about 30 seconds to compose himself before signaling that he was able to continue. Tim Collins finished the inning with a strikeout, but Perez looked so dinged up at that point that I fully expected Brayan Pena to pinch-hit for him in the top of the eighth.

Instead, Perez batted with two out, and after falling behind 0-2, worked the count back to 2-2. He then went with a fastball on the outside corner at the knees, lining it into right field for a clean single. This kept his batting average above .300 since joining the Royals last month.

It was, as you probably know, the Royals’ first hit of the game.

Salvador Perez wasn’t supposed to be doing this. He hit .290 with seven home runs last year, and he did that in high-A Wilmington. He was one of my favorite prospects in the system, and the fact that he ranked somewhere between 17th and 20th in the organization was a testament to how deep the farm system was – but still, he wasn’t supposed to be here.

Perez hit .283/.329/.427 for Northwest Arkansas this year before he was promoted to Omaha in late July. In 12 games for the Storm Chasers, he hit .333/.347/.500, and here he is. He wasn’t supposed to be here. Alone among the Royals prospects to debut this year, he was being rushed. And as recently as two weeks ago, you could argue that he didn’t deserve to be in the majors. In his first 12 games in the major leagues, he hit .227/.271/.318.

Since then, he’s hit .381. In his brief, 23-game major-league career, Salvador Perez is hitting .302/.337/.430, while showing excellent defensive skills and – as he showed yesterday – a catcher’s toughness. And he’s just 21 years old. He’ll still be 21 years old when next season begins.

Maybe that doesn’t sound all that impressive to you. It’s only 23 games and 92 plate appearances, and batting average is subject to so many fluctuations that a .300 average is meaningless in a small sample size. (I actually coined Jazayerli’s Law of Backup Catchers sometime in the last century to describe this phenomenon: Any player can hit .300 in a small number of at-bats. Remember Hector Ortiz?)

Still, Salvador Perez is hitting .300. And he is 21 years old. And – at the risk of being mercilessly mocked for creating a pointless and misleading list – here is the list of every catcher (defined as someone who caught in 70% of his games played) in major-league history who 1) batted 75 or more times and 2) hit .300 or better in his age 21 season. (No catcher has hit .300 or better at age 20 or younger.)

It’s not a long list.

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Teaford makes rotation bid with win

SEATTLE -- Everett Teaford threw his left arm into the ring for the 2012 Royals rotation with a strong performance on Sunday.

Teaford, in his first Major League start, pitched five shutout innings and got the victory as the Royals defeated the Seattle Mariners, 2-1, to split the four-game series at Safeco Field. The Royals finished their trip, which began at Oakland, with a 4-3 record.

A 27-year-old rookie, Teaford got his first start (after 23 relief outings) in place of fellow lefty Danny Duffy, who was shut down for the season. It was an impressive showing for Teaford, who had made 99 Minor League starts but none since last April. He held the Mariners to three hits, all singles, and rang up five strikeouts, three in his last inning, with one walk.

But Teaford didn't want to make too much of it.

"One start, anybody can be on and one start, anybody can be horrible," he said. "So I don't necessarily think today makes me the next coming of Tom Glavine just because I won one start."

Maybe not, but manager Ned Yost said Teaford likely would get another start before the season is over and figure in the mix next February at Surprise, Ariz.

"When we come to Spring Training next year, he'll definitely get a look as a starter from me," Yost said.

The crowd of 20,951 included Jim Teaford, Everett's father who flew in from a conference he was attending in New Orleans for the occasion.

"To have your 100th start be your first big-league start and the first big league win of your career," Teaford said. "My dad was here and that was awesome to have him in town. You can't write up a better story than today."

Teaford threw 73 pitches. I'd love to see him get a couple more starts and maintain his effectiveness.

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And Yes, They Played Baseball This Weekend

I have a hunch it was a pretty busy weekend for all of us. College football was in full swing, the NFL started up and it was just about perfect weather just about everywhere in the Midwest. On a far more important note, it was the 10th anniversary of 9/11, which took up at least a few hours of most everyone’s weekend.

Along the way, the Royals were still playing baseball: rallying from an 0-2 start against Seattle to win the final two games of the series. A split with a team sporting a virtually identical poor record is not exactly front page news, particularly on a weekend like this past one.

It’s that time of year, folks. The time when local sports radio might give you twenty minutes of Royals’ talk per show, if you’re lucky. When the only baseball highlights (unless you can tolerate the ridiculous ‘look at how lively and funny we are’ Baseball Tonight show) revolve around teams that, you know, are still playing for something. Short of Alcides Escobar catching a grounder in his hat and then drop kicking it to Eric Hosmer for the out, you won’t see a Royals’ highlight on any national media outlet until sometime next year. Heck, you might not see many on any of the Kansas City stations!

I will have to admit that I paid minimal attention to the Seattle series myself. We had a huge airshow up here in Lincoln (Blue Angels, baby!), the Huskers played at night, the deck had to be stained and Mom gave me an extra half hour each night before having to return to the basement. All that said, the Royals did do some good things over the weekend:

Definitely some good things happening in KC. At least on the Blue side of Truman...

The Importance of Fourth Place- Getting out of the basement

It’s been a long time since the Royals finished in either first or second place. By my count, the last finish above third place for the Royals was in 1995 when they finished in second place behind the juggernaut Cleveland Indians. That year, the Royals went a less than outstanding 70-74 and were 30 games back, but they still finished in second place. I remember a time when it was a point of pride within the Royals organization that they had never finished in last place in their division. That ended the very year following their highest finish of the last 20. They finished in last in the American League Central with an almost respectable 75-86 record. I think it says more about the last 15 years than about the actual record that I think of 75-86 as not so bad. This year, the Royals have moved two games ahead of the last place Minnesota Twins with just a couple of weeks left to play. And to add to the drama, the Twins come to town tomorrow for a two-game set.

According to the great Ricky Bobby, if you’re not first, you’re last. And that makes some sense when it comes to the standings in the Central division. If you’re not making the playoffs, then it doesn’t really matter where you finish. For a team who has finished last eight times in the last 15 seasons since ending their streak of never finishing last, I’m not sure that’s entirely the case. Finishing ahead of somebody, anybody, in the division would be a good building block moving forward. I’m not sitting here and saying that if the Royals finish in fourth place that they should consider the year a success. They shouldn’t. Losing more games than you win for the eighth straight year and for the 16th time in 17 years is not a recipe for a winning season. Still, rebuilding a winning organization starts with small victories and finishing in fourth place with the youngest team in baseball constitutes a small victory.

I think it probably means more to the fans than the players, though. Maybe I’m in the minority here, but I absolutely despise the Twins. I hate that they cried small market for so many years when they’re in the top half of markets in the United States. I hated the Metrodome where I was sure the organization was cheating. And I hate the fact that their fans not only travel to Kauffman Stadium but are rude idiots while they are here. I think I’ve mentioned stadium etiquette before, so it might be a bigger deal to me than it should be, but it drives me nuts when fans of visiting teams come to your stadium and talk trash. It drives me even more nuts when they’re stupid about it. A quick aside about Twins fans. There was a game in 2003 when the Royals were in first place and were beating the Twins. I stood up to use the restroom or get food or something and a Twins fan asked me if I was leaving because I couldn’t take the losing anymore. Remember, the Royals were both winning the game and in first place at the time.

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And this is why so many will follow and pull for this guy as long as he plays. For Giavotella, hard work runs in his family

"I think not as much [that it's] little-man syndrome," Royals pitcher Everett Teaford said about Giavotella. "More like back against the wall. 'No one really believes in me. I've got to go out and prove myself everywhere I go, and no matter what I do, I'm going to have doubters.' Even if he doesn't, he still feels he does, and I think that drives him."

Teaford roomed with Giavotella in Triple-A. The reliever was back and forth between Kansas City and Omaha a lot this summer, and Gio was always eager for some kind of advice when Teaford was back in town.

"When I would come up and down, he would always ask me -- and I wish I had a better answer -- 'What do I need to do to get up there? What kind of things do you see up there that I don't do?'" Teaford said. "And this is at 11:30 at night. I'm like, 'Dude, I'm ready to go to bed.' And this guy's still thinking of ways where he can better his game."

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Making the Royals Contenders - Part 3

In part 1 of this series, I looked at the offense and came to the conclusion that it’s not the teams biggest problem, but rather it’s their inability to prevent runs. In part 2 I looked at the defense and found it to be missing some pieces but again not a huge problem. That leaves us with the pitching. This isn’t really a shocking conclusion. We all knew it was leading us there, but I think it’s instructive and helpful to get there step-by-step. The pitching neatly breaks up into two distinct parts: starting and relief. Today we’ll focus on relief.

Here is a chart showing the Royal relieves ERA and the league rank for the past few years.

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Yost pleased with late-season work ethic

KANSAS CITY -- Manager Ned Yost likes the attitude his players are demonstrating as they head into the final weeks of the season.

Yost got a good look at it on Tuesday when the Royals held early afternoon batting practice at Kauffman Stadium before their game against the Twins.

"There's a mindset that goes with playing deep into September and October. And it just shows you our team mindset," Yost said. "Early hitting is never mandatory, it's for anyone who wants to hit early ... but we basically had the whole team out there for early hitting. And we want to continue to develop that mindset that you keep going, you keep pushing, you keep playing hard, because there's going to come a time soon when we're going to have to push through September and deep into October."

Teaford gets two more starts; Francis one

KANSAS CITY -- Left-hander Everett Teaford will get two more starts for the Royals after notching his first big league victory on Sunday at Seattle.

Teaford will pitch on Saturday against the Chicago White Sox and again against them on Sept. 25 at Chicago.

Manager Ned Yost noted that, because of two open dates, Teaford will get six days and then seven days between his starts. That doesn't bother Teaford who, between his last start in April for Triple-A Omaha and his first on Sunday for the Royals, got about four months between starts.

Chen's stellar effort helps Royals top Twins

KANSAS CITY -- Before Tuesday night's game, Royals manager Ned Yost was asked if he'd like to see pitcher Bruce Chen, a potential free agent, back next season. Short answer: yes.

Chen showed good reason for such an endorsement by holding Minnesota to two hits in eight innings of the Royals' 4-0 victory over the Twins as 25,253 fans enjoyed a pleasantly breezy evening at Kauffman Stadium. His 12-hit support included home runs by Mike Moustakas and Alex Gordon.

And the veteran left-hander, asked about staying, also answered yes.

"Everyone wants to play for a winning team and why go somewhere else if I believe we can win," Chen said. "So definitely, I'd like to be back and be a part of this team and hopefully win some championships."

Chen, who retired the last 12 batters he faced -- thanks to a superb running catch by center fielder Melky Cabrera -- was within three outs of only his second career shutout. But after throwing a season-high 119 pitches, Chen was relieved by Louis Coleman, who hadn't pitched in 11 days.

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Butler is Royals' nominee for Clemente Award

Royals open 2012 home slate against Indians - And there's a chance that we may see Greinke in KC

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Farewell, Francis

The Royals announced they will shut down starter Jeff Francis after his next start on Thursday. Francis, who is making $2 million this year, will finish the season with somewhere in the neighborhood of 180 innings. That represents the most work for Francis since he topped 215 innings back in 2007.

At the same time, the club also let it be known that Everett Teaford will make two more starts before he’s finished for the season. His final start will be on September 25 at Chicago, three days before the end of the season.

Back to Francis… At $2 million the left-hander provided the Royals with the following line (current through Tuesday):

30 starts, 177 IP, 4.88 ERA, 1.429 WHIP, 4.5 SO/9, 1.9 BB/9, 4.27 xFIP

The lack of walks is a delight. The lack of strikeouts is a problem. But that’s the way Francis has always pitched. Since his injury, he’s sped up the evolution to control pitcher.

Remember back to those days when the mantra for Royals pitchers was “pitch to contact?” Let’s just say Tony Muser and Brent Strom would have loved Jeff Francis. Over 80% of all plate appearances ended with the ball in play. Additionally, 10% of all plate appearances, batters went for extra bases. Although there’s no shame in his 1.0 HR/9.

His xFIP may indicate there’s a level of bad luck on his side, but the truth is, Francis just isn’t the kind of pitcher who can go out and make success for himself on a regular basis. He’s more likely to get lit up than to dominate in one start. Although, to be fair, he’s really more likely to pitch a solid game. Maybe a quality start, maybe not. (He had 15 quality starts this year for the Royals, a rate of 50%.) It seems difficult to imagine over the course of a full season of starts that Francis could give his team enough for them to win over half their games. But he gives you a chance, and for a team like the Royals, that’s what it’s about.

Francis wasn’t here to be a front line starter, or even a number two or three guy. He was here to eat innings. That’s kind of a gutsy move to make for a player with a pretty serious shoulder history. Even though the Royals could only win nine of his 30 starts, Francis did pretty much what the Royals asked… He took the ball every fifth day and usually went until the sixth inning. On this team, with this rotation, that’s something.

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Yost wants Moustakas to relax more at plate

KANSAS CITY -- The long gap between home runs for Royals rookie Mike Moustakas wasn't for lack of trying.

In short, manager Ned Yost suggests that Moustakas was trying too hard to hit home runs, and that doesn't work. Let Yost tell a story from when he was a player with Milwaukee and was approached by one of his coaches, the noted power hitter Frank Howard:

"Frank Howard told me this one time, and it didn't make sense until a couple of years later," Yost said. "He said, 'Ned, can you hit 30 home runs without trying?' I said, 'No.' And he said, 'Well, quit trying!' And he was right. Home run hitting comes naturally. You don't try to hit home runs. And the minute you try to hit home runs, you're dead at this level."

Moustakas is a rookie who started out rather slowly but, after three hits in Wednesday's 7-3 win over the Twins, had his average up to .238 after a season-low mark of .182 on Aug. 16. In 25 games since, he's hit .354 (34-for-96) with 14 RBIs, eight doubles and, of course, the home run.

"It's a process," Yost said. "You've got to learn how to hit first, and then power comes second."

Closer Soria has strained right hamstring

KANSAS CITY -- Closer Joakim Soria wasn't warming up in the Royals' bullpen during a ninth-inning crisis on Wednesday, and there was good reason.

Soria has a strained right hamstring, manager Ned Yost revealed after the Royals' 7-3 victory over the Minnesota Twins. The injury was characterized as "nothing serious" by Yost, and Soria agreed.

The injury occurred when Soria was in the midst of a nine-pitch battle against ex-Royals catcher Miguel Olivo last Sunday at Seattle. Olivo fouled off five pitches before Soria finally retired him on a fly ball to left for the final out of the Royals' 2-1 win

Ill Hochevar, offense help KC to fourth straight

KANSAS CITY -- Luke Hochevar hid his feelings well. Who could tell that the Royals' starter had a lot of flu and little energy?

Not the Minnesota Twins, who did little against Hochevar in his six innings of sick leave on Wednesday afternoon as he pitched the Royals to a 7-3 victory at cool, windy Kauffman Stadium.

"Hoch did a great job," Royals manager Ned Yost said. "He's been battling the flu. He got the flu yesterday and had a low-grade fever. After the sixth inning his tank was empty, he was done."

Hochevar threw 88 pitches and gave up just five hits, two walks and two runs despite his illness. He said that he felt bad when the team was flying back from Seattle on Sunday, but resolved not to miss his 31st start.

"I really didn't feel like I had a lot of energy, but what it comes down to is not how you feel, but how you execute," Hochevar said. "And I just went out and tried to execute good pitches. I didn't have the energy I usually have. My body just felt dead and tired, but it's part of it sometimes."

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Going in Opposite Directions….buh bye Twinks….circle this!

I had the pleasure of attending Tuesday night’s game versus the Twins, and you really shouldn’t take a ton away from September baseball, but if last night was any indication the Royals and Twins are moving in opposite directions. I think that people assume I dislike Bruce Chen based on some comments that I’ve made about him on both message boards and in this blog, but I don’t dislike Bruce Chen. I just don’t think he deserves a multi-year deal from anyone, especially the Royals. That said, when Bruce Chen absolutely dominates you the way that he did last night, there are definitely some problems with your team. Dayton Moore often cites the Twins as an organization he wants to model the Royals after. That’s great because I would kill for their success after the last 26 years, but if he’s modeling after the Twins, I hope he stopped taking notes before this season.

Basically, the Twins were built around two superstar players. There’s some talk around the interwebs that it’s two stars and seven scrubs, but that’s just not true. I don’t think Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, Jason Kubel, a very strong bullpen and a solid starting staff constitutes a bunch of scrubs beyond Mauer and Morneau. The Twins had a solid roster, though Ron Gardenhire had too much of an infatuation for the little guy who didn’t do much, but all managers seem to have that issue. The problem with the way the Twins were built is that they didn’t have much depth and still don’t have much depth. So when a season comes where just about everything that can go wrong does go wrong, then you have a situation where they’re sitting in last place and 26 games out of first place with two weeks to go in the season.

The Twins won 94 games last year and returned essentially the same team with the hope that they’d have a healthy Justin Morneau back. Even if they didn’t, they were able to maintain without him for the second half last year, so I think they assumed they’d be okay either way. With Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker anchoring the pitching staff and closer Joe Nathan returning, the Twins had to be the favorites heading into the 2011 season. Then everything collapsed as injuries and ineffectiveness from the pitching staff made the season a complete mess. In the middle, the Twins seemed to rebound and get back in the race, but they just couldn’t hold on with a roster made up of guys like Ben Revere and Trevor Plouffe (who I think will be good one day).

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I've been out of town and the Royals have been playing well lately. It's September, so I'm not going to make too much of that. But it's fun.

Outfielders accomplish Major League first

KANSAS CITY -- Center fielder Melky Cabrera added another level of distinction to the Royals' outfield achievements.

Cabrera rapped his 40th double as an outfielder on Thursday night -- he has one as a DH -- to make it a triumvirate of doubles hitters. Left fielder Alex Gordon and right fielder Jeff Francoeur each have 45 doubles this season.

"That's the first time in the history of the game that three outfielders have 40-plus doubles and add that to the fact that the same outfield is leading all of baseball in assists [50], that's a pretty special group," manager Ned Yost said.

The OF has had a heck of a year.
Innings high, Hochevar is done for season

KANSAS CITY -- Luke Hochevar, the Royals' No. 1 starter, won't make his last two starts.

Manager Ned Yost made the announcement on Thursday, Hochevar's 28th birthday, because he believes the tall right-hander has pitched enough innings (198) in his 31 starts.

"Does he feel strong? Is he healthy? Yeah," Yost said. "Can he finish his last two starts? Yeah, he wants to. But, to me, it just doesn't make any sense to continue to push the innings thing."

He's had a good season. I look forward to seeing what he does next year. Hopefully, he's taken that next step towards being a top of the rotation type.
Mendoza summoned to start against Tigers

KANSAS CITY -- Now that Omaha's Storm Chasers have won the Pacific Coast League championship, they'll share their top pitcher with the Royals.

Right-hander Luis Mendoza will be sent to Kansas City and start Tuesday night's game against the Detroit Tigers, the Royals announced on Saturday night.

The Royals decided to take a two-game look at Mendoza on the Major League level rather than have him pitch for Omaha in Tuesday night's Triple-A National Championship Game at Albuquerque, N.M. The Storm Chasers will play the Columbus Clippers, top farm club of the Cleveland Indians and winner of the International League title

I'm not sure he's as good as some of his numbers indicate. But he had a heck of a year and earned a look.
Gordon living up to pedigree with breakout year

KANSAS CITY -- In 2010, there were questions about Alex Gordon.

They weren't necessarily about his talent. He proved that as a standout at the University of Nebraska. The doubts weren't about his work ethic -- baseball players come in all shapes and sizes, and their bodies don't necessarily look the part. Plus, Gordon's lean physique practically screams, "I'm a pro athlete."

No, the questions were more about whether the third baseman-turned-left fielder could put it together after being demoted to Triple-A. Could he ever come close to living up to the hype he generated as the No. 2 overall selection by the Royals in the 2005 First-Year Player Draft?

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Paying for Starters

I personally have spent much of the last couple of months writing about the Royals’ young position players and, to a lesser extent, about their rookie laden bullpen. The reason is quite simple: after years of projecting and theorizing about ifs and buts and whats and whens, we can actually look at the lineup that takes the field every night and know that ‘next year’ applies most if not all of them.

Seriously, when was the last time you watched a Royals’ team play in August and September and knew that basically the same team was going to take the field again in 2012….and be generally happy about it?

Ditto for the bullpen. Sure, there might be/will be some changes in the pen, but the core group will be back. Again, not only will they be back, but the thought of Coleman-Holland-Soria to finish out games in 2012 makes me happy.

So, long story to nowhere, but that is why I have spent a lot of time discussing the above. It is a real life, real time topic as opposed to the years of prospect watching and trade scenario (fun as it may be) fantasizing that was all we had as Royals’ fans to keep us marginally sane.

The starting rotation, however, throws us back into more theory than fact. We think Felipe Paulino is a true hidden gem: a strikeout pitcher with good control, who finally blossomed. We think Danny Duffy showed enough promise, enough stuff, as a rookie to progress into at least a middle of the rotation starter. While no one believes Luke Hochevar will ever justify his overall number one pick status, we think that his post All-Star break performance might indicate that he is ready to be a solid number three/four type starter as well.

Do three ‘thinks’ and a ‘might’ equal league average 2-3-4 starters? Or is it more like 3-4-5 starters?

It's interesting. Hard to imagine giving up 4 or 5 prospects for one pitcher though. Dayton would have to be pretty sure of himself and the team to make that move.
The Atomic Slider

So Luke Hochevar has become a fairly decent pitcher in the second half, hasn’t he? Don’t believe me… Believe the splits:

[Insert Graph Here]

Wow.

There’s a bunch that jumps out from that table. He’s shaved two whole runs off his ERA. He’s striking out three more batters per nine innings. He’s cut down on his base runners. And he’s done it all while walking the batters as roughly the same rate as before.

(WPA is Win Probability Added. It’s a cumulative number and is basically how many wins a player adds over the course of the season given his performance against “average” teams. Pitching God Roy Halladay is roughly worth 4.5 wins this season for the Phillies.)

Well done, Hochevar. Well done.

We know Hochevar. We’ve followed him since the Royals made him the number one overall (number one!) draft pick back in 2006. This run of quality outings is not only unprecedented, it’s entirely unexpected. He’s never, ever put together a string of starts like this. We saw it early in the season in a microcosmic fashion, when he could give five or six really strong innings… And then implode so spectacularly it rivaled one of those Sunday morning stadium demolitions (thinking Kingdome) for the fallout.

If Hoch can keep this up, he's at least a number 2 or 3 starter. I like it.
Memories of 2008

Even with yesterday’s loss to the White Sox, which ended a seven game winning streak, the Kansas City Royals still own an impressive 11-6 record in the month of September. It has been a fun month to be sure. This is a young team, playing well and hopefully positioning itself for better things in 2012.

Of course, we would not be Royals’ fans if a cynical part of us did not remember that the 2008 Royals went 18-8 in September and led many of us, including GM Dayton Moore, to believe that the 2009 team was ready to contend for the division title.

On September 18th, 2008 the Royals blasted Seattle 12-0 for the seventh consecutive win. Somewhat coincidentally, that streak would be ended by the White Sox the next day, but the Royals would go on to win six of their final eight games to finish a promising 75-87. Back on that September day in 2008, then manager Trey Hillman used this lineup:

David DeJesus, LF
Mike Aviles, SS
Jose Guillen, DH
Ryan Shealy, 1B
Mark Teahen, RF
Miguel Olivo, C
Alex Gordon, 3B
Alberto Callaspo, 2B
Mitch Maier, CF
Zack Greinke, P

I didn't need to be reminded of that.
Making the Royals Contenders - Part 4

In the first three parts of this series, I made the case that the offense, the defense and the relief pitching are all at least close to being contention level. While they are not perfect, they have young players who could show improvement and are at a level where they can compete in the American League Central. The one major component remaining is the starting pitching. Surprise! Look, I know that this isn’t a revelation to anyone, but it’s helpful to go step-by-step in these breakdowns. So let’s take a look at the starting pitching.

First here are some stats from 2011 indicating where the team stands this season in starting pitching:

I believe we can count on Hochevar, Duffy and Paulino to be 2-4 types. Monty has the potential to be an ace but isn't there yet. Teaford has looked good in his few chances, but is more of a 3-5 type. I still believe Mendoza is an end of the rotation type at best. Not sure about Mazzaro. Crow has to improve his other pitches.

Even if we don't have a true number 1 guy. If we could have 3, 2-3 types we could be alright if the offense continues to move forward. I believe we have at least one in Hochevar. Duffy could be that. Paulino looks like that, but can he continue to be effective despite his track record? If they bring in anybody, I think I'd lean towards a veteran middle of the rotation type. Maybe a guy who could project better but hasn't quite been there. Someone who could turn into a 2. They don't need a back of the rotation type added and I'm just not sure they're ready to trade too much of the farm away from an ace.

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Light went on for Royals' Mendoza this year

KANSAS CITY -- Luis Mendoza made his first start for the Royals on Tuesday and his first big league appearance in 2011.

Mendoza was named the Pacific Coast League Pitcher of the Year with Triple-A Omaha, going 12-5 in the regular season with a 2.18 ERA. Royals reliever Jesse Chavez got to see Mendoza a lot this season while they were Omaha teammates and offered this scouting report.

"Good command, changes speeds, keeps the ball down," Chavez said. "I think he's really learned how to attack the weaknesses of the hitters throughout an at-bat, rather than taking two times through the lineup to get it."

Maybe I'm wrong.... I'd love to be wrong and see Mendoza step up and take a spot in the rotation if he can be this effective. I believe he'll get one more start.
Maier commemorates pitching performance

KANSAS CITY -- Royals outfielder Mitch Maier had a new framed display sitting by his locker in the clubhouse on Tuesday, commemorating his Major League pitching debut back on July 26 against the Red Sox.

Maier pitched the eighth inning of that 13-9 loss, and he was the only one out of five pitchers Kansas City used that night to not allow a run.

The display featured a ball from the game, a photo of Maier on the mound, two ticket stubs, the lineup card from the game, as well as a broken bat

This one just made me smile. I like Mitch. I wish him luck wherever he ends up.
Cain among half-dozen Royals callups

KANSAS CITY -- The Royals announced that they were calling up six players following their 10-2 win over the Tigers on Tuesday night.

Pitchers Vin Mazzaro and Sean O'Sullivan, outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson and catcher Manny Pina were called up from Triple-A Omaha, which lost, 8-3, in the Triple-A championship game against Columbus. The contract of pitcher Kelvin Herrera will also be selected by the Royals.

Cain was one of three players the club acquired from the Brewers for Zack Greinke and Yuniesky Betancourt in the offseason. A 17th-round pick in the 2004 First-Year Player Draft, Cain hit .312 with 16 homers and 16 steals with Omaha. He had a substantial callup last season, when he took 147 at-bats with the Brewers, hitting .306 with a homer

I'd like to see Cain get a few games in and hope that Mazzaro starts next week over SOS.
Offensive surge could be preview of 2012

KANSAS CITY -- The Royals had a season-high seven-game win streak snapped on Sunday, but the stretch was a good sign for the team as the season comes to a close.

"That little winning streak we had, we played great baseball that whole streak," third baseman Mike Moustakas said prior to Tuesday's game. "As a team, pitching, hitting, defense, we played great baseball. You can't really take anything away from the fact that we went out there and we played hard and got it done."

The streak matched the longest by the Royals since they won seven straight Sept. 13-18, 2008. Kansas City quickly got back in the habit with a 10-2 win over Detroit on Tuesday

It is good to see the youngsters finishing strong.
Hosmer's time: Five hits fuel Royals' rout

KANSAS CITY -- Luis Mendoza was the story heading into Tuesday night's contest against the Tigers, but like so many other times this season, the game turned into The Eric Hosmer Show.

The rookie went 5-for-5 with a key three-run homer, leading red-hot Kansas City to a 10-2 win over Detroit at Kauffman Stadium.

Hosmer became the 39th Royal to post five or more hits in a game and the first to do it since Billy Butler on July 27, 2008, against the Orioles. He's also the sixth Kansas City rookie to have five or more hits in a game.

"I couldn't remember the last time that happened [to me]," Hosmer said. "It felt good tonight to go out there, especially to do it at home in front of all these fans, especially on these last two days we're playing at the 'K.' It feels like a different energy out there with them, you can sense the excitement and you can sense the excitement in here, too, that we've been on a hot streak as of late."

Hos is a special player. He's a blast to watch!

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September Bliss

What a game, what a game…

Billy Butler is a late scratch because of the flu, so the number three hitter is Eric Hosmer. All The Hos does is go 5-5 with an opposite field BOMB, putting the finishing touches on a six-run fourth inning.

I tweeted this at the time, but it bears repeating… Opposite field power in a young player is rare. And it’s usually a harbinger of a productive career. Courtesy of Hit Tracker, here are the landing spots of Hosmer’s home runs.

[Chart shown here]

For simplicity, I would slice the field into thirds at the 105 mark and the 75 mark. That would give The Hos four home runs to left (last night’s blast isn’t charted here), six to center and eight to right. This power to the opposite field is something to get really excited about. I’ll break all this down in a later post, but it’s safe to say we have a beast on our hands.

Tuesday’s game was the kind of game I will watch this winter, to warm up against the chill of a few months without baseball. It was that good.

For all the warm, fuzzy feelings I have over this game, I still can’t get past the fact the Royals like Luis Mendoza. His Omaha performance was aided by a .268 BABIP and a 75% strand rate. With a 1.5 SO/BB ratio, there’s just no way he’s going to duplicate his performance in the majors. Yet GMDM is worried he has another Humber Situation (where he’ll release Mendoza and he’ll hook up with another team and find success.) I think that’s just a long shot. More on the rotation in a moment.

Watching these young players over the second half of the season has been a blast. April, 2012 is a long way away… But Opening Day can’t get here fast enough.

Meanwhile, a couple of interesting comments on Tuesday from the Dayton Moore chat session with the Kansas City Star…

There's definitely reasons to be hopefull about next season. Not sure Mendoza is one of them although he did show fairly well last night. I would have liked to seen Cain get more action and who Herrera replaces will be interesting. I like what we have going into next year.