KC Royals - August

[SubGod22]

I'm also going to guess that they'll play Pena at third before Getz. Getz is still an average 2B at best and a below average hitter. If he can't find someplace to start, I doubt he'll be around much longer. He's too limited in range and arm strength to be somebody's utility guy.

He won't be in KC next year.

[SubGod22]

Missing By ‘That Much’

The Royals played three consecutive one run games this past weekend, losing two of them. That has become a common theme for this particular team during 2011 as they have now played 49 games decided by one run: only the Angels, among American League teams, have played in as many. While there are several teams in the National League that have played as many or more one-run games than the Royals, the game over there is a little different. So, we’ll limit our discussion to the junior circuit for now.

In playing the most one-run games as anyone in the league, the Royals have also LOST more of those games than anyone. Currently, Kansas City holds a 21-28 record in such contests the next closest teams to below the .500 mark are Oakland (17-22) and, suprisingly, Texas (16-21).

The contenders, are a bit of a mixed bag when it comes to the one-run game. Check out the records of those teams over .500:

Boston 17-12
New York 15-18
Tampa 22-16
Detroit 21-15
Cleveland 22-23
Texas 16-21
Los Angeles 25-24
It might be a stretch at this point to consider the Indians a contender, so if you kick them out of the group and decide the Angels are just an outlier, what starts to come to light is not that good teams win more one-run games, but instead that good teams don’t play as many one-run games. That was not completely true in 2010, but was in 2009 and for the most part in 2008 as well (although the Angels, who won 100 games in 08 still played in an above average number of one-run contests).

[SubGod22]

Water Cooler Talk: Dayton Moore and the search for Starting Pitching (starring Royals prospects)

For awhile now I’ve been saying that the Royals are probably a couple of good starting pitchers away from contending in the American League Central. Part of that is because the American League Central is somewhat weak and part of that is that the Royals actually have a lot of talent for the first time in quite some time. The key point to my statement is that they need two good pitchers, not just any two pitchers and not two reclamation projects. I suggested a few weeks ago on my old blog that the Royals do what they can to go after Jeremy Guthrie of the Orioles and Scott Baker of the Twins. Those two aren’t the big name, flashy pitchers that would excite the fans, but I thought they’d be a huge help to the Royals rotation. Since I made that suggestion, Guthrie has struggled somewhat, but Baker remains a bona fide number two starter who would masquerade as an ace in the Royals rotation.

All that said, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star reported that Dayton Moore is now willing to trade prospects for an ace or a number two type starter this offseason. I love the strategy of trading some of the talent for big league talent. You build a farm system for two reasons. One is to put talented players on the field at the big league level and the other is to trade those talented players for players who you can put on the field at the big league level. The best general managers know which prospects to trade and which ones to hold on to and they end up very successful with a mix of home grown talent and acquired talent. For a team like the Royals, a trade is really the most likely way to acquire top end talent because they will struggle to compete on the free agent market for the top tier of players.

When I read that article, the first name I thought of outside of the two mentioned above was Chad Billingsley. He has steadily seen his K rate drop, so that would be reason for concern, but he’s still a legitimate 3.50 ERA type pitcher who can still strike out over seven per nine innings which puts him in rarified air in the Royals rotation. The nice thing about Billingsley is that if the Royals can put together a package to acquire him and deal with the finances of owing him $35 million over the next three years, they’d probably be able to acquire him and another top end starter without having to gut the farm system. The nice thing about the Royals farm system is that there are still six players from Baseabll America’s preseason top 100 list that are still in the minors in spite of the graduation of players to the big leagues. There’s plenty in the pot to choose who gets traded and still have a stable of prospects to fill in as necessary. Hypothetically, let’s say the Royals trade one of their top ten prospects and two from the 10-20 range for Billingsley. This is more likely the longer the Dodgers go with uncertain ownership.

He's got a point about the Farm being so loaded with talent that trading some away for SP help isn't a bad idea. As long as Dayton is smart about who is traded and how much. It does sound like Wil Myers may be involved in just about any trade involving a front of the rotation pitcher. If that's the plan, then maybe Frenchy signing a deal makes some sense. I'm guessing that Cain will be traded as well but could be wrong.

[SubGod22]

Chen, Moustakas assemble Royals' victory

CLEVELAND -- Bruce Chen has been so great in August that Royals manager Ned Yost was groping for superlatives.

"Break out the Thesaurus," Yost said.

Chen won his fifth consecutive start this month as the Royals downed the Indians, 2-1, on Sunday while 27,908 fans watched at Progressive Field. Chen improved his career record to 19-9 in August and, since joining the Royals, stands 5-0 against the Indians.

"He's been lights out," said teammate Mike Moustakas, who drove in the winning run. "He's keeping us on our toes and them on their heels."

It's looking like maybe Moose has finally adjusted and is figuring things out. How he does over the next month will say a lot. I'll feel much better about next year if he continues to hit the rest of the way.

[shockmonster]

Getz may not be with the Royals next year but he's been a pro prospect since he played in the futures game with the Sox 4-5 years ago. He was the Sox starter two years ago before he came to the Royals. He has hit just above or just below 250 for the past 3 years. He's had 25stolen bases the past 3 years and he doesn't make many errors. You underestimate him. He was an all state football and baseball player in Michigan.

He'll hang on at the AAA and major level for the next 4-5 years and be a solid back up and replacement if players are hurt and make 500k per year. You act like solid, proven major league baseball players grow on trees.

[SubGod22]

He doesn't make a lot of errors because he can't get to a lot of balls that most would. He's also slower on the turn than most at 2B.

IF he can find a place that is lacking at 2nd than he could play in the majors. I'd bet he'll spend the majority of his time in AAA for the remainder of his career. He's a below average player. He's not a threat at the plate. His range is lacking. His arm is lacking. I will give you that he's a threat to steal if he gets on base. And it's a good thing he can because that's about the only way he's getting past first without somebody hitting him there.

[shockmonster]

I have seen him get to some hard to reach balls especially to his right. Some of the blogs are critical of his abilities but I've also read newspaper articles about Yost going to him in late innings to relieve Gio because he's better defensively. I don't like blogs because sometimes they are written by people who don't know much. We'll have to wait and see if Getz totally disappears like you think but for the time being I'll think you're wrong and you will think the same.

[wufan]

It's the off-season, so I'll cut you all some slack, but it's Chris freakin Getz! Good luck to him in his career, but I'll take Hosmer, Giovatelli, Escobar, Moustakis, and Perez! That's exciting stuff right there! Getz is either a mediocre back-up or a moderate failure. Why would any Royals fan care about that one way or another this year?

[shockmonster]

Why do you care? He's a solid pro. for the Royals and he's in there tonight as a late inning defensive replacement for Gio. He has his place to contribute just as the bench players for the Shockers do. Even if he doesn't excite as much as those you mentioned he deserves his due.

[wufan]

Why do you care? He's a solid pro. for the Royals and he's in there tonight as a late inning defensive replacement for Gio. He has his place to contribute just as the bench players for the Shockers do. Even if he doesn't excite as much as those you mentioned he deserves his due.

I don't paticularly. I was questioning why you cared. I guess you care because he's a solid pro and he deserves his due. Respect here by granted!

[SubGod22]

I'll be happy to have someone else fill his roster space next year. The fact that he's been starting there for as long as he had for the Royals says a lot more about the Royals than it did Getz.

[SubGod22]

Undaunted Royals have their way with Tigers

DETROIT -- Pardon Detroit manager Jim Leyland if he was doing a double-take as he watched this Kansas City club rack up 18 hits and whip his first-place Tigers, 9-5.

Everyone in the Royals' starting lineup hit safely in Monday night's victory: Alex Gordon had a home run among four hits; Salvador Perez had his first Major League homer among his three hits; Johnny Giavotella banged a three-run double; and even Alcides Escobar ripped a homer.

"This isn't the Royals team that has been way out of the race from the start," Leyland said. "This is a different team. Some of their younger players are very aggressive. Good-looking young players, they're very athletic and they were very aggressive with the bats tonight."

Most of the damage was inflicted on Tigers starter Max Scherzer and the beneficiary was right-hander Luke Hochevar, who pitched into the eighth inning and picked up his ninth win.

[SubGod22]

Royals undecided on potential callups

DETROIT -- Manager Ned Yost said the Royals still haven't settled on which Minor Leaguers might be September callups, even though that period opens on Thursday.

He's hinted that outfielders Lorenzo Cain and Jarrod Dyson, who are on the 40-man roster, might get a look, along with one or two starting pitchers. Some callups could be delayed because Triple-A Omaha's regular schedule doesn't end until next Monday, and the Storm Chasers also are trying to reach the playoffs. Ditto for Double-A Northwest Arkansas.

"I don't know what pitchers we're going to look at, but [Danny] Duffy's going to have one, maybe two more starts, and we're going to have to get a starting pitcher or two in there," Yost said. "And [Jeff] Francis' innings are getting up. I'm not saying we're going to do anything, but I don't want to take him 70 or 80 innings past what he did last year. It's unfair to him."

Dyson and Cain are no brainers. I'm not sure if they'll call up Monty or not. Mendoza, SOS and Mazzaro are possibilities. Mazarro for sure. Traenor will be back up if that counts. Possibly Navarro. I'd like to see Clint, but where would he play? Only if you give #countrybreakfast a day or two off.

I doubt anyone not named Montgomery who isn't already on the 40 man will be called up. Which means Hererra would have to wait until spring.

It'll be interesting to see what they do with the 40 man in the offseason. But I'll save that discussin for the offseason thread.

[SubGod22]

Making the Royals Contenders – Part 2

In this series, I’ll be trying to look at what the Royals need in order to become contenders and how they should go about getting it. In part one of this series, I looked briefly at the Royals offense and came to the conclusion that it’s not the teams biggest problem, and isn’t likely to be in the near future. Just look at last nights 18 hit barrage the Royals put to the Tigers for an example. No, we have to take a look at the other side of the game to find the Royals true weakness: pitching and defense.

I see preventing runs as three distinct components: starting pitching, relief and defense. All three are naturally tied together and if one is improved the other two are improved. Teasing out exactly how much each component plays into the overall number of runs given up is difficult, so any statistical analysis here will be of the quick and dirty variety.

Let’s start with the defense. It’s extremely difficult to measure defense and even with the advances made recently, the numbers for a single season are not the most reliable. Looking at UZR, the Royals rank 8th among American League teams in defense. From what I’ve seen watching this season, that sounds about right. I think they are an average team defensively. Going position by position based solely on what I’ve seen and heard I’d go with something like this.

I think he makes a fair assessment of the D. But it's pretty solid and would definitely be better with Cain in CF. Would that effect the offense? We may never know

[SubGod22]

Centerfield 2012?

If you ask 100 Royals fans who the biggest surprise of 2011 has been, you’ll get a few different answers, but I think a lot of them will be my answer of Melky Cabrera. When the Royals signed him for $1.25 million in the offseason, my thought was that they intended to use him as a fourth outfielder and see what Jarrod Dyson could do every day in center field or maybe even see what they had in Gregor Blanco. We found out after the Royals acquired Lorenzo Cain in the Zack Greinke deal that Cabrera had been promised a shot at starting, so he would be in the starting lineup. Then there was a glimmer of hope that maybe Jeff Francoeur would be a fourth outfielder and Lorenzo Cain would play center while Melky played right, but that was squashed pretty quickly, too. So the center fielder who Dayton coveted to roam Kauffman Stadium and acquired in his biggest trade to date would be sent to the minors in favor of Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur.

I’m not afraid to admit to you that this was almost a breaking point for me with the Dayton Moore regime. Over the years, I’ve grown pretty tired of bringing veterans in to play over young players. I understand wanting to get someone like Eric Hosmer some more minor league seasoning, but Cain is 25 years old and has played and played well in the big leagues in a short audition at the end of 2010 with the Brewers. Of course I got over it, which I always do when I’m on the verge of walking away from the team I love. Early on in the season Cabrera was okay. He hit .283/.304/.433 in April, which was probably about what most people expected, but maybe a little lighter on OBP and a little heavier on SLG. Melky held course through June and at the end of that month was hitting a perfectly acceptable for a center fielder .277/.316/.428. The OBP was too low for where he was hitting in the order, and he wasn’t playing very good defense, but he was adequately holding the place of Lorenzo Cain who was hitting well in AAA.

Then Melky took off. He had an absolutely huge July hitting .384/.412/.580 with four homers and ten doubles. He’s cooled off a bit in August, but has still hit well with 13 extra base hits and 15 runs batted in. His current season line stands at .304/.338/.475. That is most definitely an acceptable offensive line from a center fielder, but he isn’t without his issues. For one, he’s arbitration eligible this year. He probably won’t get a giant raise, but I could see him getting $3 or $4 million next year before being eligible for free agency. For another, he doesn’t get on base enough. If he could go back to his walk rate of some of his years with the Yankees, then we’d be looking at a potential cornerstone player, which is what the Yankees thought he had the potential to be when they brought him up as a 21 year old. And the third thing is that he’s pretty bad defensively in center. He doesn’t miss fly balls, but he doesn’t have great speed or great instincts. A lot of the running catches that people swoon over have been made because he got a bad read on the ball or because he just isn’t as good as other center fielders and plays are sometimes more difficult for him.

I agree. Get what you can.

Eyes On The Prize

That was… Interesting.

A tough loss is a tough loss. It really doesn’t matter if you’re contending, rebuilding or rolling along with The Process. It’s no fun to cough up a 1 run lead and lose a well played game by a 2-1 count.

That being said, eyes on the prize, people. Eyes on the prize. Yes, Tuesday’s loss sucked, but remember what this season is all about. There will be a few more nights like that over the season’s final month. It’s going to happen. This is a young team that plays a ton of close games. Much has been made of the Royals record in one run contests, but that ignores the larger point that good teams don’t really play in that many one run games. Because they’re blowing teams out on a regular basis. The Yankees have an under .500 record in one-run games. But they’ve played only 34 games decided by a single run. The Royals have played 51 one run games.

You don’t find yourself in a pennant race because of your positive record in one-run games. You find yourself in a pennant race when you can avoid as many of those one-run games as possible.

As The Process evolves, the overall number of one run games should drop considerably. If it doesn’t, The Process isn’t working.

While I’m not going to get too worked up over the loss, at some point this has to stop. Today, it’s a learning experience. If you’re not careful, tomorrow, it’s a habit. The question is when do we raise the bar of expectations? Probably not September because too many crazy things happen with expanded rosters. Is it next April? Dunno, because we may not have the arms to contend again. How about April of 2013? Hell, by then it could be habit. At least we’ll still have Francoeur.

– I don’t understand why they keep pulling Johnny Giavotella for defensive purposes. If they’re emphasizing his need to work on defense (he told Steve Stewart on the pregame show on the radio he’s been doing a ton of extra infield work before games) why wouldn’t the Royals keep him in the field for the full nine innings? Besides, we’ve said this so many times… Getz is not a significant defensive upgrade. At last check, he was at -7 on the Fielding Bible +/- system on balls to his right and was turning fewer than 50% of his double play opportunities. Gio is raw defensively, but Getz isn’t appreciably better that he should be the go-to guy in the late innings when the Royals have the lead. Besides, this is a transitional year. There’s no pennant race and there’s no October baseball. Winning a game (like last night) would be nice, but in the big picture, it really doesn’t matter. Not yet, anyway.

And I fully agree with his comments about Yost and the bullpen. Why do we have so many pitchers in the pen if you aren't going to use them? No wonder Crow has a bad shoulder. Why don't we see Adcock or Teaford? It's been two weeks since either has seen action.