KC Royals - August

[SubGod22]

Making the Royals Contenders – Part 1

The Kansas City Royals are not a contending team –news to nobody, I’m sure. However they are closer than they’ve been to a contender in quite some time. I’m going to embark on a series of articles which will shed some light on how the Royals can become a contender and what the pitfalls will be. Before that though, I need to establish the single most important thing that this team needs to do to become a contender. This is all going to seem a bit elementary, but I want to start down a logical path that will eventually lead us to a solid conclusion.

A few weeks ago, I posted an article about the improvement that this team has shown, especially in regard to the offense. The numbers from then still hold true. The Royals continue to score at a rate of 4.33 runs per game, which is good for 6th in the American League. They still struggle mightily with allowing runs and have dropped to 4.84 runs per game, placing them 12th in the AL.

For the Royals to become contenders, they have to find some way to score more runs than they allow. In the abstract, you can either try and score more runs, or you can try and prevent more runs in an effort to improve your team. To score more runs, the Royals will need to upgrade their lineup. To prevent more runs, the Royals can improve their starting rotation, their defense and their bullpen. See, I told you this would be simple stuff.

I'm interested to see what he has to say about all of this. I do believe that KC isn't far off and they continue to bring in talent that can take over or replace the guys that are playing now. And much of the offense is under team control for awhile. Lets get the starting rotation figured out and take care of some busienss.

[shockmonster]

A good analysis about where the Royals may go for pitching help next year. www.foxsportskansascity.com and look under bullpen providing needed starters.

[SubGod22]

Chen strikes out nine, wins fourth straight

In 7 2/3 innings Chen held the Blue Jays to four hits and matched his career best with nine strikeouts, something he hadn't achieved in more than 10 years.

"Lot of strikes," Chen said. "I was pounding the strike zone. I think Salvador [Perez] and I have been getting more in sync. He's a very good catcher and he's been working with Brayan Pena about how I like to pitch and the kid is very talented and I'm very fortunate that he's catching me."

Sixty-seven of Chen's 92 pitches were in the strike zone.

"He was hitting my glove on every pitch," Perez said. "I had good communication with him."

The Royals accumulated 16 hits, four of them by Jeff Francoeur. Eric Hosmer and Billy Butler each hit a solo home run and Perez drove in two runs with two hits, including a triple.

I kind of hope they bring back Chen next year. He's been solid for the Royals the past two seasons. Hochevar, Duffy, Paulino, Chen and Monty? Maybe it depends if they think they can bring in a top of the rotation guy or not.

[SubGod22]

A good analysis about where the Royals may go for pitching help next year. www.foxsportskansascity.com and look under bullpen providing needed starters.

Interesting. Vinny has pitched well in Omaha and will get a look. I'm not sold on SOS. I know Mendoza has appeared great in Omaha, but he has some numbers that make you question how good he really is. Monty will get a look and you know they continue to work with him. Crow has always made me wonder. I guess it comes down to if his change is any good. I didn't realize Holland had 4 plus pitches. He'd be an interesting candidate, and if he can stretch it out and have success is definitely worth a look. He's been amazing in the pen this year. I know they won't put Soria there, but I've always wondered. He has a number of effective pitches as well.

None of those guys strike me as front end guys. It'll be interesting though.

[SubGod22]

Moose Tracks

You could see this coming a couple of weeks ago… When Mike Moustakas began making “loud” outs. He was hitting the ball with authority, but hitting them right at fielders. In the last week, those “loud” outs have (finally) turned into base hits. With another multi-hit game Tuesday night, Moose is batting above .500 with an on base percentage north of .600 over his last six games. That’s raised his cumulative line from .182/.237/.227 to .212/.270/.267.

It’s only a good week, but it’s a positive sign from a player who’s been struggling mightily over the last couple of months. Looking at the Pitchf/x data applied to hitters, we can see how Moose has transformed his approach at the plate over the last week. Take this with a grain of salt because we’re dealing with obviously small sample sizes.

First let’s look at the pitches Moose offered at from his debut to just before he started mashing the ball.

The next 6 weeks will be interesting.

[shockmonster]

I liked this article because it came from Wathan's point of view as a Royals scout. Some of the information coming out on the net is from bloggers who don't have the inside perspective about where the pitching can come from next year and who has the ability to do it.

[SubGod22]

C’mon Chen!

Bob Fescoe (of 610 sports) tweeted last night that he’d be angry if the Royals brought back Vin Mazzaro and Sean O’Sullivan and let Bruce Chen go. I like Bob Fescoe, I do, but sometimes he gets wrapped up in the moment. And last night, Chen was making a very good case to deserving a multi-year contract from somebody in the offseason. Of course, we all know that there’s more than one night of work from which to base opinions. The argument I made to Fescoe (who never responded) is that bringing back Mazzaro and O’Sullivan was as simple as renewing a contract. In order to bring back Chen, the Royals would have to compete with other teams for his services and that might end up costing the Royals more years and money than Chen is worth.

In my opinion, Chen isn’t worth a whole lot as a free agent. He’s a mediocre pitcher who throws with his left hand and has a lot of personality. Of course, over the last two seasons, Bruce Chen has won 12 games and nine games so far respectively. There are less and less general managers who cater to the win or other statistics that are less important than some of the more advanced ones, but there are still those out there who may be willing to sign Chen to a two year deal worth $6 or $8 million and they’ll give lines that we heard from Allard Baird all the time. They’ll say things like, ‘He’s worth his weight in gold as a veteran presence to show these young guys how it’s done.’ And yes, there is some value in that for a young team, but at the same time you should be looking to acquire good pitching, not guys who are qualified to run a nursery.

Now here’s the part where I may get banished to the basement by those who aren’t into advanced statistics. If you look beyond the baseball card stats, you’ll see that the last two years of Bruce Chen have been aided by luck. His FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) this year is 4.76. In 2000 that would have been pretty okay, but we’re not in that era anymore. We’re in an era where the league average ERA is right around 4.00. His xFIP (Fielding Independent Pitching but correcting for an average home run rate) is 4.59. Last year, the two numbers were essentially reversed. The point is that Chen’s true talent level is around a 4.60 ERA pitcher. You might be thinking that the Royals don’t have too many of them, so why let someone who can do that walk? You also might be thinking that if his true talent level is there then why has he spent two seasons pitching above that talent level?

He brings up some good points, but so does the response to his piece. I like Chen. And I'd be ok with Chen coming back next year for a reasonable amount. Not sure I'd be happy with a 2 year deal though. But I find it hard to believe that we'd have to overpay to keep him. Although, we may have done just that on Frenchy...

We have 2 spots open on next years rotation from what I can tell. If both Vin and SOS fill those..... :banghead:

I may take one of them, but not both.

[SubGod22]

What to expect from Joakim Soria in 2012

As the Royals begin to look to 2012, one question on everyone’s mind is what can we expect from Joakim Soria. Will he bounce back to being an elite closer (like Jonathan Papelbon has this year) or could things get even bumpier next year? Currently Soria’s FIP is 3.60 as compared to the previous three-year average where he maintained an elite 2.82 FIP.

Lots of analysis has been done to show that relievers are a fickle bunch and that fluctuations from year to year are par for the course. But does that also hold for elite relievers? Are elite closers more likely to bounce back or are they more likely to fall apart?

As a quick analysis, I wanted to see what was the likelihood of a bounce back season when a reliever (especially an elite one) had as much of a down year as Soria has had in 20111. I went back to 2001 and looked at pitchers who were primarily relievers throughout their careers (so we are eliminating John Smoltz) and examined seasons where a reliever’s FIP jumped 0.75 as compared to their previous 3 year average (I also put in a requirement that the pitcher had to pitch at least 30 relief innings in those years). I then looked at what happened the following year after the jump in FIP to see if it recovered (i.e. the reliever’s FIP recovered at least half-way back to his previous 3-year average), he maintained that new FIP, or did he in fact get worse (by at least 0.25). Note that in the following table the “Got Worse” bucket also includes those pitchers who were out of baseball due to release or injury the following year and did not reach the 30 IP threshold.

Big League Fun- Blue Jays style

Last night’s game got me thinking about some of those unwritten rules in baseball. Some are absolutely ridiculous while some have some relevance. Specifically, I’m thinking of the way that Yunel Escobar handled getting hit in the fourth inning of last night’s game. For those who didn’t get a chance to watch the game, I’ll give you a recap. On the first pitch of the game, Blue Jays starter Ricky Romero hit Alex Gordon on the elbow. It looked like it hurt a little bit as hard objects that hit an elbow often do. Gordon ended up scoring on Billy Butler’s RBI double. The Royals added a second run in the third and they were up 2-0 heading to the bottom of the fourth with Yunel Escobar leading off. Keep in mind before we go on that Yunel Escobar was batting ahead of Jose Bautista, the big league home run leader this year and the home run champion from last year. And the Royals led by two.

So Escobar steps to the plate and Luke Hochevar ends up hitting him. Someone who understands baseball should know that there was absolutely no way that Luke Hochevar was throwing at him. For one thing, the game was still in question. It was just a two run lead in the fourth inning against a team that has some serious fire power. For another, putting Escobar on base put the tying run at the plate in the name of the guy who has more homers than anybody over the last two years. By a fair amount. For the Royals to have intentionally hit Yunel Escobar in that situation would have been ludicrous and reason enough to check Hochevar’s head to make sure there’s still activity in there. I’m not sure why Escobar thought Hoch hit him on purpose, but if it was in response to Gordon getting plunked, then that’s just silly as well because it was very obvious that Romero didn’t hit Gordon on purpose.

Frank White made the comment during the broadcast that it seems like a situation where a player doesn’t understand the game very well, and I agree with that completely. Ryan Lefebvre, on the other hand, was not so tactful. Of course, the next batter up hit a two run homer and the game was tied. On that home run, Bautista took a second to glare at Hochevar and then admired his work before he began his home run trot. Ryan was having none of this and made the comment that Hochevar didn’t stare into Bautista when Hoch made him look like a four year old in the first inning. I found that pretty darn funny. I also found it amusing that Ryan did not miss any opportunity to say something bad about Yunel Escobar throughout the remainder of the game.

[SubGod22]

What Will It Take for Billy Butler To Be Loved?

Billy Butler went three for five last night with two doubles and two runs batted in. By the end of the evening, his slugging percentage was higher than it has been since May 5th: continuing a rise from an unsatisfactory .406 on July 15th to its current mark of .465.

Currently, Butler’s on-base percentage of .370 is second only to Alex Gordon. His slugging is basically in a tie for second with Melky Cabrera and Jeff Francoeur, again trailing only Alex Gordon (not sure if you noticed, but Alex Gordon is really, really good this year). Billy leads the team in walks, is one of four regulars with more than 30 doubles and is in the heated race to be the team’s home run leader. Admittedly, leading the Royals in home runs is right there with being the tallest midget, but it still counts.

When it comes to the corpulent Mr. Butler, he has a three year run that looks like this:

2009: .301/.362/.492 with 51 doubles, 21 home runs and an OPS+ of 125
2010: .318/.388/.469 with 45 doubles, 15 home runs and an OPS+ of 134, cutting his strikeouts by 25 from 2009 and increasing his walks by 11 in virtually an identical number of plate appearances
2011: .295/.370/.465 with 32 doubles, 16 home runs and an OPS+ of 132
If Butler continues to hit as he has over the past six weeks, he will end up with somewhere around 42 doubles and 21 home runs by season’s end. Along the way this year, Billy has grounded into just 12 double plays after apparently bringing us all to the bring of Armegeddon in 2010 by grounding into a league leading 32.

We all know that Butler is a poor fielder, but luckily the Royals play in a league that allows you to bat a guy who doesn’t have to play in the field – not even once! So yes, Butler’s overall value to the Royals is not as great as that of Gordon, Cabrera and Francoeur given that he brings nothing to the statistical arena when it comes to fielding, but every team in the AL plays with a designated hitter. Ten of those teams basically have full-time designated hitters and among those ten, Billy ranks:

2nd in home runs
2nd in doubles
3rd in RBI (just for Ryan and Frank)
4th in batting average
3rd in on-base percentage
3rd in slugging percentage

[SubGod22]

Butler's work with Seitzer paying off

TORONTO -- When the Royals made a late July trip to Boston, hitting coach Kevin Seitzer took Billy Butler into the Fenway Park batting cages for some extra work.

"We actually made a major adjustment while we were in Boston," Seitzer said. "We really did kind of a slam session to get his swing path changed and to get him a little shorter [to the ball] and stay through the ball and it really worked big-time. And he's really good at taking adjustments into the game."

Part of the objective was to get Butler to hit fewer ground balls and with more power. Starting with the Boston series through the first two games at Toronto, Butler was not only hitting .328 but, in the 29 games, had clouted nine of his 16 home runs and accumulated 32 of his 72 RBIs.

"I'm getting more balls in the air, got my hands a little higher going down through the ball, creating more backspin. [I'm] staying back more, too, and seeing the ball better," Butler said. "Making adjustments is what it's all about and Seitz is the best hitting coach I've ever had and he's got me to make adjustments quicker than I would have on my own."

[SubGod22]

Success North of the Border

It wasn’t a 22 run, 3 grand slam outburst, but if nine runs is enough for a win (as it should be) I’ll take it.

Some quick notes from Thursday’s game:

– All Clark has to do is write a nice post about the man we know as Country Breakfast, and he collects four hits in five plate appearances. Billy Butler’s .374 OBP is tops on the team and he’s second in wOBA at .364. The guy has been on fire the last month and a half. Not surprisingly, my Twitter feed is void of Butler hate.

– I don’t know that Johnny Giavotella would have been my first choice to bat leadoff with Alex Gordon out of the lineup, but Nervous Ned does so many things that defy logic, it wears me out to get irritated. Although the way the top of the order has been clicking, I don’t know who you would drop into that spot. Gio it is!

– By going with that 13 man bullpen, it exposes a thin bench whenever anyone needs to leave the game. It happened again last night when Jeff Francoeur got drilled right below the knee cap in the top of the ninth. That forced Alex Gordon, himself nursing a bruise after being hit by a pitch the previous night, into the field. The good news, we’re less than a week away from when the rosters can expand, so we won’t have to put up with this nonsense much longer. The bad news is, Omaha’s season ends September 5, and they’re probably going to the playoffs. It could be the middle of the month before we see anyone in Kansas City.

– Mike Moustakas had another multi-hit game, his third in a row and fifth in his last eight games. Same approach as I wrote about on Wednesday… Laying off the high fastballs. The strange thing was, the Blue Jays didn’t give him a ton of off speed pitches down in the zone. Almost every slider he saw this series was up in the zone and they hardly threw any change-ups.

[SubGod22]

Notes Le Friday

So the Royals escaped Canada with a series win over a pretty darn good Blue Jays team. It would be interesting to see how the Blue Jays would far in, say, the American League Central as opposed to the toughest division in baseball. The Rays have shown us that the East is winnable, but you have to have some incredible talent. The Blue Jays, though, I think are in that second tier of teams who are pretty decent, but not on the Yankees and Red Sox level. If the Blue Jays had been in the Central since, say, 2000, I bet they would have won three or four division titles by now and made some noise in the post season. They had some really excellent pitching for a few years up there, and might have been able to do some things in a short series.

Onto the usual array of notes to lead you into what looks like a beautiful weekend in Kansas City:

I think I have to start with Mike Moustakas who is absolutely on fire with hits in eight straight games, including five multiple hit games in that stretch. He’s starting to actually hit for some power, which was the most concerning part of his slow start. I expected him to struggle, but I expected him to struggle while launching the occasional 430 foot homer. He’s still sitting on one, but some of the balls he’s hit the last few days indicate to me that he’s just about there and looks like he might terrorize the American League in September. On Tuesday, he hit a single off the wall in left and got thrown out trying to stretch it into a double. Off the bat, it looked like a weak fly ball. The man has some serious pop. In his eight game hitting streak, he has raised his season line from .182/.237/.227 to .222/.280/.280. I’m not going to get too pumped up about that line, but it’s hard to not get excited about a .040/.043/.053 jump in a batting line over the course of just over a week.
Moustakas has a partner in crime in Billy Butler…I’m sorry, #countrybreakfast. He has raised his average back to the .300 level and now has 34 doubles to go along with his 16 homers. He also is tied with Melky Cabrera for the team lead in RBI after the start of the season when people claimed he wasn’t producing enough. Quite frankly, Butler has turned his season around and is showing me that he’s ready to hit .300 with 30 homers as soon as next year. Him becoming a power hitter is something that will make this lineup better in 2012 and will definitely help with the goal of contending as soon as next year. Everybody seems to forget this, but he’s only 25 years old and there might be one more push of improvement in him before he reaches his peak where he can become one of the biggest middle of the order threats in baseball. And no, that’s not a shot at his weight.

[shockmonster]

Did anyone notice who started in place of Alcides Escobar at SS yesterday? It was Getz who made some not spectacular but decent throws and plays. It appears that he is the plan to back up the three infield positions for the time being as a utility infielder (not just 2b).

[SubGod22]

Did anyone notice who started in place of Alcides Escobar at SS yesterday? It was Getz who made some not spectacular but decent throws and plays. It appears that he is the plan to back up the three infield positions for the time being as a utility infielder (not just 2b).

Only because they have NO other options.

[shockmonster]

You are correct. He's their best option but there are many players who prolong their career because they know the best way to hang on is to play a limited role and be happy and coaches are happy to have them. Examples of players who had limited abilities and hung on (from 6-15 yrs) include: Tom Owen (former Shocker Qb), Greg Dreiling, Koy Hill, Koy Detmer, Steve Pelluer, John Friesz, Nick Punto, Don Zimmer, Ed Kirkpatrick (royals and many other teams for a 15 yr. career). The Royals aren't going to take a young player who needs to play by bringing him up the major leagues to sit. Getz could bounce around for a while between AAA and the Bigs for a good career.