KC Royals - August

[SubGod22]

For some weekend catch up. Francoeur's throw measured scientifically

Part of ESPN Sports Science host John Brenkus' description: "From his 20-foot lead off first, Peralta motors roughly 170 feet to third in 6.3 seconds, averaging more than 18 miles per hour. In most circumstances, this would ensure him safe at third. But Francoeur doesn't hit the cut-off man or bounce the ball in, instead throwing a perfect strike to Mike Moustakas.

"The ball leaves Francoeur's hand at almost 95 miles per hour, more than four miles an hour faster than the average Major League fastball. And while most pitches travel roughly 55 feet from the pitcher's release point to the batter, Francoeur's strike flies 242 feet -- about four-and-a-half times farther."

Quick pitch called against Chen. This was a BS call. The batter was more than ready.

Royals want foundation for quick-pitch rule

"It's the umpire's judgment," Yost said. "That's what it says in the rulebook. I don't think it's a quick pitch. The hitter was ready. He had his hands on the bat; he was set in the box. We've done it numerous times over the year and it's never been called a quick pitch before."

Moustakas given room to grow in Kansas City

"Because he's facing much better competition here. For the same reason they didn't send George Brett, Mike Schmidt, Robin Yount after 250 at-bats hitting .215," Yost said. "It's the same thing. This is nothing new. He's not breaking new ground here by struggling. A lot of people do. He's good enough that he'll figure it out."

Moustakas had a couple of two-hit games in this week's Tampa Bay series and he obviously has not let his hitting woes affect him at third base.

"He's playing spectacular defense," Yost said.

"You go through these things. That's why we brought him up, so he could go through them now," Yost said. "He's getting better, he'll figure it out."

Treanor still waiting for rehab clearance

CHICAGO -- Royals catcher Matt Treanor took his latest round of tests on Sunday to determine his recovery from a concussion sustained in a home-plate collision on July 31 at Cleveland.

Results could be known by Monday to determine if he's cleared to start an injury rehabilitation assignment in the Minor Leagues.

Treanor has been transferred to the 15-day disabled list because his two-week limit on the concussion DL has expired

Red-hot Melky swings into No. 3 spot

CHICAGO -- With first baseman Eric Hosmer getting a break from the starting lineup on Sunday, hot-hitting Melky Cabrera was dropped from the second spot into Hosmer's usual third spot.

In the first six games of the road trip, Cabrera was a .500 hitter (12-for-24) with two doubles, two homers and eight RBIs -- five in one game against Tampa Bay. Both home runs were three-run shots in the ninth inning.

"He's really killin' the ball," manager Ned Yost said.

Matter of fact, going into the road trip finale, Cabrera was the Major Leagues' top hitter since July 2 at an even .400 (60-for-150) in 37 games, 14 points ahead of next-best Dustin Pedroia of the Red Sox. Overall, Cabrera's average was .312.

[SubGod22]

Of Moose And Men.

Last night, Mike Moustakas played third base, as he has done in virtually every game since he was called up in early June, and batted 8th, as he has done in most every game since last Sunday – and, I’m guessing, never in his entire life before that.

He struck out in his first plate appearance against Jake Peavy. His second time up, he hit a liner right back to Peavy. His third time up, he jumped on a hanging breaking ball and lined it straight to the rightfielder. His final time at-bat, leading off the 9th against flamethrowing lefty Chris Sale with the Royals down a run, he grounded out weakly to the first baseman.

Four times up, four times made out, and it’s telling that having two hard-hit balls represents some kind of progress for Moustakas. Moustakas played in his 50th major-league game last night. After homering in his second career game, he hasn’t done so since. He endured a 2-for-49 stretch in mid-July, and after breaking out of that slump – if you can call going 7-for-27 a slumpbuster – he’s now 6-for-44 since. Since the 4th of July, Moustakas is 15-for-118, a .127 average, with just four extra-base hits (all doubles) and four walks. He’s 0-for-31 against the White Sox in his short career. He’s 4-for-47 against left-handed pitching. He’s 7-for-56 with runners in scoring position. From the 7th inning on, he’s 7-for-64. And so on.

Remember what a horrible hitter Alcides Escobar was before he suddenly caught fire in early June? After going 0-for-4 on June 6th, Escobar was hitting .203/.237/.236. In 212 at-bats, he had seven extra-base hits (all doubles) and nine walks.

In 183 at-bats, Moustakas is hitting .187/.241/.235 with seven extra-base hits (six doubles, one homer) and 13 walks. And he’s unlikely to contend for a Gold Glove at shortstop.

Prospects, even top prospects, have been known to struggle in their first exposure to major-league pitching. On some level, every rookie has endured the difficulties that Moustakas has dealt with. But very few rookies have endured this much difficulty.

How few? I decided to make a list of every third baseman who, in the year he debuted in the major leagues, batted 175 or more times with an OBP of under .250 and a slugging average of under .250.

Mike Moustakas is the first name on that list. He is also the last name on that list. No third baseman has ever debuted as poorly as Moustakas has in so many at-bats.

So I decided to expand the list to look at players at any position, with the same criteria as above – 175+ plate appearances, sub-.250 OBP and sub-.250 SLG. Seven other players met those criteria – but just one since 1972, and just three since World War II.

The Royals Need An Ace, But Does It Makes Sense to Get One?

The lineup that takes the field these days is pretty much your Kansas City Royals of 2012 and, maybe even 2013. You could insert Lorenzo Cain into one of the outfield spots in place of Cabrera or Francoeur and, as several commentors are likely to point out, maybe make a change at second base in the future, but otherwise THIS is your starting nine for the foreseeable future:

Gordon LF
Cabrera CF
Butler DH
Hosmer 1B
Francoeur RF
Giavotella 2B
Perez C
Moustakas 3B
Escobar SS
I am not going to lie: I like it. If you read my musings here on a regular basis, you know I would like it even more if Cain was inserted in place of either Cabrera or Francoeur (I go back and forth on which one), but as a blogger I need something to ***** about, don’t I?

This lineup, right now, might be the best combination of offense and defense the Royals have put on the field since the early part of the 21st century. It certainly projects as a really decent to maybe even very good group next year and the season after that, particularly when you keep in mind that should Melky and the Frenchmen revert to their old ways the Royals have Cain and Wil Myers (even David Lough) as outfielders in waiting.

The bullpen, well, we have watched that since Opening Day and it is predominately young and exciting. Like most, I have grown weary of Tim Collins jousting with the mystery that is the major league strike zone and there is concern that Joakim Soria may never quite get back to being JOAKIM SORIA, but there is not a lot to dislike with this unit – other than it consists of an absurd eight relievers. As an aside, how many of you remember the days when teams routinely had just FOUR relievers in the bullpen and certainly no more than five? Oh, how the times have changed.

The Process, while still banking heavily on the fact that virtually every prospect the Royals bring up will entrench himself as at least a solid every day regular, is rolling along. The lineup is basically in place and the bullpen (with Kelvin Herrera, Kevin Chapman and others soon to follow) is solid, bordering on great if Soria gets it all back in order. We all feel good, the sun is shining bright, the birds are singing and then, whammo, some SOB brings up the starting rotation.

To be honest, I actually thought the Royals’ starting rotation in 2011 might actually be worse than it has been. That is not to say it is average or even acceptably below average, but it has not been god awful horrific: maybe that’s something. Certainly, there are worse things than heading into 2012 with a starting rotation of Paulino, Duffy, Hochevar, Francis and Chen. I doubt that the Royals do that, however, given that the money spent to re-sign both Francis and Chen would probably not be the bargain it was this year and, frankly, that is still not a very good starting rotation.

Not sure how I feel about trading top prospects at this point for an 'ace'. Not at the level that has been projected. We have some more pitchers who appear to be getting close and I'm ok waiting for them. I'd have no problem with the Royals trying to find a pitcher in free agency. Probably more along the lines of a number 3 guy I'd guess. I'm curious to see what Monty does when given a shot in September. But Paulino, Hoch and Duffy are a pretty good core at this point.

[SubGod22]

Treanor nearing rehab assignment

KANSAS CITY -- Royals catcher Matt Treanor has been cleared to begin a Minor League rehab assignment and will start playing in rehab games on Wednesday.

Treanor has been out with a concussion since a collision forced him out of a game against the Indians on July 30. He was first placed on the seven-day disabled list, then transferred to the 15-day DL.

Treanor will leave on Tuesday to play with the Northwest Arkansas Naturals, the Royals' Double-A affiliate. The Naturals are off Tuesday, then they begin a homestand against the Frisco RoughRiders on Wednesday.

[SubGod22]

Some Random Thoughts on the Royals

Bubba Starling signed last night for $7.5m. It’s ridiculous that the Commissioners office won’t let over-slot deals through until the last moment. As one of my friends put it “That’s a lot of cheddar for an 18 year old.” Yep. I hope he’s worth it. At first, I wasn’t completely thrilled with the pick, but as I learned more I’m fully supportive of it. I like the high-risk, high-reward thought process. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

Johnny Giavotella has four extra-base hits in 44 plate appearances, Chris Getz had 8 in 396. Why wasn’t this move made sooner?

You know what’s really frustrating? The fact that the Royals have scored more runs per game and given up fewer runs per game than the Minnesota Twins, yet they are still below them in the standings. I can’t believe for one second that the Twins are better than the Royals. This is a mirage at the moment, and I think the Royals have a great shot at surpassing them before the end of the season.

Now that a good portion of the future is occupying spots on the Major League roster, guys in the Minors have been kind of over-looked. Wil Myers is likely the top position player in the Royals system, so how’s he doing? His current slash line is .251/.350/.368. It’s nothing to go crazy over, but it’s good to see him have a high on-base percentage. Myers has an advanced approach and he has no problems taking a walk. I saw him walk at least four times in back-fields spring training games. He’s continuing to do that at AA, however I’d like to see a higher slugging percentage. If he’s laying off pitches until he gets a good one, I’d like to see him drive it out of the park. Either way, I’m not concerned. The kid is still very young and very good.

These are a few that caught my eye. There are a few more.

[SubGod22]

Those filthy Yankees!

For those of you who read my work on my old site and have followed me over here, you know that every so often I like to get a little personal. I’m still going to make you guess if I wear boxers or briefs and I’ll reveal that answer creatively in Friday’s notes column, but I want to talk a little bit about where I’ve come from as a Royals fan. Without giving away my age too accurately, I can tell you that I missed the glory days for the most part. I was around for the 1985 World Series, but I don’t remember it. I’m told I clapped, though. I’m told I clapped a lot. I really owe my baseball fandom to my parents who at a young age instilled into me what a great game baseball is. From there I developed my own loves within the game including my love for statistical analysis which I’ve said before my actually hamper my enjoyment at times.

I’m not sure if being a Royals fan whose life spans the darkest days of Royals history makes me a great fan or just an idiot, but either way I’m here. I’ve really had the opportunity to experience one pennant race in my life, and that was the fluke pennant race of 2003. I’m not going to pretend like I didn’t love it, though. Last night was the perfect storm for me to get my mind rolling about what I hope for from the Royals organization and what they can provide me as a fan. As you all know by now, the Royals signed Bubba Starling, their first round draft pick. He will begin life as a Royal soon and hopefully becomes one of the greats. I was at the game last night, and it was interesting to see various Royals fans checking their phones throughout the game to see if there was any update on Bubba.

Of course, the Royals also played the Yankees last night and lost. It wasn’t a particularly eventful game from the perspective of the Royals and their fans. The team took a lead and then gave it away quickly before pretty much slinking quietly into the night. Yankees fans were raucous, but more on that shortly. I got to thinking about how, on August 15, the game was secondary to Royals fans. We have been conditioned so greatly that the future is more important than the present that people put more importance on whether or not Bubba Starling signed than the game that they paid good money to see in person. To their credit, they’re right. The Royals are going nowhere in 2011 and the future is where hope lies. My hope is that it all comes together to the point that the draft pick signing deadline is secondary to baseball.

I’ve been a fan for so long that I just can’t even fathom the joy and the passion that I would have for the Royals in a real live pennant race. If last night’s game was between the first place Royals and the second place Yankees, the crowd would have been electric. As it was, there were just urination matches between Royals and Yankees fans to see who could shout their team names louder during the “Let’s go Royals” chant (or as my niece says, “Yet’s go Rowals!” – it’s adorable). I get so excited when I watch guys like Eric Hosmer blast a double to the alley or Johnny Giavotella get three hits or Salvador Perez pick a runner off from third. It gets me thinking about how good things can be for the Royals in the future and how all the off field stuff will become secondary. I love that the Royals have a great minor league system, but I am hopeful that the days of their results being more important than the big club’s are over.

I think most of us can relate

[ShockerFever]

Sometimes Sub, I think you're the only one who cares about the Royals.

[wufan]

I care! I read these threads regularly, though I rarely have anything to add.

[ShockerFever]

I care! I read these threads regularly, though I rarely have anything to add.

My deepest sympathies..


:whistle:

[wufan]

I care! I read these threads regularly, though I rarely have anything to add.

My deepest sympathies..


:whistle:

Yet you have contributed so much! ;-)

[SubGod22]

Squeezed

Who hates the Yankees? Me! A couple of notes from last night’s marathon loss.

– Obviously, the Yankees are poised for another October run, but color me unimpressed with their starting pitching. Ivan Nova and AJ Burnett just don’t look like they should be in the rotation of a team with post season dreams. But when you’re scoring 5.4 runs per game, I suppose you can live with that. Plus, it seems like Girardi has his bullpen rotation down. He’s gone Logan, Soriano, Robertson and Rivera – in that order – both nights of the series.

– It stinks that seven runs isn’t enough.

– I loved the Ned Yost ejection in the fourth inning. One of my favorite things is baseball is when the manager makes a visit to the mound, not to talk with his pitcher, but to give the home plate umpire and earful when he comes to break up the meeting.

At this point in Tuesday’s game, Danny Duffy was hot. He was getting battered around by the Yankee lineup like speed bag and on top of that, he was getting squeezed by home plate umpire Kerwin Danley. Let’s be honest… Danley was awful behind the plate. Here is how MLB Gameday charted Duffy’s pitches to Russell Martin in the second inning:

This isn't the first game Duffy hasn't gotten calls. And I'm not talking simply the borderline calls that many pitchers get, but good quality strikes.

[SubGod22]

Luke Hochevar and the Benefit of Pitching Inconsistency by Tim Kniker

Survey one hundred Royals fan, and if you ask them to describe Luke Hochevar in one word, the number one response on the Family Feud board would likely be “Inconsistency.” Last week, Nick Scott over at Royals Authority wrote a whole article about it HERE

He specifically focused on Hochevar’s batter-to-batter inconsistency, showing the wide splits in Hochevar’s performance when there are men on base versus empty bases.

This is a great analysis if you are focused on what is the possibility of Hochevar improving in the future. However, let’s go all Dennis Green and say “He is who we thought he is” and assume that within the game Hochevar is simply an inconsistent pitcher. This leads us to two questions:

Does this in-game inconsistency actually lead to game to game inconsistency?; and

If so, what does this truly cost the Royals in the loss column?

If we look at Hochevar’s ninety starts the Royals have allowed 480 runs which is 5.33 runs per game. The standard deviation of the allowed runs per game is 3.31 runs per game in his starts. How does this compare to other pitchers?. To do this, I looked at all 541 pitchers who started at least 20+ games from 2000 – 2010 and calculated a normalized variability metric.*

* In a “Just Trust Me” moment, our metric is the formula (Std Dev./1.547) / (RA/G0.456). The exponent 0.456 makes it such that there is no correlation between the variability metric and the pitcher’s average allowed runs per game. The 1.547 coefficient normalizes things so that the pitcher with average variability is set to 1.00. Also, I do realize that by looking at the team’s runs allowed (as opposed to just the pitcher’s RA/9IP) does incorporate the pitcher’s bullpen, but hey, let’s just roll with it and see where it goes.

So, when doing this, Hochevar’s variability metric is 0.998, that is Hochevar’s in-game inconsistency does not translate to any more variability game to game than a normal pitcher. If we take out Hochevar’s 2011 (and the much improved Royals’ bullpen), then, Hochevar’s variability metric does rise to 1.039. This would have made him 3.9% more inconsistent game to game than the average pitcher. Even with this higher level of variability through 2010, 144 pitchers were still more inconsistent than Hochevar.

So for this set of 541 starting pitchers, I categorized them in a 3×3 matrix, based on the average runs allowed/game when they started and their variability. Pitchers who allowed 4.4 runs or less were put in the Good category and those greater than 4.8 were put in the Bad category. In terms of variability, those whose variability metric was 1.03 or greater where in the Inconsistent bucket, while those with a metric of 0.97 or less were put in the consistent bucket.

Interesting. I don't fully undestand all of these numbers they trot out, but it works.

[martymoose]

Too bad they Royals can play the Yankees every game...The Royals would have a much better record.

[SubGod22]

Preserving Duffy among Royals' priorities

"He threw the ball good; his command was not good," manager Ned Yost said. "He got hit in the calf [with a batted ball in the second inning], and I think that had something to do with it. He was different from that point on. I even had Nate [Adcock] warming up in the third inning because I didn't know if it was affecting him or not."

No decision has been made on who will replace Duffy in the rotation, but right-hander Vin Mazzaro, who is 5-2 with a 4.72 ERA in 18 starts for Omaha, is one possibility.

Vin has pitched well in Omaha, but I'm hoping Monty gets a look next month.

[ShockerGorilla]

Frenchy signs a 2-year extension

[SubGod22]

Royals Authority on the Frenchy signing... I can't argue. Frenchy is what he is, but you know Cabrera is coming back, unless there's an offseason trade, and Cain is ready. Plus, you could make the argument that Lough is ready. Are they planning on using Cain as a 4th outfielder? That seems odd to me. And when is Gordon's contract up? He's turned the corner and should be signed to an extension. He's much more valuable than Frenchy. Are they planning on Frenchy being in RF until Myers is ready?