2016 NCAA Volleyball Tournament

[flyingMoose]

You mean Hawaii and Southern Cal aren't that close to Minnesota? While UNI is about 220 miles from there or roughly have the distance to Manhattan. I guess if you are Hawaii another 2,000 miles won't make much difference. Why not Hawaii to UCLA cutting their one-way trip from 4,000 miles to 2,000 miles and Murray State to Minnesota cutting them from 2,000 miles to 800 miles.

Obviously, proximity isn't the end all and be all. And I suppose with 75% of the national seeds/hosts from the Big 10, Big 12 and Pac 12 someone is bound to have to travel.

Obviously, there a consideration other than proximity at work. I'm sure it's harder than it looks.

The mileage cutoff for driving versus flying is 400 miles. The Committee is tasked to minimize the number of fly-ins, so to them flying 500 miles is the same as flying 2000 miles (I think). And I agree wholeheartedly with your last sentence.

[1972Shocker]

The mileage cutoff for driving versus flying is 400 miles. The Committee is tasked to minimize the number of fly-ins, so to them flying 500 miles is the same as flying 2000 miles (I think). And I agree wholeheartedly with your last sentence.

Still a 4,000 mile trip for Hawaii seems excessive but maybe they are used to it. Probably $5,000 more for the team to fly vs say to LA which isn't all that big of a deal but that is a lot of time sitting in an airplane or airport with a 4 hour time change.

[flyingMoose]

I think all 3 Valley teams are capable of winning their 1st round matches (and perhaps about an equal chance all 3 could lose those matches).

The latest Pablo numbers are up and someone on VT has calculated these probabilities of interest.

[U][COLOR=#ffd700][B]Shockers[/B][/COLOR] at Lincoln Subregional[/U]

[B]                  First Round        Sweet 16[/B]
Wichita State        69.67%            7.86%
TCU                  30.33%            1.35%
New Hampshire         0.66%            0.10%
Nebraska             99.34%           90.69%


[U]Missouri State at Manhattan Subregional
[/U]
[B]                  First Round        Sweet 16[/B]
Ohio State           55.57%           28.32%
Missouri State       44.43%           20.22%
Lipscomb             33.03%           13.16%
Kansas State         66.97%           38.29%


[U]Northern Iowa at Lawrence Subregional
[/U]
[B]                  First Round        Sweet 16[/B]
Creighton            63.87%           28.88%
Northern Iowa        36.13%           11.63%
Samford               3.33%            0.21%
Kansas               96.67%           59.27%

[flyingMoose]

I forgot to check - was there a Coach's Show last night?

[1972Shocker]

I forgot to check - was there a Coach's Show last night?

According to the schedule there was. Unfortunately, I missed it if it did happen. That was the last show of the year on the schedule. I don't know if they might add another show next Monday or not.

[flyingMoose]

The latest Pablo numbers are up and someone on VT has calculated these probabilities of interest.

[U][COLOR=#ffd700][B]Shockers[/B][/COLOR] at Lincoln Subregional[/U]

[B]                  First Round        Sweet 16[/B]
Wichita State        69.67%            7.86%
TCU                  30.33%            1.35%
New Hampshire         0.66%            0.10%
Nebraska             99.34%           90.69%


[U]Missouri State at Manhattan Subregional
[/U]
[B]                  First Round        Sweet 16[/B]
Ohio State           55.57%           28.32%
Missouri State       44.43%           20.22%
Lipscomb             33.03%           13.16%
Kansas State         66.97%           38.29%


[U]Northern Iowa at Lawrence Subregional
[/U]
[B]                  First Round        Sweet 16[/B]
Creighton            63.87%           28.88%
Northern Iowa        36.13%           11.63%
Samford               3.33%            0.21%
Kansas               96.67%           59.27%

Missouri State easily has the best chance of the Valley teams to advance to the Sweet 16 as K-State has the weakest Pablo of the National Seeds. If the Shockers were in Manhattan, their chances (according to Pablo) of advancing to the Sweet 16 would be 30.6% compared to 35.0% for Kansas State.

[flyingMoose]

According to the schedule there was. Unfortunately, I missed it if it did happen. That was the last show of the year on the schedule. I don't know if they might add another show next Monday or not.

Me, too. I saw it on the schedule and then forgot to check in to see if it really happened.

[Cdizzle]

I hate all NCAA selection committees.

[LuskingforGuttin]

Missouri State easily has the best chance of the Valley teams to advance to the Sweet 16 as K-State has the weakest Pablo of the National Seeds. If the Shockers were in Manhattan, their chances (according to Pablo) of advancing to the Sweet 16 would be 30.6% compared to 35.0% for Kansas State.

I like this Pablo guy's numbers. Does he like us in men's basketball too?

[Cdizzle]

I like this Pablo guy's numbers. Does he like us in men's basketball too?

No one likes you in men's basketball. It's why you're still averaging 500 fans a game even though the tickets are free.

[WuDrWu]

So 10th NCAA tourney......

5 Trips to Nebraska

2 Trips to Kansas

1 at least to Texas

Where were the other 2?

Seriously, 50% of the time to Nebraska? Wtf

[Cdizzle]

If they're going to continually screw WSU, they could at least let them have the trip to Hawaii.

[ShockdaWorld]

No kidding. Who in their right minds WANTS to go to Nebraska?

[flyingMoose]

I like this Pablo guy's numbers. Does he like us in men's basketball too?

Pablo is a power rating of sorts, along the lines of the Elo ratings that are used in the chess world. The difference in the ratings of two teams gives the probability of the higher rated team winning.

The fellow that does the Pablo calculations (he is not Pablo - I forget the derivation of the name if I ever knew it) only does this for volleyball. The entire set of numbers is recalculated each week so that the average team has a value of 5000. Differently, Elo makes minor adjustments to current values based on recent results.

In the current set of values, Nebraska is highest with 7475 and Alcorn State is the lowest with 1365. Samford is just a tick above average. The season-ending values will carry over to next year, but are phased out and by the fourth (fifth?) week , the values are based entirely on the current season.

Sorry - far more than anyone wanted to know. Or do you want to talk integrated normal distribution? :)

[flyingMoose]

So 10th NCAA tourney......

5 Trips to Nebraska

2 Trips to Kansas

1 at least to Texas

Where were the other 2?

Seriously, 50% of the time to Nebraska? Wtf

Nebraska - 2004, 2007, 2011, 2015, 2016
Kansas - 2012, 2013
Texas - 2008
Iowa State - 2009
Oklahoma - 2010