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  • MVC After 1/3 done

    After a third of the season is done looks like this.
    I am putting them in order based upon the tie breaking procedures of the MVC.

    - Head to Head/Round robin record)
    - Point values are the 20 for road against #1, 19 for home win against #1., 18, 17 for #2, etc.
    - RPI


    The remaining schedule is based upon adding up the possible points they can earn for winning the rest of the games (using current point values).

    1. UNI 6-0
    The have earned all 51 tie breaking points. This puts their schedule as easier than WSU. Road wins include #3 IL state, #6 CU and #8 SIU. Remaining schedule point value is 120.

    2. WSU 5-1.
    Loss at Il State (UNI won at Il St). Has earned 45 of 61 points. Has played 3 IL St, 5 MSU, and 4 In St. on the road. Next up at #6 CU. This will leave the current play in teams and UNI on the road. Remaining schedule 114. Easier remaining schedule than UNI.

    3. Il St 4-2.
    Have earned 25 of 56 possible points. They have played the 3rd easiest schedule in regards to possible points earned. This is largely due to having played #10 EU twice already. Best win is against WSU. Rest of wins have been against play in teams. Remaining schedule - 123.

    4. In State (3-3) (1-0 round robin)
    Have earned 18 of 47 possible points. They have played the easiest schedule and only have a 3-3 record to show for it. The only team with winning record they have played - WSU. Other 2 losses are against play in teams. Remaining Schedule - 140. ouch.

    5. MSU (3-3) (0-0 round robin)
    MSU would have been 4th based upon points with 20 of 65 possible points. MSU has played all three of the top teams (1-2), but they have also played 3 games against play in teams (2-1). Are they a contender or pretender? My prediction 4th at best. Remaining schedule - 122.

    6. CU (3-3) (0-1 round robin)
    Have earned 12 of 61 points. They are in this position by beating the bad (3-0 against play in teams) and losing to those above them (0-3). On the season they have not beat a team in the top 100 RPI. remaining schedule - 126.

    7. BU (2-4) (1-1) (17 points) (RPI 96)
    Has played a tough schedule earning 17 of 72 points). The good, they still have 2 games against EU. The bad, they lost to SIU at home. Remaining schedule 127.

    8. SIU (2-4) (1-1) (17) (RPI 137)
    Hard team to figure against the top 5 of the valley that are 1-2. Against the bottom 5 of the Valley (1-2). 17 out of 69 earned. Remaining 130.

    9. DU (2-4) (1-1) (17) RPI 227.
    17 of 63 points earned to date. Remaining 136. With the win against MSU are the starting to figure it out? Is MSU coming back to earth? or was it the way the basketball bounces? With 5 games still against the top 3 in the valley things don't become easy for the bulldogs.

    10. EU (0-6)
    They have played the toughest schedule of 85 points. The outlook for the rest of the season, the bad they still have 2 vs WSU and 1 vs UNI. The good - they still have all 6 games vs the other 3 play in teams (SIU, BU, DU). remaining 127.

  • #2
    Thanks for the analysis. After seeing every team play at-least once (TV etc.), I think Indiana St. Bradley, Drake and Evansville will be the play-in teams.
    Spoiler Alert: Bruce Willis was dead the whole time!

    Comment


    • #3
      So, the Shocks have the easiest road from here to the Valley Tourney?

      (Although, we still have 2 against UNI)

      Comment


      • #4
        A few things I see from this.

        Remaining schedules.
        WSU has the easiest remaining schedule based upon current standings (2 games vs EU and SIU). Which stresses the point gotta take care of UNI at home.

        In State is gonna drop. 5 against the top 3, 3 against those tied for 4th.

        BU/CU/SIU is a race to watch. who's gonna figure it out.

        Comment


        • #5
          Very interesting way to look at the situation. Commendable.
          "I not sure that I've ever been around a more competitive player or young man than Fred VanVleet. I like to win more than 99.9% of the people in this world, but he may top me." -- Gregg Marshall 12/23/13 :peaceful:
          ---------------------------------------
          Remember when Nancy Pelosi said about Obamacare:
          "We have to pass it, to find out what's in it".

          A physician called into a radio show and said:
          "That's the definition of a stool sample."

          Comment


          • #6
            I have a BAD feeling about the game at Bradley.......very bad feeling
            The mountains are calling, and I must go.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by wsushox1
              I have a BAD feeling about the game at Bradley.......very bad feeling
              While it will be senior night for that game, hopefully Bradley will have given up by then.
              Spoiler Alert: Bruce Willis was dead the whole time!

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by ShockTalk
                At this point in the Valley race, UNI is the clear favorite. They may not go undefeated, but I don't see they losing more than 2.

                The race for the 2 seed in the Valley tournament looks interesting. WSU, Mo St, and Ill St are the most likely competitors.

                Mo St and In St has caused some real concerns for many other Valley teams. They were to be the other two play-in teams. Mo St won't be there and In St probably not. In St is still untested in the Valley as they have not played any of the other top 4 teams as yet. That will change with all four of their next games. If In St wins just one of those games, Bradley, Creighton, and SIU may be scrambling to stay out of Thursday's games. Who would have thunk it!

                One big thing in the Shocker's favor, is that they finish the season with 3 of 4 games at home. The problem is getting there. The Shocks will be facing their own sizeable test and it won't be for just 4 games. They play 6 of their next 9 on the road and their 3 homes games are UNI, Ill St and In St. Nevertheless, having already played Ill St and Mo St on the road and sitting at 4-1, the Shox future is in their own hands.

                :wsu_posters: :clap: :wsu_posters:
                Nice work jdmee. You added good substance to my mere random thoughts I posted on 1/10.

                And I'm still stickin' with that. I think In St has a 50/50 chance of staying out of the play-in round. Now that Drake's woken up, this could be a great Valley race from top to bottom!

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by wsushox1
                  I have a BAD feeling about the game at Bradley.......very bad feeling
                  That's quite a while from now. We play 4 of the next 6 on the road.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Well reasoned analysis, thank you.
                    “Losers Average Losers.” ― Paul Tudor Jones

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I couldn't care less about Bradley right now.

                      These guys need to win at CU Saturday and annouce their presence with authority.


                      :wsu_posters: :goshocks: :posterwu: :posterwsu:

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I couldn't care less about Bradley right now.

                        These guys need to win at CU Saturday and annouce their presence with authority.


                        :wsu_posters: :goshocks: :posterwu: :posterwsu:

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by WuDrWu
                          I couldn't care less about Bradley right now.

                          These guys need to win at CU Saturday and annouce their presence with authority.


                          :wsu_posters: :goshocks: :posterwu: :posterwsu:
                          What he said!!

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by WuDrWu
                            I couldn't care less about Bradley right now.

                            These guys need to win at CU Saturday and annouce their presence with authority.


                            :wsu_posters: :goshocks: :posterwu: :posterwsu:
                            What he said!

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Some things are worth saying twice!

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